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The Real Truth About Global Warming

Posted July 25, 2012 8:00 AM by larhere

Skeptics abound despite a near consensus on the reality of global warming. But if the scientists aren't convincing enough just follow the money!

US importers (the money) have a pretty good idea of whether warming is occurring. U.S. imports of window AC units hit a 3-year high in March 2012 at $255 million, or 1.8 million units.

Air conditioners aren't the only imports rising with the summer heat. Even the "poor man's" air-conditioner, the indoor fan, hit a 3-year high in 2012, with $163 million imported in April.

Read more at Panjiva

Editor's Note: CR4 would like to thank Larry Butz, President and CEO of GEA Consulting, for contributing this blog entry.

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#1

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 8:23 AM

Really? I would think that would be more a measure of prosperity....

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#2

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 8:27 AM

Air conditioners and global warming. Now, there's a positive feedback loop if ever there were one.

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#3

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 8:44 AM

This is just a 'old school' segment of analysing markets for investments. .

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#4

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 11:19 AM

With a population increase of about 2.5 million a year. Were those statistic adjusted to take that into consideration.

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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 11:48 AM

How many of those new air conditioner units were bought just to replace older less efficient units or other new units that lasted 1 or 2 summers before they crapped out due to poor design and junk materials?

About 5 years ago I bought a high efficiency 8000 BTU window unit to replace my 20+ year old low efficiency 8000 BTU unit I have been using forever. I spent $175 saved about $5 a year on electricity for two summers and was marginally comfortable, I would have rated it as a 5000 BTU unit myself, then it crapped out (all the plastic parts inside and out including the fans sun rotted to pieces) and I have had the old one back in service ever since.

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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 11:55 AM

Now let's get a bit serious on this one. We have a data stream of systematic temperature measurements for the last what? One hundred years? Is there somebody (that's bad) enough that wants to convince me that by hearing a couple of song notes on a noisy radio station, by using simulation modeling mostly from our experience of DJ's music preferences (from those notes again and from our arbitary, possibly irrelevant, forced assosiations), you can predict what notes will be played on that station ten years from now? It must be a few thousand times less info than needed to make ANY serious characterization on an unknown "signal", even if you filter-out 100% correctly the very short period (what a coincidence, LOL), known up to now, temperature cycles. (I wonder aren't there any longer period cycles present or it's just Nyquist blinding? And we are certain that this is not a cycle, but a line, right?). Well, just haven't 100% figured out what's really behind all that BS, and who is expecting to benefit from it, because I'm NOT convinced it's innocent stupidity, well, at least from some, and please anyone wanting to talk about it, leave the "generally recognized as truth" argument, out. (LOL) S.M.

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#7

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 12:20 PM

I am glad we have all enjoyed the "tongue in cheek" humor in this post. It does show this is still a hot issue and will continue to grow in importance as we seek "conclusive" proof the global warming is, or isn't, real. Personally, I do not believe there is proof that mankind is contributing significantly to global warming. However I believe the probability is high that we are and we should be doing something about it.

Thanks for all your comments. I respect each and every opinion expressed here and encourage you to continue to provide this important feedback.

Larry Butz

Read recent issues of the Environmental Update newsletter I publish periodically

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#8

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 1:54 PM

This raises the question of why they are only using import air conditioners as a support for the argument without considering all air conditioner sales. Is the market naturally shifting more toward imports anyway?

The title of the article, "Air conditioner imports rise with summer temperatures" seems a bit strange. I would have intrinsically thought that people would buy more A/C units in the summer just as people buy coats and gloves in the winter.

Lastly, The recent heat wave in the central US is a likely cause for the spike in sales, but it would be more useful to assign global warming to the heat wave (if that could effectively have been done) rather than use data that could have multiple other assignable causes that drive an increase of sales.

It is also important to see that the "study" only states it is a 3-year high, which implies there have been spikes that exceed the current one in the past. The sample period is too small an too affected by other causative agents to draw a meaningful conclusion.

I hardly consider this as the real truth, just incomplete and perhaps useless information and a bit humorous (as I assume it was written).

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#9

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 1:58 PM

If people really cared about 'global warming' they'd leave Vermont!:

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/06/09/save-the-planet-get-out-of-vermont/

Over the course of a year, homes that primarily use air conditioning consume less energy than homes that primarily use heating.

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#10
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 3:20 PM

Sigh

The tongue in cheek humor is appreciated but denial is not a long river in Africa. It is not a theoretical extrapolation that humanity burning of fossil fuel is responsible for the rise in CO2 levels on this planet. It is a measurement that has been repeated many times. This is known as the Seuss effect, for the Austrian chemist who first measured this decrease in C14 until we nuked the air with atmospheric nuclear tests.

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#11
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 4:22 PM

Not to stir up a whole hornet's nest, but your point arguably supports that man has added additional carbon to the atmosphere.

However, correlation is not causation as far as the end effect of that extra carbon, just to be clear.

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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 4:54 PM

You're absolutely correct. This one pair of scientific reports only shows that humanity is responsible for the recent excess of carbon dioxide to exist in the atmosphere. However, there are many here who won't even acknowledge that we have or are even capable of globally changing this facet of our planet.

Just look at your reply. You know fully well that statistics can only reveal correlation. Statistics can never prove causation, yet proof of causation is obviously the only thing that can persuade you.

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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 6:11 PM

I guess my problem is that I do not find enough statistical evidence to sway me at this point of the debate.

So, I remain a skeptic. At some point the statistical evidence will become large enough that I and others will say, "Yes, this or that is the most likely probability." I just have not arrived at that point.

Part of it is that the climate change debate has become a lot like some telemarketer or solicitor repeatedly showing up at your door with a sales pitch. It's not really science anymore, just another political debate and you just can't wait to close that front door and throw all those pamphlets into the trash.

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#14
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 6:41 PM

If the Larsen ice shelf in Antarctica disappeared would that statistic imply to you that the Earth is warming?

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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 6:44 PM

For the sake of the argument, let's say, yes.

Does that imply why the warming is take place? Absolutely not.

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#16
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 6:55 PM

See, there you go again. You immediately jump to the conclusion you prefer at every datum that I offer. You are not being scientific or open minded. Everyone has their irrational fears. You cannot rationalize an irrational fear.

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#17
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 7:06 PM

Hi Larry (please excuse my informality),

"Personally, I do not believe there is proof that mankind is contributing significantly to global warming. However I believe the probability is high that we are and we should be doing something about it."

You've go me a bit lost on that one. Is it not time when must nail our colours to the flag (Brit idiom). Proof may never come to be, but as with many courts we might be able to say 'beyond reasonable doubt' (and on that basis, action taken).

Nice intro blog - I hope you will add further. Rather late here, so I'll have to read the newsletter later.

