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Two Years Later, but No Leads for Doomed Flight MH370

Posted March 09, 2016 10:10 AM by HUSH
Pathfinder Tags: accident airplane drift modeling safety
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Another aerospace blog entry? Yes please.

Last week there was speculation that a mysterious airplane piece that washed up on a sandbar in the Mozambique Channel was from the doomed flight MH370. This would be notable because--if confirmed--it would be just the second recovered piece of wreckage from the plane that virtually vanished in March 2014, now two years ago.

To jog your memory: MH370 departed Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on March 8, 2014 for what was supposed to be a six hour flight to Beijing. After 45 minutes of flight time, all radio connection with the flight had ceased. Radar confirmed the plane never flew over Vietnam on its way to China; instead Malaysia military radar found the plane 200 miles northwest of Penang and nearly 400 miles off course. It seems a pilot had reversed the course of the plane and flew in the wrong direction for as long as six hours. This would be the last confirmed location for MH370, and outside of a piece of flaperon debris that washed ashore Reunion Island in July 2015, the plane has outright disappeared.

(Click map to enlarge)

Since March 31, 2014 a team of Australian, Chinese, and Malaysian searchers has been scouring 120,000² km of seafloor, and have yet to find anything. At first, the rugged underwater terrain required a bathymetric survey to be completed. Now three vessels--each towing an underwater equipment module with side-scan sonar, multi-beam echo sounders and video cameras--scour the area daily with no results yet. A fourth vessel deploys an underwater autonomous vehicle. To date they've covered nearly 75% of the search area, which to one search executive means that they'll inevitably find the wreckage sometime this year. The cost of this search stands at $148 million.

The confirmed MH370 component that washed ashore of France's Reunion Island, 2,500 miles west of the designated search area, is consistent with debris drift models. The part was a flaperon from a Boeing 777 that was confirmed to be part of MH370 after the part serial number was found with a borescope by French aviation officials. Ocean drift models predicted that about a year and half later debris would begin washing ashore along the east African coast. However only the flaperon is confirmed.

The new piece of potential wreckage is a scrap of metal with a fastener lodged in it that is part of a plane's horizontal stabilizer. It was found at the end of February by an amateur American scavenger looking for MH370 clues. There has been initial insight that the part definitely is Boeing and belongs to a 777 aircraft, but the person who found it believes the part could be too small to belong to a 777. Australia will take over analysis of the piece, which should only take a few days.

It the piece does turn out to belong to MH370? It will confirm that the plane broke apart, either on impact or in the air. There were previous reports that MH370 likely landed intact, which would explain the lack of flotsam.

No matter what, we're one day closer to resolving a dark day in airline travel.

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#1

Re: Two Years Later, but No Leads for Doomed Flight MH370

03/09/2016 12:39 PM

Seems to me that two pieces of wreckage would nullify the claim that no leads have been found.

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#2

Re: Two Years Later, but No Leads for Doomed Flight MH370

03/09/2016 1:49 PM

It is insanity to continue to spend money on the search. That $148 million would be far better used to help the families of those lost in this tragic case.

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#3

Re: Two Years Later, but No Leads for Doomed Flight MH370

03/09/2016 9:06 PM

By just looking at the ocean current graph it seems that if they find stuff in Reunion then the initial impact area is not where they say it was.

I am still of the opinion that the aircraft went down near the Seychelles. Only time will tell.

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#4
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Re: Two Years Later, but No Leads for Doomed Flight MH370

03/10/2016 4:47 AM

Seychelles? That's an interesting proposition. Why?

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Re: Two Years Later, but No Leads for Doomed Flight MH370

03/10/2016 4:59 AM

Because a plane was reported flying deep over the Maledives and would have dropped down some where there or ended further away North of Seychelles.

The flight path would be a succession of the flight path that the last radar contact indicates. Why the plane would have made a turn is not explained and only assumed from the pings they evaluated. I guess the error could be found in a lot of things particular if the height of the plane is not known.

There is some more ideas why this would be the case. If you are in the area it would be worthwhile searching shorelines, seek reports from fisherman and ask possible eye witnesses for events close to the date.

I also think that the first reports of debris from the plane show that the impact site is not what was estimated. The ocean currents might or might not have been they way they think they are.

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Re: Two Years Later, but No Leads for Doomed Flight MH370

03/10/2016 5:16 AM

OK, that's fair enough. May even prove to be be right! Personally, I'm with the satellite ping data. You're quite right to mention unknown height, a factor which widens the on the ground search area in addition to the inherent error in the pings. Debris fits either scenario although with such small data it's hardly something we can rely on.

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Re: Two Years Later, but No Leads for Doomed Flight MH370

03/11/2016 12:52 AM

Well one thing has not been answered: why there would have been another change in the flight path. This is what bothers me most. There seems was not really an assessment on why the plane was still up there and why would somebody change the flight path.

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Re: Two Years Later, but No Leads for Doomed Flight MH370

03/11/2016 4:14 AM

Well, there were several prior to the last radar contact which indicate the aircraft was under command to that point at least. The theory is that whoever was flying it chose to take it to pretty much the most remote part of the ocean there is.

Personally, I suspect the pilot waited until they were out of fuel then ditched it. Minimal debris field.

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Re: Two Years Later, but No Leads for Doomed Flight MH370

03/13/2016 11:56 PM

I think the plane would have ditched anyway if it was out of fuel! Nothing tells us the pilot was still alive by the time the plane ditched.

But I fully agree that there might have been a reason to send the plane to a remote part of the ocean!

What for example would a pilot do that has a load of dead people in the back? Would they return to an airport or veer off to never be found again?

We might never know!

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#9

Re: Two Years Later, but No Leads for Doomed Flight MH370

03/12/2016 7:24 AM

I wonder if expert analysis of the part(s) and their damage, tear lines, deformed rivet holes, etc. has suggested how the plane entered the water. Depending upon many factors a very few critical parts could suggest a proper ditching procedure (minimal damage) vs. ran out of fuel while on auto pilot vs. started high and did a "yard dart" (max damage).

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Re: Two Years Later, but No Leads for Doomed Flight MH370

03/13/2016 11:57 PM

Good question. If they find enough debris they could maybe tell. It at least would give a better picture of what happend.

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Re: Two Years Later, but No Leads for Doomed Flight MH370

03/14/2016 6:33 AM

Yep, definitely. My pretty uninformed (but not completely, I have some flying qualifications) view is that a flaperon is exactly the sort of thing that would come off under pretty much any scenario whereas the absence of floating seat cushions suggest an intact fuselage, ergo a ditching.

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