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On Saturday, May 3, 2008 approximately 20 three-year-old thoroughbreds will run for the roses. Yes, it's time for the 134th Kentucky Derby. (There's coverage on ESPN all day, but post time on NBC is at 6:00 PM ET). Now that so many tracks have synthetic surfaces, it's more and more difficult to handicap "regular" horse races, let alone one as big as the Derby.
Will the horse handle the dirt as well as the synthetic? Although many race tracks have used synthetic surfaces for some time now, that's still a question that racing regulars hear handicappers discuss, especially at this time of year. One of the last big Derby preps is held at the Keenland Racecourse, which replaced its natural surface with Polytrack in 2006. According to Polytrack's web site, the proprietary synthetic surface is "a unique formula comprised of polypropylene fibers, recycled rubber and silica sand covered in a wax coating". It provides a more uniform surface, too.
What keeps the handicappers guessing is that a few weeks after Keenland, the horses make the switch back to a conventional dirt track at Churchill Downs for the right to run for the roses in the Kentucky Derby. Often, a horse that shows great athletic ability on a synthetic surface will struggle on a traditional track. There are also some horses that run great on grass (known in racing terms as the "turf") but are duds on dirt. Then there are the all-around athletes (like John Henry in the image above), horses who can run fast on any type of surface. So which horse should you bet on?
Handicapping is best done with a system. Even novice bettors can break-even or win at the track by sticking with one method throughout the day. Still, seasoned bettors know to revise the usual questions that they consider while flipping through the past performance program or Daily Racing Form. With regard to racetrack surfaces, there are many things to think about while choosing a potential winner or tackling a trifecta. For example, has the horse run on a synthetic track before? If so, what kind? How do the results compare to the horse's performance on other surfaces? What about factors such as distance and time?
These are traditional questions that a serious handicapper must consider when comparing dirt to turf. Now, however, handicappers must also compare a horse's performance on Polytrack to that on other synthetic surfaces. There's also the matter of whether the horse seems to prefer dirt or synthetic material. A seasoned handicapper must also consider how well a horse performs when the next race is on a different type of surface. Does the horse do well coming off a synthetic surface and then running on dirt, or vice versa?
Always, there are more questions than answers. Does breeding play a role in a horse's ability to adapt to a race track's surface? Some racing experts claim that genetics plays a role in a horse's ability to run well on the turf or at a particular distance. But what about on synthetic surfaces? In coming years, we may be able to tell. For now, however, synthetic surfaces are so new that I don't think we really know. What do you think?
Last week we learned that California tracks made synthetic surfaces mandatory by the end of 2007 in Part 4. Next week in Part 6 I'll list some potential impacts on equine health.
Resources:
http://www.polytrack.com/
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/
Animal Science Blog
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Re: Natural vs. Synthetic Surfaces: How to Handicap a Horse Race (Part 5)
