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HOIP Solar Cells

09/23/2016 9:26 AM

Hybrid Organic-Inorganic Perovskite solar cells efficiency breakthrough, opens up a series of new engineering possibilities, exclaims Professor Zhu.

https://www.theengineer.co.uk/us-team-claims-solar-cell-efficiency-breakthrough/?cmpid=tenews_2657567

Now with efficiency already at 22% (further advances pending will push this well past values achievable with silicon cells), It will not be much longer before this will become a serious competitor in large-scale (and small-scale) generating.

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#1

Re: HOIP Solar Cells

09/23/2016 10:23 AM
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#2
In reply to #1

Re: HOIP Solar Cells

09/23/2016 11:48 AM

That is a really awesome time line!

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#3

Re: HOIP Solar Cells

09/23/2016 12:21 PM

So only another 50 -100 years before they actually hit the mass market?

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#4
In reply to #3

Re: HOIP Solar Cells

09/23/2016 2:04 PM

One of the weaknesses of these materials may be durability under certain conditions.

I think they don't perform well in tropical climates...too many daiquiris, or something like that. Tire smoke will also affect them.

Even with these major drawbacks, we could be seeing less expensive solar hit the market within the next two years, IMHO, very humble opinion.

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#5
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Re: HOIP Solar Cells

09/23/2016 4:21 PM

I've been hearing cheap efficient solar will hit the market soon since I was in high school in the early 1990's right along with flying cars for everyone being right around the corner too.

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#6
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Re: HOIP Solar Cells

09/23/2016 4:32 PM

Me too, so I guess it is still just out of reach, like fusion.

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#8
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Re: HOIP Solar Cells

09/24/2016 9:27 PM

You're kidding right?

Below is a graph displaying the reducing prices for PVs since the late 70's. That's a reduction of better than 100 times, and allowing for inflation over that period, it's even better than that.

Chinese manufacturing has been the big driver in getting these prices so low.

It's now to a point where PV self generated electricity is cheaper than grid power, we're now just waiting for the cost of storage to catch up - or down.

As for efficiency improvements, the below graph says it all.

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#9
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Re: HOIP Solar Cells

09/25/2016 4:45 PM

As of 2016, it's approximately $3.00 per watt, installed. A 10kw system is around $30K installed....still not cheap...and well beyond the average persons ability to purchase....and not a good investment when you consider the monthly cost of grid to be ~$150....that's 200 months to break even, not considering maintenance costs and assuming total energy needs being met by the pv system....Probably can assume a 30 year break even time frame...about the time you need to replace everything....They need to hit $.50 per watt installed for most people to consider it.....

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#10
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Re: HOIP Solar Cells

09/25/2016 6:01 PM

A bit different here in Australia.

The federal government subsidised rooftop solars for many homes and then paid a very reasonable feed-in tariff.

My 2.4kW system cost me a bit less than AUD2500 (that's about USD1900) fully installed and have been paying me a feed in rate of 60 cents per kWh for the last five years. At our then grid charges of about 20 cents per kWH (it's gone up by roughly 40% since), the entire cost was recouped in less than 2 years.

Sadly the payment ends this December when they will only pay us 6 cents per kWh, but I will then be altering my metering so that I use what I can before it goes out to the grid.

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#15
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Re: HOIP Solar Cells

09/27/2016 8:28 AM

So what was the fair market value of your system and the price per KWH you would get paid for oco gen without the government subsidy?

Just because a welfare case (subsidized) homeowner can get heating full for 5 cents on the dollar per gallon of what the rest of us pay does not make the price of heating fuel 5 cents per gallon everywhere for everyone.

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#11
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Re: HOIP Solar Cells

09/25/2016 10:04 PM

"...Chinese manufacturing has been the big driver..." Not really, it's the subsidies being provided by the Chinese government to the manufacturers that are "...getting these prices so low...", aka known as "dumping".

