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The Economy – Growth or Gasps?

Posted January 01, 2009 8:22 AM

Articles throughout the press this month demonstrate that despite larger economic downturns, growth in the chemicals industry remains consistent. In some cases, growth has been accelerating. The graying of the profession, the expansion of the chemicals industry and increased demand for employees in foreign markets all appear to be contributing to the current stability in employment. With the current economy globally, is your company hiring employees or downsizing? Do you see increased opportunities for career advancement, or is the negative economic news affecting your workplace?

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Re: The Economy – Growth or Gasps?

01/05/2009 11:15 PM

I think there is a large structural difference between the 30's style recession and the 80's style and 2009.

We have progressively shortened inventory cycles, most recently the intense use of the just-in-time philosophy. In the 30's with slow freight and large warehouses, many companies could go 6 months or more with little new inventory, for the most part. This exacerbated any downturn.

Now we have very fast freight and small inventory depth = many inventory cycles per year. Since a recession is 10-20% less production, I think that this just in time inventory process will pull us out of the recseeion in the first quarter.

I already see metals like copper, Nickel and zinc bouncing off their boom and metals inventories dropping.

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