In January 1976, a 19-year old solider died of pneumonia at Fort Dix, New
Jersey. U.S. Army Private David Lewis was just one of
many recruits afflicted by respiratory illness, but the cause of his pneumonia
wasn't the Victoria
virus, the dominant cause of human influenza since 1968. Rather, David Lewis'
death was attributed to an unknown, a virus which the U.S. Secretary of Health,
Education and Welfare (HEW) predicted would kill one million Americans in 1976.
"There is evidence", warned HEW Secretary F. David Matthews,
that "there will be a major flu epidemic this coming fall". Matthews' bold
prediction, delivered just a month after Lewis' death, reflected the darkest
fears of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in Atlanta. There, scientists had determined
that the unknown virus from Fort
Dix was the "swine flu",
an acute and highly contagious respiratory disease of swine that was thought to
be caused by the same virus behind the 1918 influenza pandemic.
According to Richard E. Neustadt and Harvey V. Fineberg,
authors of The Epidemic That Never Was:
Policy-Making and the Swine Flu, the government's concerns were four-fold.
First, David Lewis and several other soldiers from Fort Dix
hadn't been infected through contact with pigs. Rather, they were the viral
victims of human-to-human transmission. Second, because the swine flu had
confined itself to pigs since the 1920s, only Americans older than 50 years old
"would have build up specific antibodies from previous infection".
Younger Americans had some immunity to the then-dominant Victoria virus, of
course, but the swine flu was different. Third on the list of the CDC's
concerns was that the Fort
Dix virus bore different
surface proteins, or antigens. Such an "antigenic shift" would, as Neustadt and
Fineberg write, "negate any resistance" that might otherwise protect healthy
segments of the U.S.
population. Finally, the government worried that weakened immune systems would
be susceptible to bacterial pneumonia, the immediate cause of Army Private David
Lewis' death.
Underlying the CDC's concerns was the belief that "pandemics
follow antigenic shifts as night follows day" – and that these changes occur
approximately once every 10 years. As evidence, public health officials pointed
to antigenic shifts in 1946, 1957, and 1968 and the influenza pandemics that
followed.
This time, the pandemic had come early – or had it?
Editor's Note: Click here for Part 2 of this multi-part series.
Resources:
http://wordnetweb.princeton.edu/perl/webwn?s=swine%20flu
http://blogs.consumerreports.org/health/2009/04/the-swine-flu-epidemic-that-never-really-was-1976-swine-flu-outbreak.html
http://www.salon.com/env/feature/2009/04/28/1976_swine_flu/
http://www.amazon.com/epidemic-that-never-was-Policy-making/dp/0394711475
http://www.sagepub.com/upm-data/5071_Yin_Chapter_1.pdf
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