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Coronavirus and Logic

04/24/2020 1:45 AM

I have a question regarding Corona Virus and following the "rules".

These are the facts I want to use. If I'm missing something, please let me know.

1. Wearing a mask helps keep me from spreading the virus to others if I cough or sneeze.

2. Wearing a mask helps keep me from touching my face and mucus membranes.

3. The virus enters the body at the mucus membranes. It will not penetrate skin.

4. If someone isn't coughing or sneezing, the only way for them to transmit the virus to me is by direct touch or indirect transfer by touching something they touched (or sneezed/coughed on).

5. The 6 foot rule is so people can keep from directly transferring the virus either by touch or cough or sneeze.

6. Wearing a mask will not keep the virus away, unless it's a properly fitted N95 or better mask.

7. A sneeze can send droplets 15 feet or more.

Based on the above, I've made a few conclusions. Here's what I've come up with and why.

1. The 6 foot rule shouldn't apply if people aren't sneezing/coughing. I don't have to walk in the street to keep my 6 foot distance when passing someone on the sidewalk. Why? Unless a person is sneezing or coughing, they won't transfer the virus to others unless they touch someone. So keeping a distance so others don't touch you makes sense, not 6 feet.

2. If someone is sneezing or coughing, keep as far away as possible and more than 6 feet. If indoors, keep even further away, because there's no wind to dissipate the droplets. Why? Just because there's a 6 foot rule, it doesn't mean that's a safe distance if someone without a mask is coughing or sneezing.

3. Being in public without a mask while I avoid putting my hands on my face is only dangerous to me if someone is or has just recently been sneezing or coughing. Why? As long as I am careful about touching my face, there's no way for the virus to reach my mucus membranes.

4. Washing my hands with warm soapy water or using sanitizer is the most important thing if I'm in the public. Why? As long as I'm practicing the first three above, then the only way for the virus to enter my body is from me touching a mucus membrane.

Right now, there's some advice/rules that don't make sense. Sure, they're being extra cautious, but is the trade off a good one if people are becoming paranoid?

What do you guys think?

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#1

Re: Corona Virus and logic

04/24/2020 2:15 AM

I think everyone here knows that I'm all for my four conclusions. Yes, I am biased and I think the OP makes perfect sense.

Your turn!

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#2

Re: Corona Virus and logic

04/24/2020 2:18 AM

Breathing and talking can spread the virus....You must assume all surfaces in a public place are contaminated....You must assume everybody you see is a carrier and contaminated...Aerosols can travel hundreds of feet in a light wind...a mask doesn't cover your eyes, and doesn't block air 100%, so not foolproof protection...unless it is a full facemask with filtered air supply....You need to assume you will come into contact with the virus at some point in time and give yourself the most advantage by bolstering your immune system...If you have a compromised immune system or underlying medical conditions and are over 65, you should not go out into public area's without advanced protection....

Start at 1:40 if you like....

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#3
In reply to #2

Re: Corona Virus and logic

04/24/2020 2:42 AM

Hi Solar,

Excellent advice. All this time, nobody ever mentioned that the eyes are not covered with a mask - at least the type we're using now. Fantastic!

I like your statement that we should assume that we'll come in contact with the virus. And your solution of how to protect ourselves is huge. Build your immunity - that's what I feel is important.

I'm not sure, but I have a feeling we've had Covid 19 in our house. My better half got pretty sick in January. Shortly after (Feb timeframe), I had a couple times when I felt like I was catching something. I loaded up on vitamin C - I did vitamin C saturation, then went to bed early. I slept all night and woke up feeling healthy. For about a month, I had an odd sore throat, but it wasn't in my throat, it was way back in my mouth. Sort of at the top of my mouth, way, way back. It may sound crazy, but when I get a flu, I feel the virus leaving my body. Many times, when I wake up in the morning, my eyes have that hard stuff. Also, right at the end, my fingertips get hard - like my skin isn't repairing itself properly - or the virus is leaving. About 3-4 weeks ago, that odd sore throat stopped and my eyes had that crusty stuff in the morning. Then a couple weeks ago, my fingertips got hard.