Kris.

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#18
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 7:12 PM

Make it simple. What is your claim here?

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#19
In reply to #8

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 7:13 PM

This article refers to window ac which are made mostly in China, ~95% of global production. The remaining 5% come from Asian countries such as Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia and VietNam.

I agree that the title of the referenced article is misleading. It refers to the seasonal cycle which naturally peaks in summer. The point the author was actually making is this is the highest peak in the last three years...which is not particularly significant but does captivate interest in a topic that has high emotional appeal.

I do wholeheartedly agree with another post made referencing the politicization of the global warming issue. This is unfortunate. It is a tough enough issue already without throwing it into the meatgrinder of politics. Any ideas on how we could de-politicize this issue and put it back into the arena of a fair debate between the scientists and engineers who can argue the facts for all of us to see and comment on?

OK, I agree. I'm getting a little starry eyed at the moment, but if you don't reach for the stars you won't get past the treetops.

Larry

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#20
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 7:26 PM

Thank you for the (lack of) reply. Google 'Oscar Wilde' next time you reply and quote stars. I have just unscubscribed from this one.

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#21
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 8:22 PM

Hey Kris,

Yes, I personally believe that proof is "beyond reasonable doubt" and action needs to be taken. Even in a court of law (GB or US?) would the truth emerge?

Larry

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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 8:27 PM

Thanks for getting back to me, Larry . Very late here, so I need time to digest and consider. Good to have you onboard.

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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 10:25 PM

My my my. I'm sorry that my universe precluded me from responding in a timely fashion to this thread. This is because my point with you, AH, parallels exactly Larry's point in one of his earlier replies.

My claim here is that politics is clouding our discussion to the point that sound, reasoned pro versus con debate cannot be made because you presume a conclusion before the presentation, let alone the examination of any evidence. In a word you are biased beyond reason.

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#24
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 10:33 PM

Absolutely. A self-proclaiming prophesy!

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#25
In reply to #6

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 10:45 PM

Sounds like you've had all the real honest discussions on AGW you intend to have. Enjoy your mirror.

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#26

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 11:19 PM

As an atheist, I respect evidence. The evidence I see is that humans have added so much carbon dioxide to the air that it is raising global temperatures to a level that will seriously and negatively affect humanity, and the rest of the ecology. The politicization is the fossil fuel industry buying out legislators, our media and our top psychologists to save their profits. The economics is that world standard of living is going to drop a lot because of drought and heat stress on agriculture, flooding and fires, and extreme weather events. We won't respond in time because our rational responses are blocked by our culture of competitive greed over cooperation with other humans. We're all in the same sinking lifeboat Earth, but we think only the other end is sinking.

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#27

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 11:26 PM

Technology needs to be dumped altogether.. for the good of the planet! And volcanoes need to be put in jail with the big meteors.. And we need to have the sun sign a contract to burn longer and direct it's solar flares elsewhere under penalty of law.. and and and.. what if? -good grief (Charles Brown)

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#28
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/25/2012 11:36 PM

Damn! Shut down Canada just when we are about to benefit from global warming. That ain't fair. It is hard to argue against global warming if in the end we get warmer and Canada is a net winner. I just planted my banana trees. Now if you want to push for an ice age, the USA will have to look out for the illegals from the Great White North.

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#29
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Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 12:16 AM

Excess of CO2? Are you sure? Because historically, the last geologic era that saw co2 levels this LOW was about 300 million years ago. Co2 levels fluctuate on this planet, at least as high as 2400 ppm (with no observed ill effects) and as low as 180 ppm. of interest, green plants shut down at 150 ppm and below. So we can within 30 ppm of utter devastation. The MEAN co2 level for planet earth appears to be about 1500 ppm. Coincidentally, that's about the optimum level for green plants. The FIRST question that ought to be asked is, "is a warmer earth bad?" Historically, warmer earth supports more life (think dinosaur era); a colder earth less life (ice age, anyone?). The planet has been in an ice age for half a million years. We are presently in a warm period called an interglacial. The interglacial periods last about 10,000 to 12,000 years. We are coming to the end of an interglacial. It is NORMAL to have warming at the end of an interglacial. The interglacials are preceded by and followed by approximately 90,000 years of prolific glaciation.

CO2 is irrelevant. Even global warming alarmists don't deny that temperatures rise FIRST, then co2 levels increase. Then temperatures decline while co2 levels remain elevated and then co2 levels also decline, albeit more slowly than the temperature. There is a 100-year to 1000-year time lag between the temperature increase and the resultant release of co2 from the ocean depths into the atmosphere. These facts clearly demonstrate that co2 is reactionary and not causative. co2 IS a greenhouse gas, but an extremely minor player. Water vapor is THEE primary greenhouse gas and variations in water vapor swamp whatever contribution co2 is making (which isn't much, given it's extremely miniscule proportion of the atmosphere at less than 400 parts per MILLION). Another fact to consider is the effect of co2 is logarithmic and by 280 ppm, further increases in co2 are simply inconsequential. Anthropogenic global warming is a politically motivated hoax, perpetrated by the IPCC (a political body, not scientific) a part of the UN. Public acceptance of this hoax is necessary to further THEIR agenda of a carbon tax which is simply wealth redistribution from developed nations to undeveloped nations with the crooks at the UN acting as middleman and taking a huge cut. The IPCC and various govt's, particularly the US govt, have thrown billions of dollars at any "scientist" or publication that will support this pseudoscience. Hansen at GISS (NASA is subservient to the Vice President - remember Al Gore?), Mann, and Jones have all been caught falsifying and manipulating data and none of their predictions made with their climate models ever worked. For some real insight without all the doublespeak, try "CO2: The Greatest Scientific Scandal of Our Time" by Zbigniew Jaworowski, M.D., Ph.D., D.Sc., March 2007, and take a look at the work of Ernst Georg Beck who researched real time (not proxy data, real measurements) co2 measurements going back 200 years. His research contradicts the contentions of the AGW alarmists by demonstrating conclusively that co2 has varied a good deal in the last 200 years, as high as 330 ppm in the 1800s.

A major hedge fund hired a scientist to advise them with regards to trading in carbon credits. He, like most people, didn't have much reason to disbelieve all the hype about anthropogenic global warming until he started to research it. He ended up writing a 500-page report on this hoax. He talked firsthand with the scientists pushing this gobbledy-gook as well as the politicos at the UN. In his own words, he saved the hedge fund from making a monumental mistake.

