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# Probabilities of Road and Sea Accidents?

04/03/2017 11:07 AM

Hi guys, do you have ideas where to get the statistics on this?

How frequent does road accident happens than travelling on sea?

Is it safer to travel land or sea?

Hope you can help me quantify things. Thank you.

I appreciate references.

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Guru

Join Date: Dec 2016
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#1

### Re: Probabilities of road and sea accidents?

04/03/2017 11:14 AM

Yes.

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#3

### Re: Probabilities of road and sea accidents?

04/03/2017 11:33 AM

A former president had one of these and enjoyed terrifying visitors by driving towards and into a lake and claiming the brakes had failed.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/quora/2017/04/03/why_do_people_in_mainland_china_believe_only_a_few_died_in_tiananmen_square.html

In this photo from April 1965, Lyndon Johnson took two visitors to his Stonewall, Texas, ranch on a ride in his Amphicar. A West German firm built 3,770 of these land-to-water vehicles between 1960 and 1968, and the president loved his lagoon-blue model.

According to one of LBJ’s aides, Joseph A. Califano Jr., the president liked to play a trick on visitors. Califano first encountered the Amphicar when he visited the ranch and LBJ offered him a ride. “We reached a steep incline at the edge of the lake and the car started rolling rapidly toward the water,” Califano recalled. “The president shouted, ‘The brakes don’t work! The brakes won’t hold! We’re going in! We’re going under! ’”

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#9

### Re: Probabilities of road and sea accidents?

04/03/2017 2:26 PM

Johnson apparently had a really great sense of humour.

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#2

### Re: Probabilities of Road and Sea Accidents?

04/03/2017 11:23 AM

Found this :

From here.

And this.

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#4

### Re: Probabilities of Road and Sea Accidents?

04/03/2017 1:00 PM

Modes of public transportation....deaths per billion miles traveled....

Motorcycles

125 deaths per billion miles – Motorcycles account for 1% of road traffic but account for 20% of road-fatalities! But, that equals 1 in every 800,000 miles traveled.

Walking

41 deaths per billion miles – 453 people died last year while footing it to wherever they were going. This blows my mind. Probably got hit by one of the ‘safer’ modes of transportation…

Bicycles

35 deaths per billion miles – 122 people lost their lives last year while biking and we’re not talking about the high-flying bmx x-games kinda stunts either… Turns out almost all of these fatalities came when our #4 mode of travel collided with them.

Ferries

20 deaths per billion miles – Crazy, this is actually the least safe mode of public transportation believe it or not, never even would’ve thought to include it in a survey much less ask about how safe this one is but there you have it.

The Space Shuttle

7 deaths per billion miles – We can all remember fatal shuttle disasters and where we were and what we were doing when they happened because they are so rare, but only 18 out of the 530 people that have even been on one have died. This one would seem to be the most dangerous of them all, but only rolls in right in the middle of the field at #5.

Cars

4 deaths per billion miles. Around 5 people a day die in cars and some 883 people met their maker last year while driving or being driven in the most dangerous form of transportation, but it still rolls in at the 4th safest (I know, weird.) given the improvements to car design and other safety measures.

Airplanes

0.5 deaths per billion miles – There were 475 deaths last year in only 23 plane crashes worldwide, the least deaths since 1945!! You have a 1-in-45 million chance of dying on an airplane. You’re more likely to get attacked by a shark, struck by lightning, become a billionaire or become President of this great nation than you are to become an airplane fatality. Not a single person has died in an airplane crash in the U.S. in the last four years, that’s 40 million flights without incident. However, for all of us light aircraft people, the odds of us becoming a statistic are far greater than those of you that travel on commercial flights.

Buses

0.5 deaths per billion miles – And that’s WITHOUT a bomb on board and Keanu Reeves and Sandra Bullock driving you to eventual safety!