I would like to be tested, but I don't want to take a test from someone who may really need it. If I do hear about extra tests being given, I'm going to give it a try.

Thanks for sharing - that's a great video!

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#4

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/24/2020 4:26 PM

Back at beginning of March I came down with a cough, then I was in bed for 4 days. On day 3, my wife took me to my doctor who tested me for flu types A & B, I had neither. When I asked about testing for the COVID-19 virus, my doctor told me he couldn't do that. I'm not old enough, nor do I have compromised health, so I was not likely to die, so no test for COVID-19.

I routinely open packages from China with prototype circuit boards tightly packed in double bags. I am also fairly certain what I had fits the symptoms of coronavirus. The fact that we only confirm cases of this disease in the people most likely to suffer the most, skews the mortality rate of the disease.

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#5
In reply to #4

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/24/2020 4:47 PM

We'll learn what the mortality rate really is after everyone develops the anti-bodies.

Yes, people do their figuring with the information that they have, incomplete as it is. Many would rather err on the side of caution, but there needs to be a balance.

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#6
In reply to #5

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/24/2020 11:22 PM

This, how sad it may sound, is a correct statement - many more deaths to go - unfortunately.

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#7
In reply to #6

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/25/2020 12:52 AM

Just to add some perspective, there are nearly 3 million deaths in the US every year...if we get to 100k deaths from the virus that would be about 3% of all deaths.....we are currently at about 50k...

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/282929

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#14
In reply to #7

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/25/2020 2:03 PM

Hi Solar,

Thanks for the data. We sometimes lose perspective when the media is blasting us with doom and gloom.

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#30
In reply to #7

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

05/03/2020 9:09 AM

And over 200K of those are due to medical malpractice / misdiagnosis.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/22/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-america.html

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#31
In reply to #7

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

05/03/2020 9:28 AM

And over 200,000 of those are due to medical malpractice/negligence.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/22/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-america.html

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#15
In reply to #6

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/25/2020 2:10 PM

Yes, it is sad.

Even if we don't have another new case, there are many who are in hospitals that will pass.

I saw a list of the people who passed from CV in Georgia and it's a long list. The data does show that the vast majority are in their 60's and up. And there's a large number in their 50's. I think it's prudent for the people who are at high risk to be extra safe.

Based on the new data from New York and Los Angeles, there are many who have the antibody. My assumption is that they've contacted the virus and their bodies have fought it off. The amazing thing is that many of these people have stated that they had either zero or very little symptoms.

The data also shows that the lung damage from smoking is a big factor. Not to beat up smokers, but we have been told for many years that smoking is bad for our health. If one chooses to include that in his lifestyle, there are repercussions. Smokers will just have to be more careful in these times.

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#32
In reply to #15

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

05/03/2020 10:12 PM

If we were to continue at the current rate of infections, averaging @30k new cases per day, the time to infect 150 million people, roughly half the population, would take around 14 years....

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#8
In reply to #5

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/25/2020 1:06 AM

There is no proof that humans develop antibodies and immunity to Coronavirus. There is no proof of herd immunity (only assumptions)...

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#9
In reply to #8

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/25/2020 3:12 AM

Unfortunately assumptions is all we have to go on....Educated guesses have led us through many a battle to ultimate victory....we do the best we can with what we have to work with....and hope for the best...sometimes that is the only way to succeed...

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#17
In reply to #9

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/25/2020 2:32 PM

If we look at this like a battle in war, it can be agreed that we never know the outcome. However, we do as you say; we take educated guesses, do the best we can and hope for the best.