Further, you might just look into the matter of Danes farming Greenland for about 300 years, starting in the 900s. It was called the Medieval warm period. It was warmer then than it is now. It was warming during Roman times than it is now. In fact, warmer temperatures coincide with advancement of civilization, more prosperity, less disease, less war. Colder climes (the little ice age that began in 1250,for example) associated with disease (black plague) poverty, starvation, warfare, and regression of civilization (dark ages). The Little Ice restored Greenland's glaciers and the Danish colonies died out. Many of them were stubborn and refused to leave or adapt. The colony literally died out.

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#30
In reply to #26

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 12:32 AM

I like evidence. Put yours on the table. I want to see it.

Anybody remember Milankovich cycles? The global warming alarmists first tried to ignore and dismiss Milankovich, et al, and then resorted to acknowledging same and attempted to graft their AGW religion onto the foundation of Milankovich and company.

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#31

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 12:47 AM

Or maybe the aircons have got cheaper and more can afford to buy!

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#32
In reply to #19

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 12:49 AM

We don't have to "throw it into the meatgrinder of politics!' the "left has claimed it as a rallying plank and throws it in our face every chance the get. I for one am tired of it, and am far from convinced that it has ANY validity other than something 'lefties' want to tax us over.

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#33

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 12:52 AM

With regards to global warming altogether, I don't know either way but our Aussie government seems convinced it's happening. So much so that as of July 2012 we are paying carbon tax! Yes that's true. We bad Aussies polluting the world are getting taxed...well the big companies anyway, but they in turn will pass the cost to us.

So is the authorities pumping this idea only to introduce another means to top up the piggy bank?

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#34
In reply to #16

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 1:02 AM

He's doing the opposite of jumping to a conclusion. In fact, he is offering YOU the chance to make your case and, instead of doing so, you complain that he won't see things your way and why should he? You haven't offered PROOF. Correlation is not causation. As I'm driving my motorcycle down the highway a crash occurs nearby, a car is run off the road. It's rush hour, there are many other vehicles on the road. Why would you jump to the conclusion I caused it?

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#35

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 1:10 AM

OP's presentation is gently put, arrant nonsense. I do not care about his beliefs one way or the other.

But, science is NOT concensus. Newton was not, Einstein could not give a flying bleep, nor a whole host of others. On the other hand, in 1900 the French Academy of Sciences voted, that heavier than air flight cannot and will not happen. 3 years later, the Wright brothers did it. It seems, they were simply too disrespectful of their learned betters, not knowing their proper place in a civil society?!?

I happened across a research presented in Mail Online. Tree rings prove climate was warmer in Roman and Medieval times than is now - and the world has been cooling for 2,000 years.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2171973/Tree-ring-study/Index.html

Study of semi-fossilized trees gives accurate reading back to 138BC.

In science a single observation counters accepted wisdom. Voting is for politicians, with their well known record of meddlings. Usually not for better outcome, except for those with chronically short memories.

My personal add-on. Earth spends most of its time in IceAges. It is punctuated by short, roughly 13,000 years long warm periodes. If we accept this scenario, we live in borrowed times, before cold takes the upper hand again.

Cogitate on that for a change. I am with the Wright brothers, a hard nosed agnostic on the subiect matter. Market research, as science, my foot!

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#36
In reply to #25

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 1:54 AM

I chuckled quite a bit at your response. Pretty typical of proponents of anthropogenic global warming. Why, oh why do AGW proponents just want everyone to believe so badly without providing proof? People in general want to do the right thing by the planet. Most of us are opposed to pollution. I'm going to ask a rhetorical question. Why do you suppose AGW continues to meet such stiff opposition? PLEASE, don't give me that "oil companies (energy companies, whatever) are behind it. I have yet to encounter a news article in the mainstream media that take a contrary position to AGW. Indeed daily we are bombarded with global warming scare stories full of maybes and could-be's. The reason there is so much opposition is because it's a fraud and people know it. It's utterly shameful as it distracts from REAL pollution problems that should be addressed for public health and safety.

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#37
In reply to #6

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 3:18 AM

Good analogy, but it's based on the wrong assumption. There is in fact a data stream going back millions of years and a quick search of the inter web will find it.

There's a whole lot of clever people who've been researching this topic for decades and in the manner of academics fighting and knocking each other down, what's emerged is a broad consensus that some thing's going on.

If you do have some good ideas re longer temp cycles, Nyquist sampling etc all you need to do is get together with someone in the field, who has enough some credibility, and publish some papers.

Of course, if you've already decided you (with no experience in the whole climate modeling field) know better than the actual experts, it's best to put it all down to a conspiracy, perhaps driven by the evil Al Gore.

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#38
In reply to #36

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 3:32 AM

I'm old enough to remember the 60's & 70's anti pollution rants from the "Greenies". The establishment (gov's, businesses, older people) were convinced it was all a hoax, after all how could we possibly be dumping enough rubbish into the air/sea/lakes/rivers etc to make any difference.

Now of course, everyone is Green and what seemed radical is just common sense.

The reason there's so much opposition is that almost no one has any idea of the actual AGW mechanism. Certainly the media never report anything other than the most extreme claims from either side.

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#39
In reply to #38

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 3:37 AM

uh, yeah, I'm old enough to remember the 60s and 70s and I take issue. Just plain people set about cleaning up, removing garbage that had been dumped in the bodies of water, planting trees, picking up litter, etc. It wasn't considered radical. I still remember the TV commercial with the Native American in a chief's feathered headdress with a few tears running down his face as he contemplated the garbage in a stream, and the plant a tree commercials with John Denver singing, "Plant a tree for all the world to share." The Green movement WAS a good thing until it got co-opted by commies.

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#40
In reply to #37

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 3:40 AM

climate models are worthless. Not just my opinion. Real climate scientists say so. And the reason is obvious to real scientists. It is an extremely complex system and models don't account for the variables. That is why none of them ever work out.

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#41
In reply to #35

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 3:45 AM

It's often forgotten that the actual climate scientists reckon we'll need > 30years of data to see if there's an actual change going on.

The fact that global temps have risen a bit proves nothing we'll need to see what happens long term.

However, based on their models of how the earth's climate systems work it looks like CO2 will have an effect, how much is open to debate. Anyone claiming last weeks hot or cold spell proves something is mistaken.

Unfortunately the media sell more by putting out inflammatory headlines and have no interest in promoting any sort of balance, so we'll continue to see the "sea level to rise 100m by end of decade" drivel.

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#42
In reply to #29

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 3:55 AM

"Even global warming alarmists don't deny that temperatures rise FIRST, then co2 levels increase .. " Really? Any evidence for this statement?

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#43
In reply to #42

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 4:16 AM

Yeah, the much-touted Vostok (? spelling) ice cores prove that the temperature increases first, and the co2 increase comes later. This isn't a secret. Instead of asking me for proof, you can do what I do, find the answer yourself the same way I do, with my computer and the internet. I go for the most "raw" science I can find so that I can be reasonably assured that it hasn't been altered by some hack journalist. As you seem to like weighing in on this topic, perhaps you should familiarize yourself with the various aspects a bit and do a bit of research on your own instead of repeatedly calling into question assertions made by those who actually HAVE put in the research time and effort.

