Try Try Again

I respect tenacity. I also see an advantage to recovering fueled rockets at sea. Vertical landing onto a barge using only engine thrust is tricky with a Harrier that carries the pilot.

Then there's that pesky definition of insanity that Einstein made.

the contract SpaceX has with Uncle Sam requires a successful return landing at sea before they'll allow a landing attempt on ground. falling rockets can be messy so they prefer it over water. I know work has been done to refine the guidance package for landings but I didn't locate specifics.

Thanks. That brings an added wrinkle I was not aware of or that I forgot. It does make some sense to set the R&D milestone goals higher than the routine goals. I just hope that these goals aren't set so high they stifle progress.

Aha, now there's a piece of the puzzle I did not have before.

The final plan is landing the boosters on solid ground, most likely at the same facility that launched them, to reduce recovery and transportation costs.

The landing on a barge scenario is a test goal, as crashes at sea 'clean themselves up,' by sinking into the water. (Not really ecologically friendly to dump refined rocket fuel into the ocean, but I understand the point of 'no people or property to damage for hundreds of miles,' in case the landing goes FUBAR and turns into a 'meteor simulation,' like we had with the decommissioning of the old Skylab station⁽¹⁾.)

Once he proves he can land successfully on a barge, THEN they'll let him test landings on solid ground.

Notes:

1. I know, Skylab wasn't a FUBAR 'meteor simulation' landing, it was a 'mostly controlled' reentry which was intended to break apart, burn up, and/or splash in the Pacific, but it's the most famous example of the landing style I can think of, and even with Skylab, the scientists were making their best guesses about the landing, and Vegas was taking odds⁽²⁾.
2. Then again Vegas takes odds on ANYTHING and EVERYTHING. I remember some ideas a few years back about tapping into the Vegas bookmakers to try and predict things like stock market crashes and 'international incidents' (terrorism and acts of war) since the bookmaking community there is highly skilled and very experienced. They've got people looking at all sorts of data and trends, so they can produce the most accurate odds charts on everything from a horse race to a boxing event to next week's weather⁽³⁾. No matter what the event, once you look at all the bets taken in and paid out, the House always wins (makes a profit).
3. And it seems the bookies have better accuracy than the meteorologists.
   

If you have enough money, anything is possible.

if the landing is a success this time an attempt will be made to set down at Vandenberg AF Base on the next flight....assuming the FAA and Air Force agree

so tomorrow is a big day!

Why the talk about the landing ? Don't you have to first make it to outer space ? On the other hand, as long as the second part never happens, folks will still have a job on Monday.

Tony, have you ever taken a Martial Arts class? The first thing you are taught is not how to punch, kick, or throw. The first thing they teach is how to FALL DOWN, and fall down safely.

First learn to stick the landing, THEN we'll see how high we can make this pogo bounce, now that we know we won't be killing people with every test.