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IHS Expects Hydrogen Car Sales Boost by 2027

Posted June 21, 2016 6:26 AM by Jordan Perch

Thanks to drastically longer range and much shorter refueling times than electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are regarded as the best alternative to conventionally-powered vehicles, but they have yet to reach mass adoption, due to high production costs and lack of infrastructure.

However, although there are only a handful of hydrogen-powered models on the market at the moment, their number is bound to increase at a much faster rate over the next few years, slowly making their way into the mainstream. But, a new study now says that even though fuel cell car sales are going to see a significant boost in the next decade, they will still represent only a tiny fraction of total car sales.

70,000 Sales Annually

A recent report by IHS Automotive, the leading automotive industry market performance data firm, suggests that global sales of hydrogen fuel cell cars are expected to reach 70,000 per year by 2027, which would be a major jump compared to today's figures, but even with that large increase, they will only account for about 0.1% of all new vehicles sold.

“Recently there has been an increasing focus on battery electric vehicles and battery technology, but FCEVs could also play a key role in zero-carbon mobility,” said Ben Scott, senior analyst with IHS Automotive. “We are now in the third wave of FCEVs from OEMs and more Hydrogen Refueling Infrastructure is beginning to be rolled out,” he said. “This could be a ‘now or never’ situation for FCEVs in mass market mobility.”

Plenty of New Models Set to Be Introduced

According to the report, the number of hydrogen-powered models is expected to increase to 17, a strong jump over the current 3, over the next 11 years. At the moment, consumers can only choose from three fuel cell models: the Honda Clarity, the Hyundai ix35, and the Toyota Mirai, with some of them available for purchase, and others only available for lease.

IHS Automotive states that Japan and South Korea will continue to play a significant role in hydrogen car production, but their leading position will be taken by European car makers by 2021. The report states that stricter emission standards will make automakers based in Europe to ramp up their hydrogen vehicle production, in an effort to meet tougher regulations.

The IHS Automotive report goes on to state that the lack of refueling stations will continue to be a huge obstacle for hydrogen cars, noting the fact that they are very expensive to build and install, estimating the cost to be somewhere around $3 million.

The report concludes with a couple of arguments in favor of the viability of hydrogen cars, saying that their short refueling times and long range will make them appealing to future car buyers. “Refueling habits with an FCEV will be very similar to that of a conventional car. This will definitely help with customer acceptance of FCEVs,” Scott said. But, it also warns that if they don't achieve mass adoption within the next 20-25 years, they will never be able to become commonplace.

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#1

Re: IHS Expects Hydrogen Car Sales Boost by 2027

06/21/2016 9:23 AM

Hydrogen is perfect except for the problem of storage, both in the vehicle and at the fueling station.

http://2fwww.kexue.com.cn/upload/blog/file/2009/11/200911891122208709.pdf

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#4
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Re: IHS Expects Hydrogen Car Sales Boost by 2027

06/21/2016 11:42 PM

By the time infrastructure is in place battery technology will have overtaken the need for Hydrogen. Case in point Tesla - most manufacturers are not far behind.

Keep in mind that e Hydrogen car is an Electric car with a modest but high power battery pack that can still supply the high power needs, with a low power fuel cell "range extender". (A fuel cell alone can not supply the 100's of kW that most drivers demand nowadays.)

Battery charge/discharge cycles are so much more efficient than fuel cells I fail to see this technology as being anything other than big business trying to retain control of our transport energy.

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#5
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Re: IHS Expects Hydrogen Car Sales Boost by 2027

06/22/2016 11:17 PM

I don't agree....the electric motor whether battery driven or fuel cell driven, is basically the same....the difference is that we can supply the hydrogen needed for all vehicles, but we can't supply the GW needed to charge all those batteries at once in a timely manner....

https://www.hyundaiusa.com/tucsonfuelcell/index.aspx

Toyota Mirai

..."The system accelerates Mirai from 0 to 97 km/h (0 to 60 mph) in 9.0 seconds and delivers a passing time of 3 seconds from 40 to 64 km/h (25 to 40 mph). The Mirai refueling takes between 3 and 5 minutes, and Toyota expected a total range of 480 kilometres (300 mi) miles on a full tank.[36] "' ...and is testing a model with 500+ mile range...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Mirai

http://www.geek.com/news/hondas-clarity-fuel-cell-hydrogen-car-has-a-750km-range-1649678/

BMW lemans race car fuel cell powered...

http://gas2.org/2015/06/19/bmw-fuel-cell-race-car-for-le-mans/

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#6
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Re: IHS Expects Hydrogen Car Sales Boost by 2027

06/23/2016 2:24 AM

", but we can't supply the GW needed to charge all those batteries at once in a timely manner..."

