Interesting topic. However, the aircraft manufactures and the airlines do not feel that the end is neigh. As long as the orders for new aircraft keep coming, then you can be pretty assured that those aircraft will be flying in 20 to 30 years.

Oil prices will fluctuate based upon demand. When the price exceeds what people are willing to pay for it, they cut back. This creates a lower demand, which forces prices down until some form of stability is reached. Yes, prices do fluctuate as the market reacts to perceived near-term predictions. Even now the prices are dropping and it appears that speculation on demand was wrong and is driving the price down.

Another thought to consider. In the US the FAA takes its job very seriously. Fuel substitutes and the mechanisms to store and use them need to go through such stringent regulations that it becomes very, very expensive to drive changes into the system. Because of the huge cost for certification, aircraft fuel, in its present form, will be available for a long time to come. Someone will find a way to dig it up and refine it to keep the fleets flying.

No doubt the cost will go up, but I would bet that the increase will not force a collapse in the airline industry or system. I would expect to see some carriers go under if the demand is not there to support the current number of seats. Oh, don't forget commercial shippers. A lot of air traffic is sending packages to and from place to place and that is BIG business.

I am in the aviation industry and while I hear grumbling about fuel prices, we are doing record business with no end in sight.

Long term I expect that we will reduce our national oil consumption, but aviation will be one of the last industries to curb that use. On the flip side I do see a market for improving economy of flight costs and that is where the low hanging fruit is.

Hi Achilles,

How did you figure out that oil would run out in 30-40 years?

There is billions of barrels of oil all over the world, the only problem at this moment in time is that they have not figured a way of getting at it......so far!

We shall have to wait and see what happens in the future, so don't count your chekens until they have hatched.

Spencer.

Top 10 known Oil Reserves (billion barrels)

• Saudi Arabia - 260
• Canada - 179
• Iran - 136
• Iraq - 115
• Kuwait - 99
• United Arab Emirates - 97
• Venezuela - 80
• Russia - 60
• Libya - 41.5
• Nigeria - 36.2

The total reserves of the top ten = 1.1 trillion barrels. I feel this is pretty representative of the worlds oil reserves, since the oil reserve at rank 12 is 12 b barrels and quickly tapers off.

Current world consumption is 84 mil barrels a day.

84 mil * 365 = 30.660 billion barrels a year. (Note that this isnt taking into account rising consumption...so my estimate could be too optimistic)

1.1 trillion barrels / 30.66 bb / year = 35.6 years.

Before I am caught saying: "we will run out in 30-40 years" I want to clarify that we probably wont run out, but we wont be using it like we are now and its stupid to think we will be. Production is supposedly peaking (at least some major economic dudes say so) and consumption is still rising. Basic economics means that prices will rise and as prices rise, fewer and fewer people will be able to use it in their cars and prices for everything from farming goods to plastic bottles will rise.

As a final note, ive counted my chickens and put my ducks in a row. I am fine with the outcome. If people dont accept that oil will run out, that you wont be able to burn it in your cars without burning a significant hole in your pants, then thats their problem. Meanwhile, I plan on making a fortune off of green homes, green tech and real innovation. None of this making oil fueled motors more efficient crap. All the time placed in that technology is wasted, since the fuel we run it on, will be priced out of the market place. (I used wasted loosely, since their isnt much of an alternative yet).

References

World reserve data taken from:

Oil & Gas Journal, January, 2007 (you can find more using google...)

World Daily Oil Consumption:

https://www.worldwatch.org/node/5666

www.factbites.com/search.php?kp=daily+oil+consumption