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The New Conservatives

Posted September 27, 2009 10:11 AM

Analysts indicate that even though the economic recovery has begun, consumer spending will not lead us in the recovery. Consumers, they project, will spend less and try to save more. It may take a decade-plus for confidence to be restored to pre-Recession levels. Is the same new conservatism going to take hold in manufacturing, threatening a longer, shallower slope to the industrial recovery curve? What does that mean for job creation?

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#1

Re: The New Conservatives

09/28/2009 6:29 AM

Given that the political class here in America are making all the wrong moves towards an economic recovery, I don't see the recovery being as robust as it should be, and the economic doldrums will be extended.

Once they admit that FDR's policies were wrong and it was the material demands of WWII that ultimately pulled us out of depression, then we will move forward. But taking ever increasing amounts of capital out of the system through taxes, printing money like it was newspaper, and thwarting competition by government take over will inevitably lead our economy into third world banana republic status. Unless we elect people who will cut taxes and promote a strong dollar while decreasing the size and scope of government burdens, we will be stuck in this mess for a long time to come.

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#2

Re: The New Conservatives

09/28/2009 8:37 AM

GA to Jerry. The administration acts like it has its own money. It is the money of hard working Americans that has been co opted and redirected toward the programs dreamed up by people who have never had a meaningful job or tried to earn a profit. They are supposed to be working for us and until we fire the lot of them and get some accountability we can expect more of the same. To make matters worse, they take us for granted and call us tea baggers.

A pox on their house!

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#3

Re: The New Conservatives

09/28/2009 8:56 AM

What do you expect? We elected a president that is a known card carrying communist. This was known before the election but covered up by the pinko press. The american voters are swayed by celibrity and not fact. I can not for the life of me figure out why anyone would be swayed by the opinion of a bunch of actors. These are people that make a living by playing make believe. They work, live, eat and sleep in a make believe world and never come into touch with reality and the american public is swayed by their opinion... Good Grief... How dumb can you get?

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#4
In reply to #3

Re: The New Conservatives

09/28/2009 9:19 AM

as a guest, the remarks you made are valueless

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#8
In reply to #3

Re: The New Conservatives

09/29/2009 10:36 AM

Pretty Dumb!

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#5

Re: The New Conservatives

09/28/2009 2:57 PM

The true question is what is the real pre-recession level?

The U.S.'s (and most other Western nations) unrestricted growth in consumer, corporate and government credit of 1982 - 2007 has artificially skewed the data. Goods and services procured on credit place an IOU on future earnings. For 25 years the West juiced growth by borrowing from the future.

Now the future is here and the invoice is being presented. People in two of the three sectors realize the problem is not a liquidity crunch that the government keeps trying to solve by injecting money into banks. What people intuitively know is their problems arise from too much debt. Now, consumers an businesses are cutting back on expenditures to pay down their accumulated debt.

Governments around the world, on the other hand, have decided that what the situation requires is yet more debt. Politicians make promises to get elected. Their actions, such as encouraging people to buy a car today by issuing debt to subsidize car purchases, work for a short while. Car sales are up. But will they remain up? Of course not - the purchasers of tomorrow made their purchase today to get the subsidy. But tomorrow, we will be back to moribund levels until people (both privately and corporately) know they have their debt back to manageable levels.

The "cash for clunkers" is a real canary in the coal mine. For the first time, not only did the government borrow money from the future (by issuing bonds) to pay for a programme, but they also had to borrow consumers from the future as well. This is a telling sign the government is having to divert more and more resources to maintain economic activity today at its juiced-up level.

Such actions will postpone the real hurt of reduced economic activity, for a while. But it results in a zombie economy; not dead, but not fully alive either. The present doldrums will remain until the excess debt is off the books. This will take decades if the government continues doing what it is doing. The end result of too much debt is always the same. A debt can only be terminated in one of three ways: the borrower repays the loan, the lender forgives the loan, or the borrower renounces the loan. Given the increasing levels of debt faced by the U.S. and other Western countries; the first and second options are unlikely in any reasonable time frame.

