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The Benefits or Perils of Cap-and-Trade

Posted June 28, 2009 7:54 AM

Current legislation before Congress could notably impact greenhouse gas emissions for chemical companies. Given that the chemicals industry currently accounts for 5% of total greenhouse gas emissions, if new standards are put in place it could mean sweeping changes for chemical manufacturing plants. If the standards are adopted, should other countries adopt similar standards as well? Do you think the legislation will have a positive or negative impact on the industry? What potential for improvement do these laws offer?

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#1

Re: The Benefits or Perils of Cap-and-Trade

06/28/2009 11:02 PM

As I have stated elsewhere, this bill is a 1500 page economic suicide note that none of the congress even bothered to read before they voted to slit our own throats. The only way it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions will be by destroying economic output worldwide.

1929 was not the great depression, 2009 will be.

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#3
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Re: The Benefits or Perils of Cap-and-Trade

06/29/2009 12:27 AM

As I have stated elsewhere, this bill is a 1500 page economic suicide note that none of the congress even bothered to read before they voted to slit our own throats.

Furthermore, sir, they do not remember their 6th grade general science. Not only is this economic suicide from what it will do to our industrial sector, it is actual physical suicide, depriving us of the Oxygen we need for survival. Back in 6th grade, I was taught that CO2 comes from atmospheric Oxygen combining with organic carbon, whether from current or fossil sources, and whether from man's activity or natural causes. The Oxygen is restored to the atmosphere when plants release it as they combine water and CO2 in photosynthesis.

Sequestering CO2 is the biggest single crime against humanity that can be perpetrated. When that gas is sequestered without recycling through a plant's photosynthesis, Oxygen is effectively removed from the atmosphere. It may not make any noticeable difference if a few hundred tons get sequestered, but give these idiots an economic incentive, and they will begin sequestration on a scale that will begin to be noticed.

If you have a problem with excessive CO2 in the atmosphere, take a lesson from Gaviotas, Colombia, where they have successfully restored a moderate tract of closed canopy tropical rain forest, and made it pay its own way. Trees are the answer, not cap-and-trade.

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#2

Re: The Benefits or Perils of Cap-and-Trade

06/29/2009 12:25 AM

I stand with Rorschach on this one. I don't want to get repetitive, but you can look for our posts under different threads if interested.

What I will add here is that an assumed premise of social engineering is that there is usually a feasible and available choice involved, eg, you'll get a tax break if you get married instead of cohabitating.

In this case, there is no (feasible) choice...This country runs on oil whether you like it or not...to have a punitive tax on gasoline, when there are no electric cars, etc is ludicrous.

And of course, electricity is not good enough, we have to tax coal, oil, and gas generation, and hamstring the regs for getting a nuke built, so the only alternative is wind and solar, which simply CANNOT replace what is being generated today. Maybe someday, but not TODAY. I cannot overstate how much Wind Power is an economic loser, and how the undependability of the wind has caused a return to profitability of gas plants and gas turbine peakers.

As stated elsewhere on this site, my company stands to benefit from this legislation. Benefit meaning that their competitors will be more punitively taxed than we will be. It makes me sick to watch them trump it up and try to convince us to write our congressmen to get it passed. I have come short of career suicide in trying to have a discussion with my local management about the wrong-headedness of this. Evidently the lesson from the GM/Chrysler/banking debacle was lost on our management.

I sure wish modern managers would go back to earning a fair living based on their performance, ideas, and hard work, and not by perceived success by watching the government crush the competition.

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#4

Re: The Benefits or Perils of Cap-and-Trade

06/29/2009 8:18 AM

OK, so we do a carbon tax that raises cost for every industry using fossil fuels. The bean counters will send production to the "under-developed" countries like China with no concerns about CO2 emissions, where they open a new coal-fired generation plant each week, and India, etc, and we will become a country of welfare, unemployed and paper shufflers. "You want fries with that?" This legislation is industrial suicide unless ALL countries agree to it and we all play on a level field. You saw how the textile industry went overseas for lower labor costs. Textiles is now virtually extinct in the USA. Chemicals and manufacturing will do the same thing to escape the carbon tax, but on a more massive scale! I'd rather we plant more trees, restore the rain forests or seed plankton with iron.

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#5

Re: The Benefits or Perils of Cap-and-Trade

06/29/2009 10:07 AM

If other countries don't adopt similar standards, I believe there is language in the bill to allow for a tariff system (or something similar) to be implemented to help protect the US manufacturing base from non-adhering countries. It will probably be tough (impossible really) to tell the difference between adhering and non-adhering though.

I think the legislation will have a negative impact on the chemical industry in the US, which has been dying a slow death for years in my opinion. Some companies will benefit by making the super amine (or other technology) required to remove CO2 from flue gas. There will be some remnant left, but it will continue to be more and more specialized as the general chemical production moves elsewhere. However, I believe this is already occurring and not a function of the CO2 legislation. Just look at ammonia production in the US as an example.

In the past, I imagine there were plenty of folks predicting death for industry due to the clean air and water acts and other punitive forms of legislation. Some will survive and others will fold up the tent.

There will be a market now for CO2 removal systems just like there is now a market for NOX removal systems in non-attainment areas like Houston. Coal gasification may now have a leg to stand on as well.

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#6

Re: The Benefits or Perils of Cap-and-Trade

06/30/2009 5:48 PM

If we were looking for a way to become a third-world bannana republic in a hurry, this is it. The only benefit of cap and trade will be to our adversaries.

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#7

Re: The Benefits or Perils of Cap-and-Trade

06/30/2009 9:19 PM

Somebody please explain something to me...How does the "Trade" part of "Cap & Trade" work? Are the same financial geniuses who brought us undefinable derivatives, and the "safety in numbers" bundles of sub-prime mortgages going to be in charge of the Trade part of Cap & Trade? All they've learned from the financial melt-down is how to raise exorbitant salaries even higher to skirt the rules on bonus payments. Makes me sick to even think about it!

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Re: The Benefits or Perils of Cap-and-Trade

06/30/2009 10:16 PM

Yep, that is exactly it. in theory what is supposed to happen is that each company is given a certain number of "credits" that they may use per year, if they don't use them all they can sell them. but what will happen is that every year they will get fewer and fewer credits such that at some point (and that point could be at the very outset.) there just won't be enough credits in circulation to cover all the emissions that must be released. so the companies will either have to cheat, shut down when they reach their limit, or pay fines for emitting beyond their limits. there will be a financial marketplace put together to trade them so there will be multiple levels of overhead involved, and I am sure that the allocation of credits won't be even or fair. I'm sure that if you are one of the chosen few you will be showered with credits that you can turn around and sell at a huge profit when the supply of credits gets low at the end of the year.

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#8

Re: The Benefits or Perils of Cap-and-Trade

06/30/2009 10:12 PM

Other countries will not comply and the there will be no impact on the environment what so ever even if they do comply. Meaning China and India. The only impact there will be is an increase in the cost of virtually everything. This legislation is nothing more than an enormous tax increase. What in the hell are our legislatures thinking about??? This bill is going to cost jobs, raise the cost of living and increase our taxes to the point of national bankruptcy.

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Re: The Benefits or Perils of Cap-and-Trade

06/30/2009 10:19 PM

Actually there will be an impact, but not the way they think there will be. our economy will nosedive and all the rest of the world's economies will nosedive right along behind us since our economy is such a big driver for the rest of the world. when all the worlds economies crater, production will crater, which will bring energy usage way down. I would submit that that is a non-ideal scenario.

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