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#13
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Re: HOIP Solar Cells

09/26/2016 8:41 AM

Let us not forget to mention the basic method used by the Chinese to produce silicon is very heavy in carbon dioxide emissions, and other air emissions. It does work, and it does produce large tonnage of silicon. I think the silicon is then remelted, sent to something like zone refining to help further remove unwanted impurities, then it is sent through the usual semiconductor treatments.

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#12
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Re: HOIP Solar Cells

09/26/2016 1:01 AM

Regardless of cell composition, to even be in the game to produce enough power, it takes a lot of cells to put together to make a decent amount of energy. If the array is stationary, you lose before you even start. If the array tracks the sun, it has its own set of problems, none of which is cheap.

I work around photovoltaic tracking systems that are large scale. They are a pure cost center that rarely scratch the surface of any ROI scenario, predicated on acceptable return. If you purchase a unit for home use, you will never realize any numbers in the positive column. You can't buy a battery large enough to store the amount of energy you would have to "store" for later use that costs less than the price of the home you put the unit on, at least on home units that are stationary, which is a joke. The current yield is around 17% efficiency. A 5% gain really doesn't mean much on your bottom line. This applies to stationary units. Trackers do much better. But, trackers are exponentially more expensive to buy, and most certainly requires a fair amount of maintenance to survive long enough to pay for itself.

I know everybody is excited about 22%. That is a good thing . But it is a drop in the bucket compared to where it has to be to be able to afford a system.

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#14
In reply to #12

Re: HOIP Solar Cells

09/26/2016 8:54 AM

What I don't get is that no one here seems to realize that HOIP cells are much easier fabrication, and far lower on energy requirements from the raw materials. I believe the cost will drop like a rock as soon as serious production starts.

To compare:

(1) Installation costs of a medium size gas turbine plant is in the range of $2-$3 /watt

(2) Solar installation costs about the same at this point in time.

(3) Energy storage is still the largest limiting factor of implementation.

(4) Solar energy profiles more closely match the demand curves in peak generating months of summer (for most localities in the U.S.A.), However, the energy storage dilemma for any solar power scheme has only recently been met with the largest molten salt storage units in places like Nevada, or Southern California.

(5) CSP is possible in a "home" setting, but not easily implemented unless the setting has a lot of extra space for that. CSP can provide a temperature coming off the PV that might be consistent with utilization of that heat source in driving an adsorption refrigeration system on into the late evening-early morning hours, but this comes at a high cost, and probably with a large inventory of hazardous ammonia.

(6) The alternative to storage of electrical energy is the storage of cold media (underground) with a system that is over-scaled to the extent that one with 10 good hours of PV output could provide the 24 hour cooling demand, plus whatever lighting, and other electrical demand of the household.

(7) PV systems having the bulk of their output during peak demand should be paid accordingly to the spot price of electricity at the time, not a "standard" price, which essentially rapes the producer, and when combined with a ridiculous fee structure by the local utility, the producer will hardly break even, much less reap any profit.

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#16
In reply to #14

Re: HOIP Solar Cells

09/27/2016 10:21 AM

The "rape" is actually a two-way street. What most proponents of any form of unconventional generation fail to recognize is that it costs money to move all those Coulombs of electrons from the point of generation to the point of consumption, and the owner of the grid wants to be compensated for the extra copper he has to put in to do so. He also wants to be compensated for overbuilding his entire system so that he can provide backup power when the cloud cover persists long enough for the local battery storage to deplete (maybe not a problem in AZ though!), and wind power is much more spurious.

I studied these scenarios before deregulation reared its ugly head, and although the costs of non-utility generation has dropped by orders of magnitude, the problem of sharing the costs of providing the infrastructure to "wheel" the power still is subject to intense debate.

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#17
In reply to #16

Re: HOIP Solar Cells

09/27/2016 11:35 AM

Yes, it is a conundrum. The power transformers generally are made to move power out from a central hub (generating station) to the local customers, not the other way around.

I suspect that distributed generation will reveal its huge Achilles heel: lack of any ability to provide VARS, or shift the power factor.

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#7

Re: HOIP Solar Cells

09/24/2016 9:14 AM

Hope springs eternal, but heat is a real bitch.

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