The AGW people acknowledge that the warmer temperatures come first, then the increased co2 and yet somehow in their convoluted thinking they believe (or want people to believe) that the co2 increase causes warmer temperatures. If you are asking for proof that that is what AGW proponents believe, you have a computer. Help yourself. Try Skeptical Science. That's their favorite pseudoscience web site. And there are no doubt Wikipedia articles making the same assertions. Also found a Yale University article (PRO AGW article) by a "scientist" who acknowledged that the effect of co2 is logarithmic and then tries to convince the reader that co2 is still relevant IN SPITE of the fact that the effect is logarithmic. As these articles are nonsense, I'll not attempt to regurgitate them. You are, of course, more than welcome to peruse them yourself. If you come away confused, don't be alarmed. if you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance, baffle 'em with.....

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#44

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 6:18 AM

A 3-year high? I don't think you can prove anything just looking at the last 3 years.

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#45
In reply to #23

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 6:59 AM

Okay. My point was that the evidence brought forward here in our debate has been very, very weak.

The reason it is weak is that the arguments presented do not show a strong link between cause and effect. As an engineer you know that establishing a link demands a level proof that goes well beyond simple observation of correlation. There has to be statistic relevance, which is a cornerstone in all fields of science.

As far as politics go, and this is off track as far as I am concerned, I feel that simple fact-based debate on climate change is no longer possible because politics have willfully injected bias into the science for the purpose of falsely swaying the conclusion. This is not isolated to a single party nor nation, but is systemic in the debate to the point of mortally poisoning the subject.

A truly independent and unbiased study is beyond the reach of any single entity because of the complexity of the subject and the amount of resources required to do fully analytical science.

The whole process has devolved to an emotional argument peppered with cherry picked facts and misinformation and to answer one of the original poster's questions, I don't know how to change that.

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#46
In reply to #34

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 7:36 AM

I have to agree with AH on this.

The problem we have now of is showing proof, is that one can get buried in the proof of statistics, observations, data collection, ect...., to a point that it takes a career to go through it.

If that isn't bad enough. The proof can get selective, where the proof can support both sides on what actually is creating GW.

That is what I always felt is the debate.

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#47
In reply to #27

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 7:40 AM

We also have to genetically engineer a 'current bush' so we can plug our electric devices in.

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#48

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 7:41 AM

There have been MULTIPLE iceages in earths history. What happened between them? DUh!! It warmed up. Man wasn't around to blame for the past warming cycles so why should we(man) fall on our swords for this warming cycle in geologic history?

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#49
In reply to #26

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 7:45 AM

I also respect evidence, and that requires that you look at ALL evidence.

I agree that humans of late have added a great deal carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. We have polluted a large portion of our planet. Was it irresponsible? Yes. But let's look at some evidence shall we.

Find some old pictures from the 1800's or so (this evidence is in the states, do we have similar results elsewhere?). Particularly those in the west. Many photos will not show even one tree. They were all cut down for use in building towns and railroads. Now get some shots of the same location today- most locations will be indistinguishable from the first because it will be grown up with trees. Nature has a way of bouncing back. look at Ohio, we had a river that caught on fire in the 70's for gosh sakes. Today fish and wildlife are back again.

So let's look a little closer at the trees. How big are they? How fast do they grow? Several biologists have said, "trees today are stressed, they can't breathe." Can we grow the huge trees now found buried in the marshes of New Zealand? Can we come close to growing the massive amounts of vegetation that produced the coal seams that are mined today? Didn't all that vegetation have to 'breathe' CO2?

And speaking of coal- Wasn't there a time in the 70's when the fear was, "an ice age was coming" And science of the day was blaming the use of coal and the pollution it created. So putting the shoe on the other foot- If we were in an ice age or one was coming, do you think we could possibly use enough fossil fuels to hold back the glaciers and warm the planet up?

What has really been done is - 'gold mines' in the air have been created. A nondescript , innocuous chemical has been brought to the fore front of the publics mind as a villan, and only certain 'corporations' and banks, have the super hero power to confine it from doing the public harm. (Gee, I wonder why farmers were never given this break when they grew stuff to offset the cost of fuel in their machines) This new commodity has created new business models as stated:

http://www.newforests.net/

The New Forests Company is a UK-based sustainable and socially responsible forestry company with established, rapidly growing plantations and the prospect of a diversified product base for local and regional export markets which will deliver both attractive returns to investors and significant social and environmental benefits

http://www.infowars.com/armed-troops-burn-down-homes-kill-children-to-evict-ugandans-in-name-of-global-warming/

"Friday, September 23, 2011

Armed troops acting on behalf of a British carbon trading company backed by the World Bank burned houses to the ground and killed children to evict Ugandans from their homes in the name of seizing land to protect against "global warming," a shocking illustration of how the climate change con is a barbarian form of neo-colonialism."

The evictions were ordered by New Forests Company, an outfit that seizes land in Africa to grow trees then sells the "carbon credits" on to transnational corporations. The company is backed by the World Bank and HSBC. Its Board of Directors includes HSBC Managing Director Sajjad Sabur, as well as other former Goldman Sachs investment bankers."

So the politicization goes both ways.

I would not have believed the eviction story at all until I happened to meet one of the mercenaries myself. The gold kuugerand bars in his safe, he said, "were payment for wiping out several villages, men, women and children"- whom he was told were "poachers"

And "no" the standard of living will not change from drought and heat stress of agriculture and such, but from the perceived value of your 'money' which is controlled by the banks.

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#50
In reply to #49

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 7:55 AM

Good day deanpavil,

I see you joined CR4 in 2011, GW was a very heated discussion here on CR4 especially around 2009-2010....

And allot that is being stated on this post is regurgitated from earlier threads.......

I think the break from GW's earlier threads rejuvenated people

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#51
In reply to #28

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 8:08 AM

Geez-o-pete. There's plenty of you folks already here, aye.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Canadian_actors

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#52
In reply to #47

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 8:10 AM

I am working on a more portable solution using a lamb. I call it the electric veal.

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#53
In reply to #29

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 8:22 AM

Jerrys --

Much of what you say is stuff I've seen on-line and in print elsewhere. But I have to say, your presentation is one of the clearest and most succinct discussions I've seen. GA.

I like your implied point that if people were truly open-minded, they'd be looking up this stuff themselves. (For example, NY Times economist Paul Krugman never provides links to the articles he discusses.)

Nevertheless, I'd like to see you do a blog entry yourself where you discuss these points in more detail and take the time to link to the articles you mention.