With trillion dollar deficits scheduled for the next decade, the end result of this credit expansion is only growing more and more spectacular for when it arrives. What people have to seriously start considering is what happens in twenty years? Children born after the credit crisis will have grown up and are then asked to pay for the excess debt of their parents and grandparents. Historically, a simpler, more expedient and popular solution has always been to grab the political leaders, execute them, and then tell the creditors that the debt died with them. The tragedy is this solution is never arrived at directly. It comes after years of increasing deprivation, social upheaval and civil war.

The solution - take the opposit approach governments are trying. Stop keeping debts alive via socializing them. Instead, force creditors to write off the bad debts even if this means writing off the companies who made them. This will produce a sharp, but short lived, economic problem for many. But the debt is swept aside quickly. The real economy will step up in a couple of years instead of a couple of decades.

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#6

Re: The New Conservatives

09/28/2009 3:18 PM

Forcing the companies to write off debt? This sounds like the Nazi's answer to life's persistent problems. And rounding up the governement leaders and shooting them?

Pilloried maybe, but shot? I'm sorry, but there is no one I would trust with this heady assignment, especially you.

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#7
In reply to #6

Re: The New Conservatives

09/28/2009 3:56 PM

It appears you are misinterpreting my comments. And, for Heaven's sake, what sort of thought process equates Nazi ideology to corporate financial obligations? Your avatar, good sir, is aptly chosen!

I was not advocating the shooting of anybody - in fact quite the opposite. What I said was we should consider what may happen in the future if economic policy enacted today prolongs the issue and places an undue burden on future citizens - those who have had no say in the matter. Ayn Rand said it best - they will simply shrug it off.

Unfortunately, shrugging off government debt has historically been a messy affair (re: Boston 1776, Paris 1779, Moscow 1918, etc., etc., etc...) I would advocate a more peaceful approach that involves having the corporations and people who emplaced bad credit be subject to the consequences of their actions - not uninvolved future persons.

As for forcing companies to write off debt: this is a standard business practice when the companies make poor lending choices. Compelling citizens to incur the debt of companies who have made poor lending choices - this is a new experiment to Western society. It is one that most likely will not end well. Keeping debt alive to avoid the consequences of bad lending practices only prolongs the issue. Prolonged economic upheavals transform into social upheavals. I would urge people to avoid a prolonged upheaval.

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#9

Re: The New Conservatives

09/29/2009 4:50 PM

I had to reread your posting to get the gist of your comments. I offer you an apology and give you a GA.

"Instead, force creditors to write off the bad debts even if this means writing off the companies who made them."

Living in an upside down world where ineptitude is rewarded and intellectual dishonesty is rampant I read the above statement as needing more government picking and chosing of losers and winners and installing czars who have no relevent qualifications. The only correct judge of an organization's value is the cold, cruel marketplace.

Add this......

"Historically, a simpler, more expedient and popular solution has always been to grab the political leaders, execute them, and then tell the creditors that the debt died with them"

and maybe you can see where it got scary. I took this as advocacy.

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#10

Re: The New Conservatives

10/10/2009 8:38 AM

There are 2 economies.

"Real" economy. Tangible items of production, but includes services where they have a link to production.

"Virtual" economy. Share market, services which have no significant link to production.

When the money tied up in the virtual economy exceeds the real economy by too much (generally about a factor of 10), a readjustment is needed. This is known as a recession. (If severe enough it becomes a depression, but these days we can't have a depression because it will always be referred to as a "recession" - just more severe than usual.)

If we interfere with this adjustment process too much, it simply puts off the adjustment and the next one becomes more severe and probably arrives earlier.

Eventually, no amount of interference will prevent it happening and a major depression occurs.

(Evidence for this being a realignment of the virtual and real economies is seen by the number of solid businesses that started during a severe recession or depression).

If major companies are propped up and not allowed to suffer the consequences of many years of mismanagement and pillaging by senior management, then we can expect more economic crashes in the future.

As far as I can see, this current crisis is not over, simply deferred.

If no significant readjustment has happened, the next one will be worse. If it comes too soon, we will be in a worse position to see it through.

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