I think this is how we also live our lives. There is no path for us to follow, which can be proven to guarantee our survival, whether it be for a day, a week, a month, a year or decades. Some people smoke 3 packs of cigarettes a day and live to be 90. Some drink to excess daily and live a long life. Some who run 5 miles every other day wind up dead before 50. What we do is set our path by choosing actions that reduce our risks - all within reason. I choose to jump in my car and drive to work - there's a risk in that, but it's a small one and the benefits outweigh the risk. I choose to be as active as I can, which also has a risk, but the benefits outweigh the risk. I also choose to drink a beer or have some wine - risk and benefit too.

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#22
In reply to #9

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/26/2020 7:46 AM

Here is a report on the herd immunity by the organisation that represents global health knowledge of 190 countries....

https://citizen.co.za/news/news-world/2275113/who-warns-over-virus-immunity-as-global-death-toll-tops-200000/

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#16
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Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/25/2020 2:23 PM

Thanks for the comment.

You're correct that there is no proof. What we do have is based on previous virus infections and how our body fights them off. Our bodies create antibodies which block "things" that attack our cells. It's how we defend against invaders, whether they're living or not.

So, at this point, it's the best we have. And chances are that it'll be correct.

One other point, the new data shows that CV was in Santa Clara county weeks earlier than previously thought. Using logic, it makes sense, since the most used point of access to the US from China is the west coast. From here, it could easily spread throughout the country as people transfer planes and bring CV with them.

We need to also note that there is no proof that shutting down the way we have will stop CV from spreading. Here in Los Angeles, we still have many people working their normal jobs, going to stores (groceries, auto parts, hardware, dry cleaners, etc), getting gas, getting their car repaired, going to the post office, Fed Ex or UPS and many are ignoring the social distancing rules and visit their friends and relatives. It's also in human nature to be social and people are having a hard time isolating ourselves for this long.

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#13
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Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/25/2020 2:01 PM

On Thursday, the city of Huntington Beach and Newport Beach opened up the beaches. On Friday, Ventura was open. Today, San Clemente is opening their beaches. Officials are recommending social distancing.

Here's Newport Beach yesterday as 30-40,000 estimated were on the beach. The picture is taken on the peninsula - I'm not sure where people parked, because the city said that the parking lots are still closed.

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#12
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Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/25/2020 1:50 PM

Way back when this thing started, I had a concern that we would get CV from packages coming from China. I was told that we wouldn't, because the virus will not survive on a surface that long. Then we hear stories about the virus surviving for weeks - I think we just don't know at this point.

Thanks for sharing!

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#25
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Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/28/2020 9:40 PM

The surface swab looks for traces of the RNA of the virus. This would only confirm that the virus was once present, but not if it was still in a good shape or contagious or alife, if you want to use that word.

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#10

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/25/2020 6:06 AM

I've always been socially distant and don't mind being distantly social.

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#18
In reply to #10

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/25/2020 2:33 PM

Sometimes my brain is distant from the world!!!

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#11

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/25/2020 6:13 AM

...it might be in the food we eat....

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#19
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Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/25/2020 2:39 PM

Could definitely bring it home in your groceries - fresh produce, on the packages (some who has CV touched it) or on your hands and now it's on your food.

And it could be on the food you get from your local restaurant or at the drive thru window.

That's why it's good to be cautious. I believe I've had CV, but I can't get an antibody test - we called Kaiser the other day and they won't approve it. So, I'm going to err on the side of caution and continue washing my hands and practice social distancing.

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#20

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/25/2020 2:53 PM

I find it very interesting how we have different views on this. I don't know if it stems from the media source we choose to follow or if it's how we process information and we then choose the source of information.

One of those, which came first questions!

I've always been interested in how our minds work and why we choose the side we're on. I will admit that at first, I was on the side of "do everything and quarantine everyone". This was based on the initial mainstream media I was watching. Then I started reading things from places like here, I did my research and I spoke to people to get their feeling/thought. Now I'm convinced that we should be careful, but the damage from shut downs is going to be huge and the risk/reward is ... well I believe it's been a mistake and we over reacted. Something that the media always tries to do when there's a story. The irony is that the media is killing it's source of income - advertising. They scare everyone, we shut down the economy and the businesses can't afford to advertise (either decrease or completely cancel) so their ad rates go down.