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#54
In reply to #44

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 8:30 AM

No, especially in this economy. It could simply be that, due to lower incomes, people put-off buying new A/C units over the past few years, but now their old units have failed and they've had to buy new ones. Hence the recent surge is merely due to delayed expenditures.

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#55
In reply to #52

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 10:19 AM

Fantastic, does it fit in a suit case when I travel to Europe?

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#56
In reply to #55

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 10:24 AM

It's a walk behind.

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#57
In reply to #40

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 10:31 AM

It seems that one qualification for a "real scientist" is that they agree with you.

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#58
In reply to #57

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 11:02 AM

And the ironic thing is, this can be applied to both groups. Each trying pull a discreet answer from their opposition.

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#59
In reply to #36

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 11:04 AM

People in general want to do the right thing by the planet.

Actually, I've found people largely want to do the right thing by their own wallets.

And don't forget: Corporations are people, too!

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#60

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 11:19 AM

I take a different approach to AGW God how I hate these acronyms, I want to know if we can prove that CO2 does not cause global warming, because if it does, and if we continue to produce it, we may well hit the point of no return and our atmosphere become like that of Venus.

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#61
In reply to #59

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 11:23 AM

include government representives, and you'll have everyone covered

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#62
In reply to #25

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 11:23 AM

The temperature data, seen as a digitised signal is an approach I used to make it easier for engineers (that have a fair grasp of sampling and its limitations) to visualise what I said. Please read it again (and again) and if you don't understand something, or something is not clear, just ask. S.M.

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#63
In reply to #60

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 11:24 AM

What kind of proof do you actually need or require?

And if that is supplied, would you accept it?

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#64
In reply to #45

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 11:48 AM

I disagree and strongly agree with many aspects that you've said here.

I disagree that the facts and research I've presented are very weak evidence to the points I was trying to make. They are very strong evidence to the points I was making that there is tangible evidence that the Earth is warming and that our use of fossil fuel is globally changing the balance of atmospheric CO2. (I did not finish the latter argument and will later after work.)

I strongly agree that the politics has made it virtually impossible to make global warming a reasoned discussion. Just look at the pile on that has filled this initially "tongue in cheek" thread. As for how to change this, I can only change myself. I will try to provide cited scientific data and analysis for the facets I believe are proven. Please recognize that I am only proving the facet and not any other grand idea. I will stride to indicate what I believe to be a valid or invalid conjecture from proven facets as my opinion. There will be many gaps between the facets I can prove. Others have proven many other facets, too. Likely some proven facets will disagree with my conjectures because I, like everybody else, cannot see or analyze the whole picture.

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#65
In reply to #60

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 12:10 PM

Venus is hot because of the atmospheric pressure and its proximity to our Sun, not, as many people have been led to believe, due to the concentration of CO2.

The other indicator that CO2 may not be a direct factor as far as surface temperature is concerned is that historically we have had much higher concentrations of CO2 (before man) and the surface temperature was both warmer and colder than average temperatures today.

We know that we are pumping CO2 into the atmosphere, but what is not clear is the corresponding effects this will have and clearly we have had periods of much, much, higher concentrations of CO2 in our historical past.

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#66

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 12:11 PM

There may be global warming, but it is all up to our sun, not humans..!!!

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#67
In reply to #57

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 12:26 PM

A real scientist loves science for science's sake. The phonies (Hansen, Mann, Jones) love money and will stab science in the heart for money. I have no respect for them. There are, I was dismayed, but not surprised, to find out, a disheartening number of scientists and scientific organizations and publications who have stabbed science and their fellow scientists in the back FOR MONEY. In fact, 49 NASA scientists and astronauts, HIGHLY respected men, jointly wrote a letter to NASA director in protest of Hansen. Hansen violated NASA policy with his continuous public speaking in which he claimed the science of AGW was a done deal, which is not NASA's official position. They said he gave science, scientists, and NASA a "bad reputation. Hansen's supervisor, Dr. Theon, chastised him publicly for falsifying data, manipulating data, refusing to tell where his data came from and refusing to disclose the particulars of his models so that independent scientists could verify them.

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#68
In reply to #64

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 12:33 PM

Thanks. I look forward to that reply. I will be out this evening so I may not get to read it until tomorrow.

I agree that there is strong evidence that our burning of fossil fuel is pumping CO2 into the atmosphere and that CO2 is changing the planetary concentration.

Where I run afoul of the cries that CO2 is responsible for the current changes in average surface temperatures is that we have strong historical evidence that suggests otherwise.

I just posted this chart (many times before) that illustrates the relationship (or lack thereof) between CO2 and surface temperature.

The chart is not a debunking of AGW (Al Gore Warming as I like to call it), but it raises questions about the real association between CO2 and surface temperature. This is why when I see a chart showing a 100 or 200 year track of atmospheric CO2 and surface temperature used as proof of AGW or causation I raise a red flag.

The data only shows a correlation and there is a much broader set of data that seems to suggest that what we are seeing in the past 200 years may simply be a statistical fluke.

In my career as an engineer I have seen many instances where we, as a team, were chasing our tails based on what turned out to be a correlation based only on chance and not actually linked to the real causative agent.

I do not know what is really driving climate change nor do I know what percentage of this current change is anthropogenic. I am not yet convinced anyone else truly knows, either. I do believe the CO2 argument has been proven to be very weak.

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#69
In reply to #60

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 12:55 PM

One reason why it's so hot on Venus is that its "DAY" lasts longer than its year. The rotation period is 243 Earth days and its year is 224 days 16 hours.How hot do you think it will be here on earth if the sun shines for 13 months?

On global warming, I do think it is getting warmer but since it started to get warmer about 12,000 years ago I don't think mankind has much to do about it. If and when the climate scientists can explain what caused the last ice age and why it ended, only then will I believe that they know enough to start monkeying around with the controls. Until then I think we should do what we have been doing for the last few million years-ADAPT.

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#70
In reply to #65

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 1:34 PM

Why the hell did I put the crack about Venus in there, now it is being used as a straw man. I don't care how Venus became hot, only that with a permanent cloud cover, it cannot go back.

My point was that the emphasis on proving that CO2 does cause global warming is backwards. We need to know that it does not cause global warming, to find the single negative that negates the theory.

I have to search, I had a chart once that showed something other than yours, I don't remember where I put it.

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#71

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 1:39 PM

My high school science taught me that warmer air holds more water. So if the earth warms, the balance of the amount of water in each of the phases will shift from solid (ice bergs & ice caps) to liquid to gas (atmosphere). Water in the atmosphere blocks energy from the sun so that it cannot warm the earth's surface. (Cloudy days are cooler than sunny days.) It is an ingenious self regulating feedback system.

