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Accelerating expansion: pretty, spectacular and mainstream cosmology, but is
it still the 'best-buy'? Not necessarily, if we listen carefully to what David
Wiltshire has to say. I wrote about this in my previous Blog entry and I may
(or may not) understand Wiltshire's model a little better now. Here is my
present interpretation.

NASA's 'cosmic bell' picture(1) to the right is
obviously not to scale, but we can use the idealized visualization in an attempt to understand the differences between the standard model and Wiltshire's TimeScape
(TS) model.(2) I have 'corrupted' the picture with some annotations
for comparison (the 'apparent' and 'actual' expansion labels and the magenta/red curves). The y-axis can be interpreted
as cosmic time and the x- and z-axes as distance.
One can 'see' that the cluster areas got denser, and the voids got larger.
My wavy red curve loosely represents (the negative) gravitational potential and
hence the Einsteinian rate of local clocks, compared to a hypothetical average cosmic clock (the white 'present' surface). My dashed magenta hyperbola represents the
'standard Friedman' expansion for an open universe, with zero dark energy and
total matter energy of about 30% of the 'flat' requirement. Wiltshire argues
that this is what the actual expansion curve looks like. However it would make
the distance from us (the magenta 'galaxy') to a distant (red) 'galaxy' smaller
that what the LCDM model predicts, which is in conflict with observation. That
is unless Wiltshire is right and the slower time in the galaxies closely
compensates for that. This is exactly what he has apparently proven.(2,5)
Wilthire's TS cosmic model uses a 'two-curvature'
model, where the cluster regions are 'flat' and the voids are 'open' (negative
curvature). His best-fit calculation gives a Hubble constant of around 61.7
km/s/Mpc, which is lower than today's accepted value. But, his effective
comoving distance H0D is virtually the same as the standard model
values, as shown in his Fig 2 below.(2)


The ratio fv0 = 0.762 represents the present volume of the
voids to the total volume of observable space, i.e. 76% voids by volume. It is
interesting that the TS value corresponds closely to the standard curve (i) at
low redshift, to (ii) at medium redshift and to (iii) at high redshift, as
defined in the caption. So, which model is closer to the truth? Until more
accurate data can be obtained, nobody really knows. Wiltshire has proposed a
number of possible tests that may perhaps support (or kill) his theory.
Recently published data on a more accurate determination of the 'local
Hubble constant' (Riess et al.(3)) of 74.4±2.5 km/s/Mpc poses a
strong challenge to Wiltshire's 61.7 km/s/Mpc. Wiltshire responded as follows
in his 2011 paper:(2)
"The value of the dressed Hubble constant is also an observable
quantity of considerable interest. A recent determination of H0 by Riess et al. [55] poses a challenge for the timescape model. However, it is a feature of the timescape model that a 17-22%
variance in the apparent Hubble flow will exist on local scales below the scale of
statistical homogeneity, and this may potentially complicate calibration of the cosmic
distance ladder. Further quantification of the variance in the apparent Hubble flow in
relationship to local cosmic structures would provide an interesting possibility for tests of
the timescape cosmology for which there are no counterparts in the standard cosmology."
The determination of the Hubble constant is essentially model independent,
but, it is a complex process of taking averages of redshift and distance over
short ranges of only some 300 to 500 Mly. Closer than ~ 300 Mly, the peculiar
velocities of galaxies start to dominate the observed redshift and it becomes
too uncertain. Farther than 500 Mly, the Cepheid variable stars used as
distance yardsticks are too feint for reliable redshift measurement.(4)
Inside the said range, the cosmic structure is not homogeneous, as is demanded
by the standard Friedman model. This is Wiltshire's argument - accurate
distances and redshift (i.e. Hubble's' constant) over a range that does not
represent the cosmos at large.(5)
One may perhaps hope that he has a point and that Einstein's "biggest
blunder" (the cosmological constant, accelerating expansion) is just that
- a blunder. It should be easier to wrap one's head around an inhomogeneous
cosmos than around dark energy, despite the more difficult model. 
Jorrie
Notes
1. Image: NASA, Dark Energy, Dark Matter. The article is recent, but
has highly rounded figures for popular consumption, illustrating the principles
of dark energy and dark matter.
2. Gravitational
energy as dark energy: Cosmic structure and apparent acceleration, David L.
Wiltshire (2011). It also contains some hints for possible future tests as
support for or against his theory. Since it is a very recent paper, it contains
many references to his (and many other's) prior papers.
3. A 3% Solution:
Determination of the Hubble Constant …, Riess et al. (2010/2011).
4. I wrote a piece on the distance ladder on this Relativity-4-Engineers
page: The expanding universe: an engineer's view
5. Wiltshire: Cosmic
clocks, cosmic variance and cosmic averages (2007), page 20, last paragraph of
subsection 4:
"On account of a lack of conceptual clarity and the seductive charm
of the very simple FLRW models with which we can perform successful
calculations while avoiding fundamental issues, we have come to a historical
situation in which we misidentify quasilocal cosmological gravitational energy
with "dark energy". As bound system observers who perform
observations on other bound systems, which are in regions of locally
non-expanding space, this circumstance is an unfortunate consequence of an observer
selection effect, and failing to account for the fact that mass and volume
averages can differ drastically. If nature had provided us with observable
freely falling clocks in the depths of voids where space is locally expanding
and negatively curved then, if my thesis is correct, observations of such
clocks could well have saved us one or more decades of work in the progress of
theoretical cosmology."
Thought-provoking, don't you think?
-J
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