Just my 2 cents - stepping off the soapbox!

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#21
In reply to #20

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/25/2020 3:54 PM

Good point. I have noticed what seems to be people choosing their facts based on the conclusion they want to reach. ie I want to go out, so I'll believe the Corona Virus situation is not so serious. The problem is, the belief that the situation is not so serious drives other, potentially foolish, behavior.

It is important to be realistic about the risks and to be realistic about what you NEED to do. If you really need to go out, do so. But don't minimize the risks to justify your decision.

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#38
In reply to #21

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

05/15/2020 4:32 AM

I've seen the same thing. People just want to get out, so they take risks they shouldn't.

On the other hand, others feel that taking any risk is wrong and not one additional life should be lost.

Since we still don't know enough about CV, who's to say which one is right?

The initial plan was to stay at home to flatten the curve. Initially, we needed to flatten the curve, to allow the health care system to keep from being overwhelmed. The curve is flat and in most places it's on the way down - the goal has been reached. If we cautiously re-open businesses, we'll put people at risk - it's just part of having a virus in our population. If things start to ramp up again, then we'll have to slow things down - again, to keep the health care system from being overwhelmed.

Someone made an interesting point to me the other day. He asked me if I drive a car. Of course I do. He asked me if there's potential danger in driving. Yes, of course. The danger could be so high that I'm putting my life at risk? Yes, but unlikely. Still, there's a risk? Yes. So, I could stay at home and dramatically reduce my risk of dying from a car accident, correct? Yes, but it doesn't work like that with something like CV. Or does it? How can we judge this, if we don't have accurate data. We have no clue how many people have had CV and they were asymptomatic. Or had a mild reaction. Or maybe they got sick, but they didn't have to go to the hospital. And of the dead, how many were going to die from other illnesses?

Data shows that deaths from heart attacks is down substantially. Does that mean CV heals the heart? Or are we blaming CV for those who died of a heart failure?

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#41
In reply to #21

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

05/15/2020 10:05 PM

People blithely climb into their cars every day with nary a thought of the 30,000 plus people in the U.S. that die in automobile accidents every year. Think of how many lives would have been saved if no one was allowed to drive?

If you said that you can drive but only for essential travel only . . .

No one should be allowed to take a Sunday drive to enjoy the countryside.

We take risks. There is a risk that we won't wake up the next morning, but we still go to bed.

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#42
In reply to #41

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

05/22/2020 1:15 AM

Agreed!

Don't go to sleep or else ...

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#29
In reply to #20

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

05/02/2020 2:30 AM

Definitely an interesting question. Presumably, if we all think and behave the same way life would be boring.

Don't forget that choice of media to follow says a lot about our predispositions, the way we are thinking, the way we were brought up, the community we are from, culture, ethnicity etc. There is definitely a mainstream media which is identified by the number of subscribers, followers etc., presumably backed by the approval of opinions expressed in such media by the general public (sheep?). The fact that such media is shooting itself in the foot (financially) should be a testament to the intentions of saving lives rather than making a profit? The views expressed in such media is the view of the pandemic as classified by the WHO. Let's not forget that WHO was formed in 1948 (with USA as one of the founders) and has 194 member states, trying now to discredit it as the enemy of the state (USA) and fried of China is very unfortunate and opportunistic. We are playing politics in the health field when we can least afford to do it. Instead of following the example of global health professionals that have been planning for this event for +70 years is not helping anyone. I assume that time will tell who is right and who is wrong, we must just not forget that this judgment will come after the loss of many, many lives that could be prevented. Regarding the economy and the growth/recession, the global economies are so integrated that projected recession in the rest of the world cannot bypass the USA. If the global economy shrinks by 6%, at best, the USA economy will shrink at 5%. Is 1% of GDP worth the additional loss of life? Risk/Reward? Let's ask all the people over 60, with a health condition, asthma, lung diseases, cancer, hypertension etc. I'm sure that there are millions of people in the high-risk category that will tell you that playing god and gambling with lives is not a good idea.

