The Freedonia Group just released a 300+ page market study titled US HVAC

Equipment Market and Forecast

which presents historical demand data for 2004, 2009 and 2014 plus forecasts for 2019 and 2024 by fuel type, equipment type and market.

Among the analyses, observations and conclusions;

• Shipments of HVAC equipment will grow 6.0 percent per year through 2019 to $16.5 billion
• Demand for HVAC equipment is forecast to increase 6.8 percent annually through 2019 to $20.4 billion
• Imports will account for a growing share of demand for all HVAC products, exceeding 25 percent of the total in 2019
• Regulations regarding refrigerant usage and equipment efficiency will continue to have a positive effect on HVAC equipment demand
• Unitary air conditioners will continue to comprise the largest share of total HVAC system demand, accounting for 44 percent of sales by 2019
• Heat pumps and warm air furnaces will both post the fastest gains through 2019
• The nonresidential market will continue to comprise the larger share of overall HVAC equipment demand in value terms, due to the larger size of these HVAC systems
• Growth in the residential market will significantly outpace that in the nonresidential market through 2019
• Electricity is by far the leading fuel source used to power HVAC equipment. Geothermal energy will post the strongest gains of any fuel source through 2019 from a low 2014 base
• In both residential and nonresidential markets, replacement purchases will continue to account for the bulk of sales

The study (available at Fredonia Group) considers market environment factors, examines the industry structure, evaluates company market share and profiles 32 US industry competitors, including Daikin, Ingersoll- Rand, Lennox and United Technologies. A summary of the report can be viewed at Global Information Research.

Editor's Note: CR4 would like to thank GEA Consulting's President, Larry Butz,, for contributing this blog entry.