We also know that if we fill a glass full of ice and then add water or scotch up to the brim so that the ice rises above the brim that if we get distracted and don't consume the contents and let the ice melt that the contents does not over flow the glass.

We also know that the volume of the oceans are much greater than the volume of the frozen water in the polar caps and the volume of the atmosphere is much greater than the oceans. Alarmists that say that the oceans will rise when the polar caps melt tend to ignore the these universally know scientific principles and leave them out of their models.

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#72
In reply to #70

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 1:39 PM

I don't care how Venus became hot, only that with a permanent cloud cover, it cannot go back.

Wasn't you that asked for proof? Nothing better than a comparison.

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#73
In reply to #63

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 2:10 PM

The Grand Canyon has flooded five times in its existance. None of the times it flooded, man was around to see it. The water came from the polar ice caps. Global warming caused it and it will again. There is nothing man has or can do about it.

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#74
In reply to #73

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 2:21 PM

I got only two things I have to say about tha'at.

  1. It would help if you have references to that, otherwise that is nothing more than a statement.
  2. and I am not the one requesting proof
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#75
In reply to #74

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 3:31 PM

http://www.t-rat.com/Pages/GeologicalHistGrandCanyon.html

I'm at work and don't have much time to look, but maybe you can read this while you're waiting on a bus.

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#76
In reply to #75

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 3:44 PM

oh, now your sending me on a bus trip.

I hope no one takes my bench

where am I going?

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#77
In reply to #75

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 3:48 PM

Cool link!

I have been there, but not that long ago. :)

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#78

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 3:52 PM

From everything I have been able to read an learn this is what global warming and climate change comes down to,

Everywhere that did not get colder or stay the same got warmer and everything in the first two gets ignored because they are not politically relevant.

I once did believe in the AGW hype and did my best to defend the facts. The problem was in order to defend those facts I had to find solid data and references to back then up. Unfortunately the deeper I dug the less creditable the AGW data became plus when comparing that data to the regular cycles and overall numbers of what relate to nature that data didn't even break through the average margin of error that goes with the global values of energies volumes mass or any other plausible natural events as measured and estimated by creditable science.

Sorry but I cant accept that when the upper limit estimates of what we do still cant break through the normal margin of error values for what is typical weather, climatic, or overall energy level variations let alone truly add or subtract from the systems as whole that this planet operates on that we are the cause or solution.

And no you cant see my data sources. It comes from places that are not on the approved list of reference sources for the AGW/climate change believers sect.

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#79
In reply to #40

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 4:45 PM

I will agree that climate modelling is complex and not all variables are yet accounted. One problem variable that is highly overlooked is the release of hydrates from ocean disturbances. We saw what a small disturbances caused by man can do in the Gulf of Mexico. Imagine what nature is doing. Yet no one is attempting to monitor these disturbances for methane releases. The Storrega slide is 8000 years old and it has only been in the last three years that anyone has been able to find chimneys of releases of CO2 not methane. The reasons are plenty but some has do do with the ready conversion of CH4 to CO2. The Storrega slide was very large between Norway and Greenland. Imagine the releases from such earthquakes as the recent one in Japan or when the Tsunami hit the Indian Ocean. Yet these releases are not even included in the models. How could they when they are not monitored?

The complexity of the measuring and observations required are the biggest reason it is hard to believe the science when they try to make dire predictions. Man may be a small issue but even if we went back to cave dwellers, I fear the earth will warm or cool regardless (despite anything man can do either way). If the proponents want to get the attention of everyone, they need to stop yelling at us that the sky is falling. I would still not throw out the baby with the bath water. The models just need much better understanding and interpretation.

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#80
In reply to #78

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 5:18 PM

Oh, man, thank you so much for posting. That is similar to my experience except I never defended it because I didn't give it much thought UNTIL the climate-gate issue arose. Then I realized it was junk science. I still wasn't overly concerned because I didn't, at that point in time, know the MOTIVATION for AGW. Then came the carbon tax. THAT concerned me. I noticed the media just bombarding the public with these AGW scare stories. Already on to that modus operandi, using a "boogeyman" to get people all worked up and emotional and turn their brains off and just believe. The terrorist boogeyman/Muslim boogeyman (Patriot act, NDAA, etc.) and the financial Armageddon boogeyman (bail-outs for the uber-rich, screw the middle class). Now we have an environmental boogeyman, OMG, CO2!!!! That's plant food. Oh, the horror!!!. And they tip their hand, thank you, it's all about (BIG SURPRISE!!!) money (and power, of course). What is truly telling is exactly ZERO AGW "scientists" (and Al Gore) are willing to engage in a debate concerning this issue, even though there is an open invitation for them to do so. So, I chuckled a good deal upon reading your post. I caught on to them wanting us to get all worked up about numbers that didn't even exceed the margin of error. PRICELESS!

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#81
In reply to #80

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 6:24 PM

The 'Just Believe" part is where it all falls/fell apart for me.

As most people who have ever gotten into any form of online debate over this subject have seen the 'Just Believers' claim to have all the proof and facts in the world to back them up yet oddly enough when it all comes down to it they are the ones who post the least amount of links to anything credible or otherwise and what they do link to tends to only come from their 'Prescribed and authorized list' of sources. Anything that comes from any source outside that list or is contradictory to their thoughts is not to be looked at accepted or to be taken as a valid, let alone plausible, source of data or information ever.

Good science does not have a prescribed list or a 'it's only correct if it agrees with this' political agenda or view. If the math and overall data doesn't add up or is highly inconclusive and large or very large primary influences in system at play have to ignored or tossed out to make something work then by my understanding that end result is not valid.

From what I have seen and participated in with these types of debates over the last number of years it sort of plays out like this.

CO2 is bad (except to all the plant life that we need to survive on).

Its never been hotter or higher in concentration (except since the last time it was higher or hotter but we cant discuss that because that was a "different" high or hotter point).

Water vapor has no effect or validity in these scenarios (except for the reality where it plays between 85 - 95+% of the role in it lowest and highest active levels).

Humans dump vast amounts of energy into the environment so they are at fault (except that when compared to nature we don't contribute even a very small fraction of a percent of what the planetary energy values are at any point in time and much of what we do use was borrowed directly from or is already part of a natural possess in the first place).

That's my take as someone who switched sides simply because my views of good science don't allow me to ignore the obvious or greater parts in favor of the less plausible or outright wrong political motivations.

Where I live warming things up year round is a good thing and benefits us greatly. If its doesn't benefit someone else, where the odds are the place they live in is already borderline hot and crappy to begin with, why would I want to change my ways?

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#82
In reply to #71

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 7:14 PM

Alarmists that say that the oceans will rise when the polar caps melt tend to ignore the these universally know scientific principles and leave them out of their models.

