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Interesting Study, More Electricity Please!

07/31/2018 12:30 PM

36 Million EVs could hit UK roads

The National Grid has said that up to 36 million electric vehicles (EVs) could be on the roads of the UK by 2040.

That figure is more than double the estimate given by the organisation last year of 17 million, and comes as a result of new policies that have been implemented to encourage the uptake of EVs – including electric vans and lorries as well as cars.

The National Grid last year suggested that the rising popularity of electric vehicles between now and 2050 could mean it eventually having to deliver an extra 30 gigawatts of power at times of peak demand.

That’s 50 per cent more than the Grid has to supply when demand is at its height now – but did assume a worst-case scenario in which no EV owners use smart chargers, which replenish their vehicles at off-peak times.

The National Grid now believes that smart chargers will in fact be used and that some EV batteries will supply power back to the grid at peak times.

So while it says more electric cars will be hitting the highways and byways of the UK, it now predicts the likely impact on the its operations will be smaller – with peak-time demand likely to increase by ‘only’ 12.7 gigawatts by 2050.

Latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) and other industry organisations show that more and more EVs are coming into the market as new vehicles and working their way into the used market.

Motors.co.uk has a dedicated EV section where you can find out the answers to any questions you may have about the next generation of vehicles, as well as find out which ones are the best and how you should buy them

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#1

Re: Interesting Study, More Electricity Please!

07/31/2018 3:09 PM

They should be more concentrated on how they plan to produce more electricity while reducing greenhouse gas emissions, instead of making wide eyed claims of EV proclivity based on dubious meandering speculation....

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#7
In reply to #1

Re: Interesting Study, More Electricity Please!

08/01/2018 7:37 AM

This is the UK government we are talking about. Asking them to concentrate on anything suggests that they are capable of rational thought. Living in the Uk I am not sure about that. They are increasing generating capacity but not logically. They have given approval for Hinkley Point C nuclear power station at a guaranteed strike price of £92.50/MWh but are procrastinating over approvals for the Swansea (strike price £89.9/MWh( and Cardiff (strike price £70/80/MWh) tidal barrage schemes. Adding a tidal barrage across Morecambe Bay would slash the unit cost of the turbines, distribute the peak capacity (high tide at Morecambe is 4.3 hours later than Cardiff), and meet all our greenhouse gas commitments, with major infrastructure projects in areas of high unemployment. Producing tidal turbines in the UK would create expertise in a new high tech industry with worldwide export potential into a growth sector. Hinkley is utilising imported technology. Our government sees little beyond the next election and returning to power. The idea that they are elected to promote the long term economy does not seem to have occurred to them.

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#2

Re: Interesting Study, More Electricity Please!

07/31/2018 4:43 PM

"Electric cars are rising in popularity across the UK. With the sale of diesel and petrol vehicles being banned by the government from 2040, more and more manufacturers – such as Volvo and Volkswagen – are prioritising production of electric or hybrid models in the coming years. Here’s everything you need to know about the electrification revolution."

https://www.motors.co.uk/electric-cars/

I can see how electric cars will become more popular if the governments ban non-electric cars in 2040.

If the grid is not upgraded to supply the additional load that will be created by government fiat, the day may come when you can't go on a trip due to power shortage, can't run the A/C due to too many people on the road, or you may be stranded somewhere because charging stations can't get enough power. They may be creating more problems than they are solving.

I would much rather have access to the energy stored in a tank of gasoline that I can depend on than hoping that the electric grid will supply it. Taking away this choice is unwise, IMHO. Just sayin'...

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#5
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Re: Interesting Study, More Electricity Please!

07/31/2018 10:58 PM

They are not going to have to ban IC vehicles, you only have to drive an electric car to see the end game.

We have Nissan Leaf and it is great. The much lower running costs are a bonus and weren't the impetus to buy.

I used to ponder the wast of braking downhill, now I can see the battery recharging.

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#11
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Re: Interesting Study, More Electricity Please!

08/01/2018 12:11 PM

One size doesn't necessarily fit all . . . .

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#14
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Re: Interesting Study, More Electricity Please!

08/02/2018 5:20 PM

"...weren't the impetus to buy..." Of course not, the impetus to buy was the $7,500 Federal Tax Credit, as much $5,000 state credits, plus any local/dealer incentives, all of which were rolled into lowering the lease rate by approximately 27%.

Since you're leasing, you probably won't be worried about replacing the battery, but it ain't cheap! Here's one owner's experience:

"...Nissan will finance up to $5,500 for 12 to 60 months. The 2011 battery requires a few additional parts to fit the new 24-kwh pack, and the old battery must be returned to Nissan.

My costs were (plus sales tax):

  • Battery $5,499.00
  • Parts 290.40
  • Labor 375.00
  • Finance 100.00

The dealer is not allowed to mark up or profit in any way from the battery replacement, and the labor charge is fixed at 3 hours. I paid State of Washington sales tax and financed the $5,500 cost for three years at $150 per month (at a 3.09% APR)..." Read more here.

It is interesting to note the $150/mo battery replacement expense. The author of the article expects to get another 100,000 miles on his Leaf, and estimates it will only cost him 0.13$/mi. Hmmm, my Cruze consistently gets 52mpg highway and 41mpg combined. at 2.75$/gal, that's about $0.061$/mi. Since I'm only replacing the oil and filter (not the entire engine!), i have to include another 0.006$/mi, making my running cost at 0.067$/mi.