Trains

0.2 deaths per billion miles – This is the safest mode of transportation period. Around one rail passenger every other year finds themselves on the wrong end of the tracks believe it or not. Still blows my mind that this is safer than walking much less taking a ride in the Space Shuttle! Kinda makes sense when you consider a pedestrian going up against any of the modes of transportation mono-e-mono. We don’t stand a chance.

https://journalistsresource.org/studies/environment/transportation/comparing-fatality-risks-united-states-transportation-across-modes-time

..."In an average year between 2000 and 2009, 43,239 people died in transportation incidents. This is an annual risk of 1 in 6800 based on the number of U.S. residents (of course, some U.S. residents die in transportation incidents elsewhere in the world, and some foreign residents die in incidents within the United States). Transportation risks accounted for about 1.78% of the 2.43 million annual deaths from all causes in the United States.

http://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~ipsavage/436.pdf

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#6

### Re: Probabilities of Road and Sea Accidents?

04/03/2017 1:13 PM

A little exerpt from "The danger of lying in bed" by Mark Twain reminded to me by your post:

The man in the ticket office said: "Have an accident insurance ticket, also?"

"No," I said, after studying the matter over a little. "No, I believe not; I am going to be travelling by rail all day to-day. However, to-morrow I don't travel. Give me one for to-morrow."

The man looked puzzled. He said:

"But it is for accident insurance, and if you are going to travel by rail -- "

"If I am going to travel by rail, I shan't need it. Lying at home in bed is the thing I am afraid of."

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#7

### Re: Probabilities of Road and Sea Accidents?

04/03/2017 2:05 PM

"...and some 883 people met their maker last year while driving..."

Can you clarify where you got your data (which country or is it for the entire world)?

I haven't seen numbers for 2016 yet, but for 2015 in the US car related fatalities were over 35,000, 883 seems a bit low.

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#10

### Re: Probabilities of Road and Sea Accidents?

04/03/2017 4:40 PM
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#12

### Re: Probabilities of Road and Sea Accidents?

04/03/2017 9:19 PM

The Space Shuttle fatality stats also seem off.

I count two fatal accidents causing 14 total deaths. The Space Shuttle program totalled 20,952 orbits for a little over 537 million miles. That makes 26 deaths per billion miles.

Alternately if you considered it transportation instead of a mission requiring a certain number of personnel to complete, an evaluation of astronaut miles aboard Space Shuttle points to a figure around 4 per billion miles, assuming an average crew complement of 6 to 7.

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#5

### Re: Probabilities of Road and Sea Accidents?

04/03/2017 1:07 PM

HI, I may be completely wrong, but these questions sound a bit weird to me:

What is the involved population??? Are they commuting from home to work or guys towing a trailer during their holidays? what are they travelling in: cars, bicycles, cartings or buses?

About the sea travellers: are they turists on a cruise to Bahamas, guys sitting in their cars on a ferry or people having fun on a sailing boat?

Is it safer to travel land or sea? Well, it depends where: near Mosul it can get a bit dangerous, as well as the Indian Ocean near Somalia... but on the other hand, the countryside near Frankfurt, and the Caribbean next to the Keys in Florida seem quite safe to me.

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#8

### Re: Probabilities of Road and Sea Accidents?

04/03/2017 2:08 PM

look in this tree Marine incident report

country by country, major flags, like Panama come to mind?

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#11

### Re: Probabilities of Road and Sea Accidents?

04/03/2017 7:28 PM

Thank you all, I appreciate it.

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#13

### Re: Probabilities of Road and Sea Accidents?

04/04/2017 4:16 AM

Try contacting Llyods of London for shipping data.

https://www.lloyds.com/

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#14

### Re: Probabilities of Road and Sea Accidents?

04/05/2017 7:37 AM

In terms of deaths per person-mile travelled, air travel and London Underground come out well, as do most rail activities. At the bottom of the list is the motorcycle.

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#15

### Re: Probabilities of Road and Sea Accidents?

04/05/2017 8:02 AM

So, they are now shooting airplanes up there and down under, Shirley?

Oh, I have not noticed that.

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#16

### Re: Probabilities of Road and Sea Accidents?

04/05/2017 11:43 AM

For deaths or just severe injury per personal mile traveled, there are others that likely fare worse han motorcycles.

Sky diving and scuba diving would fare very poorly, especially when only measuring net horizontal travel.

Bull riding probably doesn't fare very well. I imagine running from bulls isn't too much better.

I wonder how things like parasailing fare?

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#17

### Re: Probabilities of Road and Sea Accidents?

04/05/2017 10:13 PM

How frequent does road accident happens when traveling on sea.

As a former big rig driver I was often asked how we made deliveries to Hawaii,,I merely responded by saying that we drove around and around on the ship.

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