Last week
in Part
1, I focused on some of the technical advantages of HD DVD over Blu-ray. This
is not saying that Blu-ray doesn't have a few benefits as well.
Is Bigger Better?
Blu-ray
supporters have long claimed it's superiority due to 50GB discs, while HD DVD
disc capacity at 30GB. HD DVD movies have consistently shown that 30GB is
plenty for a 1080p movie with HD audio. HD DVD has been testing a 51GB disc
that has been proved to work on all existing players, so the capacity claim
would have fallen by the wayside anyway; now those 51GB discs will never see
the light of day.
Some people
might say the 50GB is really needed for writable PC drives. Obviously when
storing data for backup or transport, more is always better. The only thing is
with the exponential growth of hard disk sizes, flash memory, and other backup
solutions, optical media is no longer the most efficient way to backup your
data. Couple that with the high price of blank BD-R discs, and it's pretty much
not worth it. (Currently the cheapest prices on Amazon are $11.41 for a 25GB
disc and $32.28 for a 50GB disc.) I don't even want to speculate on how often
you might get a write error on the 50GB disc and have a $30 beer coaster. Check
back in a couple years and maybe media prices will come down to realistic
levels.
Blu-Ray Offers (or Needs) Protection
Another
benefit that is touted of Blu-ray discs is its scratch-protection coating. What
many people don't realize is that for Blu-ray discs the scratch protection
isn't a bonus, it's a necessity. The data on a BD is stored 8% deep from the
surface, where as the data is stored 50% deep on regular DVDs. Because the data
on the BD is stored so close to the surface, it requires that extra layer of
scratch protection for the discs to be usable.
Blu-ray Wins, Consumers Lose
In the
months leading up to Christmas, sales of discs in both formats seemed to be
doing well; HD DVD was closing the gap due to more affordable hardware. Even
with HD DVD growing at a faster rate during the 2nd half of 2007,
Warner decided to drop the HD DVD format and focus on Blu-ray. Rumors widely
circulated around the internet that Sony had paid Warner Bros. $400 million
(USD) to support only the Blu-ray format. This is something that happens on a
regular basis in the industry, with the "payoff" money going down as shared
advertising costs. It is also widely speculated that Paramount received $150 million in 2007 to
drop Blu-ray. While many people deny those payoffs, that's how the industry
works and the street goes both ways. All the "early adopters" who were spending
their hard-earned money to try to support their format didn't end up meaning
very much, because in the end the consumers didn't really have a say in the
outcome of the format war.
Now that
the war is over, consumers have already started to see the negative effects, as
retailers such as Best Buy are raising player prices as much as $100. You will
also be hard-pressed to find any retailers offering the Buy-One Get-One Free
sales, which were very popular during the war for bragging rights on how many
discs were sold.
After the
Warner news, the writing was on the wall and the end was inevitable for HD DVD.
The good thing is that your players will still work and you should see some
very good liquidation sales on new and used discs and players. (The HD DVD
add-on for the Xbox 360 has just been reduced to $49.99 but should sell out
quickly at that price) Hopefully these clearance sales can hold you over until
Blu-ray players and disc prices come down to a more reasonable level.
HD Downloads are coming.
I've heard
all the naysayer's remarks about how internet connections aren't fast enough
and it takes up too much disc space, but the internet is here and it isn't
going anywhere. I can download a 720p movie in about 2 days, which is quicker
than I would get the movie using Amazon's free shipping. A 1080p movie might
take twice as long, but I'm still waiting for a 1080p media extender anyway. In
regards to the Apple TV update, I usually have so many movies waiting to be
watched that I don't mind if it takes a few days to download.
Many new
technologies are fighting for this new frontier that includes HD Downloads,
VOD, and streaming movies; each of these is gaining popularity much quicker
than disc-based media. iTunes movies outsold Blu-ray and HD DVD movies in 2007.
Granted, the iTunes movies were not in HD. Apple just started offering HD movie
rentals in 2008, and I'm sure HD movies for purchase will be coming soon
enough.
These new services
are being offered by cable providers, Apple TV, Xbox Live Marketplace, even
Netflix offers online movie watching. The movie industry will be following in
the footsteps of the music industry shift away from disc based sales, which
have been dropping every year for the past 8 years due to cost and convenience
to consumers. I'm not saying optical media will be eliminated completely, but
Blu-ray discs will never reach the popularity of DVDs which in 2007 had its
first decrease in sales since inception. The bottom line is the average
consumer doesn't want to pay $25-30 for a Blu-ray disc when they can get a DVD
for $9.99.
I want to thank Kate for letting me
submit this controversy to her blog. I know you have an opinion about the way
the format war ended and what the future may hold, so let's hear it in the
comments below!
Resources:
Say hello to CH-DVD and a 51GB HD DVD
Blu-Ray Scratch Repair FAQ
iTunes Movies Outsell HD-DVD and Blu-Ray Disc
DVD feels first sting of slipping sales
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