Your principles are not correctly stated. For example, water in the atmosphere is a well-recognized greenhouse gas, and does not have the net effect of cooling, as you incorrectly imply.

But more importantly, uneducated alarmists are not scientists. I am not aware of any scientific model for seal level rise that leaves out the few parts of your post that are facts. To which model are you referring? Sea level rise is occurring mainly from ice over land melting, not ice that is already supported by water. Your glass of water analogy is taken into account in every model of which I am aware. Climate scientists are not as profoundly stupid as your "alarmists" who are unacquainted with the most basic science.

I gather than you (like many Fox News viewers) are unaware that Antarctica is a land mass.

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#83
In reply to #82

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 7:59 PM

I watch fox news and I have always known that Antarctica was a land mass as is Greenland. Many fox news watchers are far more well informed than the true believers at MSMBC.

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#84
In reply to #82

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 8:25 PM

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap09/rossow.html
This website states that clouds both cool, and warm the earth, but the net effect is "cooling". So 'who' are you going to believe and 'why'?
My point is the exact same one that you have been spouting, that you yourself reject the "facts" that don't fit your political view point, because you have already made up your mind. That is as good a place as any to end this thread, as it is going to settle nothing. Ya'll can keep it up if you want to but I have had enough.

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#85
In reply to #82

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 9:50 PM

Gonna have to take exception to your premise. Water has a MODERATING effect on the earth's temperature. And here's why. Latent heat of vaporization. A given quantity of water (in liquid state) requires X amount of energy to raise it one degree. It takes 973X amount of energy (973 times as much) for that same quantity of water to change from liquid state to gaseous state without an attendant rise in temperature. THAT is the latent heat of vaporization. This heat energy is effectively extracted from the surface of the earth. Via convection (heat rises) this heat energy is carried high up into the atmosphere. Here the water cools and condenses (returns to a liquid) and, in doing so, it surrenders the latent heat of vaporization high up in the atmosphere and this heat energy gets radiated back into space. The water (now in liquid form) returns to the surface as precipitation. This cycle repeats itself endlessly.

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#86
In reply to #78

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 10:38 PM

You have valid reasons, not to put sources on the table. One, you did not mention was a minor annoyance to me over the years. That is the "miraculous disappearance" of links you are referring to as supporting material. It happened to me time and again, when I presented facts or studies inconvenient to the AGW crowd.

On this very thread in #35, I reported on tree ring studies, reaching back 2000 years, showing roman, medieval warm periods, small ice age and an overall slight cooling:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2171973/Tree-ring-study/Index.html.

That is where I found it, there is where I checked it before submitting it. By morning it was pointing to a general home page, by the evening (most likely the webmaster) flagged it as invalid, as it was a nonsense duplicate pointer. It took me an annoyed minute to find a pages long list of copies, like this:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2171973/Tree-ring-study-proves-climate-WARMER-Roman-Medieval-times-modern-industrial-age.html

What simple minded true believers do not grasp (among others), that interesting stuff goes viral on the internet. And from that point on, it is immortal. A misaligned pointer does not erase anything. But it speaks volumes about mindsets, and about unwillingness to open debate.

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#87
In reply to #72

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 10:53 PM

If you are going to reply to my posts, do me the courtesy of reading them first. I just picked Venus because it cannot go back, it is beyond the point of no return.

I hope that we are not responsible for GW but if we are, there is the danger of passing the tipping point. While there are many indicators that add to the theory that we are responsible, it would take only one negative to disprove it. I think we should be looking for that negative.

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#88
In reply to #80

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 11:27 PM

You said it better that I could have! Using fear and the backs of the environmentally conscious is just a matter of convenience. Remember the 'hole' in the ozone layer?

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#89
In reply to #86

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 11:28 PM

Been there done that and more.

On another site I frequent in threads like these I have been given "inappropriate language" warnings from moderators despite the fact they could not give reference to one single word that fit let alone broke any forum rules.

I have been banned for week long periods for "provoking other members" with valid links to agencies like NASA and other well known international weather, atmospheric, and space monitoring organizations web sites.

I have had some to all of my posts disappear or get heavily edited in threads for being "off topic" and complete threads disappear or get locked as well.

Now I am banned again for a week for breaking the "Don't discuss the moderators" rule that does not exist in the rule section of that forum. The thing is I didn't discuss the moderators rather I commented on the moderators of this site and another I frequent as being better than many other forums moderation teams.

You would think that all of this would annoy me more but being much of these issues come up or happen days after I have posted and many others have commented, quoted, or expanded on what I have said plus as according to the view counters it has been seen by many others I just don't think that it makes me look like the bad person!

Personally one of my favorites is when my posts get edited or disappear a day or more after one or more people have quoted me and then a moderator leaves a note saying what I said was off topic or inappropriate despite obvious quoted proof that it wasn't being a few posts away from mine!

Unfortunately now in that forum topics such as this have been banned specifically since all they do is make certain moderators look like highly biased fools. I may not win but given the playing field I come out quite far from looking like the biggest looser out there!

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#90
In reply to #88

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/26/2012 11:35 PM

Nah, too easy. Not gonna touch it.

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#91
In reply to #69

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 2:31 AM

"If and when the climate scientists can explain what caused the last ice age and why it ended....." It's called Milankovich cycles. The earth's relationship to the SUN, tilt on its axis (it varies), distance from the sun (it varies) whether it is further from the sun in the summer or winter... and variations in solar output (they are mostly cyclical with apparently some surprises from time to time).

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#92
In reply to #89

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 2:38 AM

I like to drive the AGW crowd nuts by using simple math and their own "data" against them. It gets the rest of the readership thinking. Math doesn't lie. It is what it is. So, when I can FINALLY pin them down about something they believe... So, they CLAIM that co2 is 8% of "global warming," and there seems to be universal agreement that nature puts out 97% of the co2 and mankind 3% (ants put out twice as much co2 as humans). So, there's two numbers I can work with. 0.08 x 0.03 = 0.0024. Convert to percentile.... So (this is rich), one of those gooberheads comes back with it's MAN'S CO2 that is 8% of global warming. That's NOT what the learned professors at AGW Central claim, but, okay, lets do the math anyway.... shoot, now we have the total "global warming" (from co2 alone) at 240%. I guess poor old insignificant water vapor (85% to 95% of the greenhouse phenomenon) just got beat out by the mighty 380 ppm CO2!

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#93

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 5:44 AM

http://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/2008/07/how-to-talk-to-a-sceptic/

it doesn't suit people to change their lifestyles, people don't like change, give contradictory explanations and they don't have to, that's ok it's not real, just sit back and watch.

It's already too late; how much latent heat has gone into melting all that ice? As engineers, you understand positive feedback and can probably predict what will happen next.