He averaged about 3.75mi/kWh over the life of the battery pack. During that period the national price of gasoline varied by nearly a dollar, with an average of about $3/gal. Electricity costs also varied but averaged about 0.09$/Kwhr, so his "fuel" cost was about 0.024$/mi.

To be fair, we have to compare apples to apples so let's look at the costs amortized over 200,000 miles. He spends approximately $4,800 for electricity plus $6,750 for a battery pack, or $11,550, an average of $0.058/mi. But if he wants to go 200,001 miles he has to purchase yet another battery pack which raises his cost to $0.188/mi, while I keep going at 7cents per mile!

NB- this not a detailed economic analysis; no tax/dealer incentives, inflation, depriciation, cost changes/variations, major drivetrain breakdowns, declines/differences in efficiency, driving habits, environmental/pollution/healthcare costs, etc., etc., are included.

As it says on the sticker, "Your mileage may vary"

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#15
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Re: Interesting Study, More Electricity Please!

08/02/2018 10:12 PM

All true and a GA. However, I still give kudos to Nissan for making an all electric commuter vehicle that closely rivals the economic costs of many vehicles.

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#3

Re: Interesting Study, More Electricity Please!

07/31/2018 9:39 PM

Unfortunately, those of us who can show via simple math how the grid cannot deliver on the promises that others are making for it, are accused of being anti-environment. It seems that nobody remembers the impacts when communication and energy utilities were deregulated, and other situations where the Law of Unintended Consequences repeatedly demonstrated Uh-Oh moments.

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#10
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Re: Interesting Study, More Electricity Please!

08/01/2018 11:14 AM

The infrastructure of today's technology has never been able to supply tomorrows demands. It has always been that way. At one time the Erie canal was the solution to faster commerce traffic. Now it's mostly a tourist novelty.

Yes, the deficiencies of today's infrastructure must be improved to meet tomorrows demands including that this new infrastructure will need yet to be conceived innovations to mitigate yet to be noticed problems. This is how progress happens.

Just to be clear, I agree with you RAM, 100%.

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#4

Re: Interesting Study, More Electricity Please!

07/31/2018 10:54 PM

Robbing Peter to pay Paul means somebody can't do HONEST bookkeeping.

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#6

Re: Interesting Study, More Electricity Please!

08/01/2018 3:32 AM

You only have to look at how much electricity the UK has to import at the moment to see how impractical the push for EV’s is.

http://gridwatch.co.uk/

Even CCGT’s rely on imported gas from politically unstable countries.

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#8

Re: Interesting Study, More Electricity Please!

08/01/2018 8:29 AM

Sounds like a good argument for personal solar systems. I have a friend in California that has a solar powered house and drives a Volt. Hasn't paid a cent for fuel in his car for a year. He had to run the tank dry only because the fuel was getting "stale"!

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#9
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Re: Interesting Study, More Electricity Please!

08/01/2018 10:47 AM

Solar power available in UK vs Calif is not equal....Although he may not be paying a lot now for gasoline, I'm thinking he paid a lot, up front, for that privilege...and is now typically smug about it....A $100,000 in solar glitz will take your petrol powered vehicle to the Moon I think....

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Average-daily-annual-sunshine-hours-and-converted-solar-irradiance-over-the-baseline-time_fig6_263318433

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_the_United_Kingdom

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#13
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Re: Interesting Study, More Electricity Please!

08/02/2018 3:21 PM

Unfortunately, the "solar glitz" is on the backs of every other taxpayer, both Federal and State, in the form of outright grants, ITCs, tax credits, etc., etc. Of course they're available to everyone, but those who can't qualify or afford such systems still have to pay incrementally more taxes instead of getting any monetary benefit, kind of robbing from the poor to pay for the rich (Where's Robin Hood when we need him?).

Check out Go Solar California's website.

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#16
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Re: Interesting Study, More Electricity Please!

08/02/2018 10:59 PM

The UK has a huge and expanding investment in offshore windfarms.

The sun may not be that bright there but the solar energy is still tapable (if that is a word).

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#12

Re: Interesting Study, More Electricity Please!

08/02/2018 1:26 PM

The stopping of sales of new IC vehicles in over 20 years time allows companies to focus on gradual change to meet the new criteria.

It is not unreasonable to expect power companies to change their investment into forms of renewable power: wind, solar PV, wave, tidal, etc will all have a niche and improved efficiencies will allow this to take place without major issues over the next 30 - 40 years when the majority of IC vehicles come to the end of their life.

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#17
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Re: Interesting Study, More Electricity Please!

08/05/2018 1:22 PM

Renewable energy is growing around 8,300 GWh per year and is currently at 83,255 GWh or 30% of the total generation in the UK...as of 2016....If this growth rate continues for another 20 years that will triple current renewable source output to about 250k GWh or 90% of the total demand....So the numbers work without any growth accounted for in demand...and any consideration of how much money this will cost...but, and of course there is a but, demand will increase dramatically, because, that's right, the car batteries need to be charged....So it's possible that they will still only be producing 30% of the demand by renewable sources...That then means a 100% growth in non-renewable generation source demand...I shudder to think what the $$$ investment figures look like...We need more clarity here....

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