I have been always asking myself, why are clever people doing stupid things? I'm sure that science should be more respected than the "hunch" or opinion of a lame man? The answer to the first question has always been the impact of emotions. When logic goes out of the door and emotions start ruling the world, we are in trouble.

By the way, views of some USA citizens (minority/majority?) are not unique, Sweden is often compared with USA in it's response to coronavirus.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/may/01/sweden-coronavirus-strategy-nationalists-britain?fbclid=IwAR0dbIOxhJItgNsAa1OtPBeb5U5Fo48EaFSKHYaRMhhk6ivHH-wxoWFmx7Y

Just my 2 cents worth, while jumping on the top of the soapbox.

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#40
In reply to #29

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

05/15/2020 5:40 AM

I appreciate your thoughts on this. I find it very interesting to see how people from different parts of the world see things.

Here's something that'll bring things into perspective.

1. LA County has 10M residents.

2. A total of 1,700 people have died of CV or complications from it.

3. Last year, 10,000 people died in the same period.

4. As of May 1, 92% of the people who died from CV had a pre-existing condition.

5. 136 healthy people died from CV

136 out of 10,000,000 residents in the county. And healthy people are scared out of their minds, because the media has them believing that there's a 2-4% mortality rate if you get CV.

Right before my eyes, I'm watching some really great people lose everything they've worked for. Their businesses are going under and they just sit and watch.

LA County is expected to reach 32% unemployment this month.

LA County is going to remain on a stay at home order until at least the end of July. It's been two months and we're adding another three. They're going to kill the small and medium sized businesses. When it's time to go back to work, only the largest corporations will remain and the number of jobs will be down drastically.

The state of California is expecting a $54,000,000,000 deficit in the next 12 months. That number was estimated before the July shut down. Add three months of virtually no business and it could rise to $70,000,000,000.

I don't see this as trading dollars for lives. I do see it as honoring an agreement. When the CV issue started and LA County decided to issue the stay at home mandate, they told us it was so we could flatten the curve. People are going to die from CV, but at least the hospitals won't be overwhelmed, so we'll have every chance of saving the ones we can. Our hospitals never reached capacity. We flattened the curve - congratulations to us. We all did our part and now it's time to open things up and just make sure the curve stays flat - we have enough medical capacity to handle the sick. But THEY changed the rules. Now it's about saving every life. We can save everyone and we won't re-open things until it's completely safe. No new cases = safe. Ain't gonna happen for a while, so I'm going to sadly watch my neighbors, friends and vendors go out of business. They're going to lose everything - all because some 136 healthy people have died from CV. On a normal day in LA County 166 people die.

I am very upset about this and I'm seriously thinking of selling all my properties in LA County and moving to my condo in Orange County. It's better than watching the values plummet and my retirement go down the drain.

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#23

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/27/2020 4:58 PM

https://www.facebook.com/yolanda.boyd.77/videos/10222241139326816/?t=1

Contains most of the wit and wisdom of the current scientific and political message.

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#24
In reply to #23

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

04/27/2020 8:52 PM

This all boils down to, do whatever you want, unless somebody stops you, then try to convince them that it is essential...

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#26

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

05/01/2020 2:26 PM

Drink 1/2 teaspoon of baking soda mixed with 8oz glass of water each day and no virus would live in your system.

A high PH level is the key to fight most diseases.

Baking kills all virus, it's not rocket science.

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#27
In reply to #26

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

05/01/2020 6:51 PM

Is this supported by any medical studies?

Certainly, it doesn't seem like it would hurt anything but . . . .

