The Case for Being Dumber
It's easy to find anecdotal
evidence about how 'stupid' the world has become. Take a look at the millions
of tacky social media posts. Consider that new age celebrities are pretty much
normal people live-playing video games or doing a stunt on YouTube. The average
person's job might soon be replaced with AI and a robot, because so many jobs
and tasks are menial and repetitive.
It's
more difficult to find scientific evidence about a global decrease in general
intelligence, but research does exist. According to a
2013 joint study conducted by researchers from UmeƄ University, Vrije
Universiteit Brussel, University of Amsterdam and University College Cork,
Western populations are 14 IQ points dumber than Victorian ancestors.
The
researchers studied data from mental chronometry
tests conducted between 1884 and 2004. In a mental chronometry test,
participants must press a button when visually cued. Since the eyes perceive
the cue and the brain commands the button press, reaction time correlates to
mental acuity.
After analyzing the data researchers found that visual
reaction times in the 19th Century were an average of 194
milliseconds, but in 2004 were an average of 275 milliseconds.
As
possible explanation, one of the researchers indicated that there is a
well-documented negative
correlation between IQ and fertility-basically dumb people are likely to
produce more offspring. This is sometimes called the Smart Man's Burden; though
I would prefer to call it the Idiocracy principle after this clip from the
2006 movie (strong language).
The Case for Being Smarter
Look at
all this technology! Cell phones, tablet computers, graphene, autonomous cars,
AI-playing Go, and more. Or is this just an instance of a few very intelligent
individuals enriching the lives of everyone else?
According
to data from American-born and New Zealand-based professor Dr. James Flynn,
each one of us is considerably smart than any of our ancestors. Flynn first
hypothesized that there are substantial intelligence gains in successive
generations over the past 100 years. This is called the Flynn effect.
Flynn
analyzed test data from Raven's
Progressive Matrices (RPMs), which are reasoning tests meant to interpret
reasoning and fluid intelligence. RPMs are regularly updated and standardized
so the majority of test-takers receive results with an average of IQ 100
points, with a standard deviation of 15 IQ points. When these sample test-takers
also take previous iterations of the RPMs, they regularly score higher than 100
IQ points.
These
improved test scores are consistent and linear. Flynn received similar results
for sample test-takers born in the previous 100 years in both Iowa and Scotland. In the U.S. this is an improvement of 3 IQ points per decade, when
scaled by Weschler Intelligence Scale for Children tests. Other countries note
similar IQ gains, albeit at different rates of increase.
Some
studies of the Flynn effect have found that many of the IQ gains happen at the
lower ends of the sample distribution, which buoys IQ averages. Basically the
simpletons of today are better educated than older individuals in the same part
of the IQ distribution.
Flynn
himself struggles to pinpoint any single reason why population IQs are going
up. He believes that our modern societies are more cognitively challenging and
better enable smart individuals to seek new challenges. Other researchers
believe that improvements in schooling and test taking lead to better results,
but not necessarily smarter people. Biological parameters, such as improving
nutrition and preventative medicine, are also sometimes credited.
Nonetheless,
Flynn expects there to be IQ improvement apex, where eventually IQs begin
slipping as the Smart Man's Burden takes a larger presence. Some argue that
it's already here.
The Verdict
So how
do you feel? Are we smarter or dumber than our ancestors of 50 or 100 years
ago?
There
likely will never be a method to objectively evaluate this; the above are just
two contradicting examples of many, many more studies about this topic.
Before
you weigh in, remember the Dunning-Kruger
effect: dumb people think they're smarter than they really are.
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