But we can. That's where Solar excess generated during the day comes into it. Just a little thought and we could run our cars fossil and gas free. Many Telsa Superchargers are already Solar. hey have a big battery bank that gets charged during the day then the energy is transferred to cars as required. Yes they supplement with grid but as I said - a little thought...

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Re: IHS Expects Hydrogen Car Sales Boost by 2027

06/23/2016 12:00 PM

The solar energy produced is but a drop in the bucket...Even if everybody had room for all these solar panels, and could afford the price of installation....Then you still have the problems ,you can only charge at home, you have to wait hours to recharge the batteries, you can never move without facing the additional problems of moving the charging system....no it will never work on a large scale.....just a niche market...What about all the renters? Which is about half the population or more...

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#10
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Re: IHS Expects Hydrogen Car Sales Boost by 2027

06/23/2016 8:56 PM

Battery bank at home. Charge from bank. Expensive at the moment but TOTALLY insulated from the money hungry big oil/hydrogen.

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Re: IHS Expects Hydrogen Car Sales Boost by 2027

06/24/2016 4:05 PM

They don't store enough kw's and they don't interface with vehicles for rapid charging...

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Tesla-Discontinues-10kWh-Powerwall-Home-Battery

"Tesla supercharging stations charge with up to 120 kW of power, or up to 16 times as fast as public charging stations; they take about 20 minutes to charge to 50%, 40 minutes to charge to 80%, and 75 minutes to 100%."

= 1 hour and 15 minutes for a superfastcharge... as good as it gets...oh, and don't forget travel time to the station.....so let's say under 2 hours, that is if you don't have to wait in line, which you probably will....so maybe 4 hours, give or take....

http://www.autoblog.com/2015/08/19/tesla-superchargers-letter/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_station

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#13
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Re: IHS Expects Hydrogen Car Sales Boost by 2027

06/27/2016 8:32 PM

My daily commute use 6kWh. Easily replaced with Solar and a battery bank. I'm not advocating Tesla's pretty offering. What I'm saying is the solutions are there - and work - I drive it daily!

BTW My daily commute energy is equivalent to a fan heater running for 3 hours.

As for charging times. I charge overnight. The odd times I need long range I drive a fossil fuel car. But that means the vast majority of my driving is electric.

I don't adhere to electric being suitable for ALL driving at the moment but it could certainly take over the commuter driving right now with little effect on the power grid.

Charging overnight means you are using the off-peak energy that the coal fired power produce that can't easily be ramped down.

Anyway if you don't want to use any solutions of which you are in control, lets just wait for the man to role out another consumer fuel...

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Re: IHS Expects Hydrogen Car Sales Boost by 2027

06/23/2016 12:13 PM
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#2

Re: IHS Expects Hydrogen Car Sales Boost by 2027

06/21/2016 9:43 AM

Remember, hydrogen is not a fuel that can be mined out of the ground. It has to be produced using energy that has to be derived from another fuel. It's only "carbon neutral" if the producing fuel is "carbon neutral", e.g., solar, wind, hydroelectric, or nuclear.

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#3

Re: IHS Expects Hydrogen Car Sales Boost by 2027

06/21/2016 11:22 PM

"And, now, ladies and gentlemen, we are proud to present the new 2018 Hyundai Hindenburg!"

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#9
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Re: IHS Expects Hydrogen Car Sales Boost by 2027

06/23/2016 12:18 PM

Pales in comparison to a gasoline fire....

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Re: IHS Expects Hydrogen Car Sales Boost by 2027

06/27/2016 11:32 AM

Maybe a breakthrough in hydrogen production, cheaper catalysts for electrolysis...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/06/160627095937.htm

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