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#28
In reply to #26

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

05/01/2020 6:58 PM
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#33
In reply to #28

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

05/03/2020 10:54 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSyrA5pHyrE

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#34
In reply to #33

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

05/04/2020 12:01 AM

...."There has been speculation on social media that the number of COVID-19 deaths is being intentionally inflated. But Dr. Aiken said it is more likely that COVID-19 deaths are actually being undercounted because of lack of testing."...

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/verify/verify-conspiracy-that-covid-19-deaths-are-being-inflated-doesnt-add-up/507-41f555ea-c051-423d-8f06-209d34aa5636

adinfinitum

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#35

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

05/04/2020 1:45 PM

Concerning the "curves" that are being used to influence behavior, were you aware that the area under the curves, no matter what the peak, have the same area. In other words, the total number of infections is constant and the only question is how high the peak is and when it will occur. To avoid infection, you have to be 100% vigilant at all times and lapses will eventually lead to an infection.

The suggested guidance is intended solely to fit the curve peak to available hospital beds, ventilators and availability of scarce PPE. I once took a caregiver course where the recommended action for a dementia patient was to tell them whatever would make them happy right now so that you can get compliance, since they won't remember it later. The guidance, procedures and information supplied so far appears to be using the caregiver dementia guidance.

Who remembers the days when wearing a mask was a bad thing and dangerous for you to do, according to the CDC and public health people? Who remembers when wearing a face covering was a good thing, but using N95 masks had to be avoided so that they would be conserved for healthcare workers, according to the CDC and public health people?

I'm tired of being manipulated by someone else, "For my own good" rather than being given factual information so that I could make reasonable and sound choices. If the curves are right, it makes no difference as to whether I will be infected, but only when it will happen. The only thing that will change the number of infections is the release of a working vaccine and curve manipulation by behavior modification is useful if it delays infection potential until after a working vaccine is deployed and widely available.

I look forward to the statistical antibody test studies are competed in about a year since the only solid data we have right now is number of hospitalizations and number of deaths, although even those numbers are underestimates.

I found the Newsweek article that reported 24 COVID19 infections in December 2019 in France to be very interesting. The article indicated that blood samples of 24 patients that died in France in December, 2019 of pneumonia were recently tested and found to be positive for COVID19. This indicates that the disease went free range in November/December of 2019, world wide.

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#36
In reply to #35

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

05/04/2020 9:34 PM

Bingo!

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#37
In reply to #35

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

05/04/2020 10:58 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSyrA5pHyrE&fbclid=IwAR2PL7iySfD6Z3e-j1q8GHxhnIBJE5SW6HJbOZ-rBRjh6s2pTuC4YShJqG4

Wake up, this is so over rated!

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#39
In reply to #35

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

05/15/2020 4:41 AM

I agree wholeheartedly!

I heard the argument from the "other" side earlier today.

If we remain 100% safe (they believe wearing a mask anytime you're outside accomplishes this) and keep 6 feet from others, then we'll stop the spread. This will save lives until we create a vaccine. Until then, we keep the county shut down. Of course, you can go to the beach, but only to walk/run and you must wear a mask. If you go in the water, you don't need a mask. And no sitting on the sand!!!

When I take my trash bin out or bring it back, I need to put a mask on. Yes, this is so I don't contaminate others, even though I've followed all their protocols - I should be safe if I did, right?

If I go for a walk in the neighborhood, I need to wear a mask.

But, I can go to the grocery store and if I'm asymptomatic, it'll be on my skin, clothes and hair. As I touch things or bump into things, I'll transfer CV. And as I hand the clerk cash, I'll also transfer CV. And when the clerk touches the next person's cash, he'll pass CV to them ... BUT the county said that I'll be okay if I wear a mask, so it doesn't matter if someone with CV touched something in the store or handed money to the checkout guy. I'm safe, because I'm wearing a mask!

Come on!!!

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#43

Re: Coronavirus and Logic

05/24/2020 7:32 AM

It is good list to handle Corona Virus and follow of these activities but we can not control everything. So We need to follow healthy routine that give immunity power to our body.

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