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#94
In reply to #92

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 7:14 AM

Well, I am doing my part to reduce my carbon footprint by spreading fire ant poison in my yard.

Just wanted you to know. :)

Where are my carbon credits?

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#95
In reply to #81

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 7:32 AM

I agree the 'just believe' GW fanatics was the most detrimental to GW, but I do disagree about the link. Some of the just believe, when challenged them they would bury you in links data.

The problem I had was, there were information and data supporting both sides, when I pointed that out, the reply was very aggressive 'Just Believe', with no explanation the the data not supporting the 'just believe'.

There was no middle ground, you were either on board or not! As though it was that simple.

I was so tired of that, I told them, GW is happening as a natural cyclic action, and maybe, no matter how many carbon credits you purchased, its just that the Human Race was not part of earths future.

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#96
In reply to #87

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 7:46 AM

As far as the courtesy, if your offended from me actually reading your post, that I see no reason to apologize for..

Yes I was replying to your reference to your post #60.

this is sounding like tit for tat and as far as courtesy, thank you for actually finally responding though indirectly from my post #63 to you.

That is the problem, proof of GW is not discreet, not black and white, yes or no. it is very grey. and IMO that is no proof either way. So proof is hard to present, unless you pick a side, and use selective data.

And as far as looking for the negative, I not sure I understand your meaning of negative.

I feel, one should narrow it down, how? no one has the answer to that including myself.

Maybe instead of looking at what is causing GW, look what is not causing GW. get rid of the distractions, would this help. I can't answer that.

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#97
In reply to #60

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 9:33 AM

It is well documented (by VGW scientists probably) that Venus warming is venusiansgenic. It's settled. Don't start that debate again! S.M.

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#98
In reply to #84

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 12:49 PM

So 'who' are you going to believe and 'why'?

I will believe the qualified scientists, just as (should the need arise) I will go to a heart surgeon rather than a butcher. Politicians are fundamentally clueless about this -- they don't have the education or experience to understand the science. People who think that the ice melting analogy presented by Snave is not taken into account in sea level rise models are, functionally speaking, idiots. They know nothing of the subject matter, and so contribute only noise. In other respects, Snave may be competent, but here, he presents a political, not scientific, argument.

I favor science over political screed, so must question why you bring up your non sequitur re clouds. Clouds are not water vapor, as anyone vaguely acquainted with basic science knows. Water vapor is an invisible gas, and has been well-accepted as a powerful greenhouse gas by scientists for many decades. So your comment is a distraction -- it has nothing to do with my comment. Yes, I believe that clouds can have a net cooling effect, but I did not bring up clouds in my post. I brought up water vapor, a different thing. If you can find a valid source that claims that water vapor is not a greenhouse gas, then present that, rather than something irrelevant.

The facts I've presented in my previous post have nothing to do with my political views. I present them to point out how silly the arguments (such as Snave's) can become if you throw science out the window, and rely only on myth.

You are right that this thread will settle nothing -- the people here are not climate scientists. It was started as a joke, of course. No one with a clue thinks that air conditioner sales actually have anything to do with global warming. But even so, such a thread brings out the anti-science crowd. Some of them are deadly earnest in "debunking" the air conditioner/warming "connection" because they are so out of touch that they can't even get the joke.

Your post is typical of the political end of the discourse. Rather than address anything in my post to which you are replying, you come up with a new distraction. This is the kind of thing that flies just fine on Fox news, but not in scientific circles. (What about clouds? What about sunspots? What about lollipops? What about the CO2 from Gore's jet?) Do we who care just ignore such drivel (effectively giving the wackos a stronger voice) or do we respond to the irrelevant drivel, wasting time that could be better spent?

Does the Fox News technique work? Sure. Now, several studies have shown that Fox news viewers actually become stupider as they watch more. Already at the bottom of the heap in understanding basic science and current events, (and apparently unable to evaluate an argument) the "shout louder" technique works just fine to make these folks even dumber and more pliable in the hands of those with power.

My point is the exact same one that you have been spouting, that you yourself reject the "facts" that don't fit your political view point, because you have already made up your mind.

I have not been "spouting" that I reject the facts. Just the opposite. I rely heavily on facts and scientific process. In the scientific process, as practiced by real scientists, consensus does, in fact, matter.

We have not proved how gravity works. But we have a consensus on certain gravitational principles. We have not proved that evolution is occurring, but have a very strong consensus that it is occurring in fundamental ways that we all agree about.

One can side with the scientists who are actually educated in the relevant sciences or one can side with one political viewpoint or another. I favor science for providing a better description of how things work. Politicians are out for money and power. Scientists thrive on figuring out what's really going on, and why.

Politicians throw in strawmen (such as confusing clouds with water vapor, suggesting that scientists are too stupid to allow for ice displacement, etc, etc, etc.) to "win" arguments by wearing down the opposition.

I am worn down, so do not generally participate in discussions like this one in which most of the arguments are fundamentally political rather than scientific (or are so ill-informed re the basic science to be of no scientific value).

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#99
In reply to #82

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 12:52 PM

Ken -

Although Dr. Andrew Dessler is a well respected scientist and a professor at a well respected university, he makes some wild claims such as: "Everyone agrees that if you add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, then warming will result," Dessler said. "So the real question is, how much warming?"

A few years back I was put in charge of a research project to advance a technology. The study was concluded with a demonstration. I had a team of engineers and several firms that we contracted. In total there were four PHDs on the payroll. We had teaching professors from Cornell and Berkley. We also had a stack of reports from a well respected German PHD. Believe it or not, we found contradictions in the conclusions from the PHDs and we had pages of equations that I did not understand. What to do? We designed experiments. Then designed and built equipment to make the measurements.

The result was that the most respected German PHD in his field was just wrong on several of his conclusions. We were using one of his patented inventions but couldn't get it to work as claimed. It was a small mechanism that had a taper and a pivot. One controlled rate of action and the other controlled force. So we designed equipment instrumented with strain gauges feeding an analyzer. To our surprise, the tests showed that he had the interactions crossed. We were able to write new equations on how his invention worked and were then able to design and build devices that worked to expectations that met our needs.

The study also involved four other areas that we were to advance.

Armed with the real story on the science, we were able to design and build prototype hardware that achieved the goals established by our USG customer. The study was wrapped up by producing a collection of reports. We had reports which discussed the principles and we had reports from others with supporting test results. My group also filed for and received several patents.

Less than half of the work produced by the PHDs commissioned to work on the study produced any value.

So when a PHD makes a claim, I say: Show me the data.

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#100
In reply to #99

Re: The Real Truth About Global Warming

07/27/2012 1:23 PM

So when a PHD makes a claim, I say: Show me the data.
Good policy. Ditto re BS's and MS's.

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