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Woolly Bears as Winter Indicators - True or False?

Posted November 18, 2009 12:01 AM by SavvyExacta

When I lived in a rural area, I tried to count the many woolly bear caterpillars I saw each autumn. One season my tally reached over a hundred before I gave up! Now that I live in a small city, I have yet to see a single woolly bear. What will I use to predict the winter – and should I have even used woolly bears in the first place?

From Bears to Tigers – Oh My!

Found in North America, the banded woolly bear caterpillar is the larva of the Isabella tiger moth. We see them "scampering" around in the fall because they have recently emerged from eggs. Woolly bears eat plants and prefer low vegetation, which is probably why I haven't seen them in the city – despite living near a wooded bike path and "forever wild" area.

Over the winter, they hide under leaves and create their own protection from the freezing weather; it's called cryoprotectant and it actually prevents them from freezing! Glycols are commonly used in preventing ice formation. Similar stuff is also used in food – ever wonder why your ice cream isn't ice?

In the spring, woolly bears warm up, eat, pupate, emerge from their cocoons, and turn into Isabelle tiger moths.

Folklore or Weathermen?

Where I'm from, kids grow up trying to predict the weather based on the length of the brown middle section of a woolly bear. Folklore says, the longer the mid-section, the shorter the winter and vice versa.

From 1948 to 1956, American Museum of Natural History insect curator, Dr. C. H. Curran, studied woolly bears in Bear Mountain State Park, New York. He found that Woolly bears have 13 band segments in a black-brown- black pattern. During this time period, the caterpillars averaged 5.3 to 5.6 segments of brown bands – more than a third of their body length. The winters during the same period happened to be milder than average.

According to almost all of the other sources I reviewed, this theory is untrue. Band length can vary based upon a number of factors, including but not limited to:

  • Age – the black outer bands decrease as the caterpillar matures
  • Color variation – even larvae from the same clutch can have different brown band length from the start

Still, the woolly bear is important to many people. Take, for example:

  • The Woollybear Festival in Vermillion, Ohio, which includes a costume contest.
  • The Woolly Worm Festival in Beattyville, Kentucky – including a human vs. woolly bear race.
  • The Woolly Worm Festival in Banner Elk, North Carolina – the caterpillar that wins the featured race predicts the upcoming winter.
  • Oil City, Pennsylvania's "Oil Valley Vick" is hoping to predict the nation's winter just like Punxatawney Phil predicts springtime.
  • Hagerstown, Maryland holds an annual contest to find the cutest and cuddliest, as well as the biggest and woolliest caterpillars.

Resources:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrrharctia_isabella

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryoprotectant

http://www.almanac.com/content/woolly-bear-caterpillars-weather-predictors

http://www.cirrusimage.com/woolly_Bear_Caterpillar.htm

http://www3.islandtelecom.com/~oehlkew/indexarc.htm

http://www.enature.com/fieldguides/detail.asp?recnum=BU0165

http://www.herald-mail.com/?cmd=displaystory&story_id=232155&format=html&autoreload=true

http://blogs.woodtv.com/files/2008/10/terri-woolly-caterpillar.jpg

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#1

Re: Woolly Bears as Winter Indicators - True or False?

11/18/2009 10:48 AM

That's funny-- I grew up hearing that if they were "woolier" if would be a more severe winter. I'm sure the logic behind that was that they would need more fur to keep them warm. I'd never heard of the length of the stripe being the determining factor. I can just envision kids chasing down woolies with a ruler, to see how many snow days they'd get from school! ^_^

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Guru
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#2
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Re: Woolly Bears as Winter Indicators - True or False?

11/18/2009 10:51 AM

Thanks for sharing that variation Mello! I had never heard of that one until now. Does anyone else have a woolly bear winter prediction story to share? Did it work?

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Guru

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#3

Re: Woolly Bears as Winter Indicators - True or False?

11/18/2009 8:02 PM

Around here the longer the mid section the longer the winter! Unless you ask the right person then its the longer the mid section the shorter the winter.

Maybe the mid section represents global warming instead? If its longer or shorter global warming may be happening or not at all?

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