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Current Status of Practical Quantum Computers

10/17/2025 11:00 PM

I have been researching the current status of Quantum Computing with a view to maybe entering some post-graduate certification course, particularly as it relates to encryption and data security.

I have come to a fairly skeptical conclusion, both from a hardware development point of view and, probably even more skeptical, view of the algorithm development field.

Please, let me say at the outset, I have no doubt PQ Computing CAN have a significant impact on decryption, but there is, in my mind, still huge gap between what we currently have and what, predicted, requirements would be.

Firstly, for example, IBM currently has ~1150 Physical Qubits. That’s, theoretically, ~20 Logical Quibits.

The, suggested, amount of Logical Qubit’s required to factorize PGP encryption is ~4,000,000. That’s ~200,000,000 Physical Qubits. Not impossible if you can find a suitable substrate to assemble said Physical Qubits on, which they haven’t, at least not under reliable, sensible, economically viable conditions.

Secondly, though Shor’s Algorithm ‘suggests’ the ability to more efficiently factorize PGP level encryption, it is still more of an Oracle Algorithm than fully developed, and research in this area is stunted, to say the least.

With this in mind, I’m inclined to think, USEFUL Quantum Computers are eons away, if at all possible, and the current ‘hype’ is purely Wall Street opportunism.

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#1

Re: Current Status of Practical Quantum Computers

10/18/2025 7:31 PM

Here is some excellent information about quantum computing...

https://quantumexplainer.com/quantum-gates-and-circuits/

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#2
In reply to #1

Re: Current Status of Practical Quantum Computers

10/18/2025 8:07 PM

Thank you. Very interesting information.

However, my assessment already assumes that the logical components of the Quantum Computer are error free, to the extent of acceptable accuracy, and arranged in Logical Qubit arrays.

To this end, as it may apply as a threat to Classical Computing Data Encryption, the current leader's in Quantum Computer's still pose only a theoretical threat to data security.

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#3

Re: Current Status of Practical Quantum Computers

10/22/2025 12:10 PM

The future always looks close to some and far to others, I guess it depends on your point of view, experience and age....Fusion energy is a good example, and flying cars as common transportation....Geothermal energy looks close to me, but I'm guessing I'm in the minority...If you're passionate about something just put your head down and work towards that goal, you may or may not get there but it doesn't really matter, it's the pursuit that counts...Some people work their whole lives to change the world and accomplish very little, while some people stumble on something that changes it overnight....that's just the way it is...

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#4
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Re: Current Status of Practical Quantum Computers

10/22/2025 2:23 PM

With fusion, we're led to believe they are tantalizingly close, yet commercial implementation seems just out of our grasp. They are making progress, but commercially viable may never come. I remember as a youngster reading the refrain, " . . . just ten more years . . ." over fifty years ago. If they were that close, Elon would be all over it.

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#5

Re: Current Status of Practical Quantum Computers

10/22/2025 3:10 PM

True and true...

Its a shame really, my 'bucket list' of 'useful' retirement projects has more crosses than ticks currently...

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#6

Re: Current Status of Practical Quantum Computers

10/24/2025 10:33 AM

It's my understanding that the current limitations are due to the time qubits can be kept in superposition before decoherence shuts them down. The right breakthrough could change the situation considerably.

I suspect that governments are providing considerable funding in light of what Shor's algorithm can do to encryption.

https://microtime.com/quantum-computing-in-2024-breakthroughs-challenges-and-what-lies-ahead/

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#7

Re: Current Status of Practical Quantum Computers

10/24/2025 11:19 AM

" The right breakthrough could change the situation considerably."

Totally agree.

But, at this point, the conversation still centre's on "potential", "promises", "infancy", "claims", and "on the horizon" jargon rather than For Sale listings.

I just hope the investment dollars don't run out before industry patience does.

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#8

Re: Current Status of Practical Quantum Computers

11/07/2025 5:15 AM

Quantum computers and fusion reactors, all coming soon! <sigh>
They've been saying that for the last 10 years.
The current "AI" boom is merely demonstrating how awful AI is.
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#9

Re: Current Status of Practical Quantum Computers

11/17/2025 1:36 AM

As a Layman in QC terms, just what "maic" benefits will this "Supernova" Computer bring ??
How would it benefit my life ?? The idea has been around for years, just like H2 motors for cars, Elon's new Sportscar, etc.etc.

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#10
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Re: Current Status of Practical Quantum Computers

11/17/2025 2:22 AM

From my point of view, practically nothing.

Nothing of any real benefit to humanity will happen in my lifetime(65yo) even if they do actually get a QC to scale enough.

But, I can see long-term benefits, particularly in Quantum Chemistry(read: Pharmaceutical development), but even there there are huge problems with current algorithm's that need to be overcome before a decent QC can be of any real use. Don't hold your breath.

Really, from what can ascertain, the only people who are still super-optimistic about the 'life changing' impact of Quantum Computer's are the people who have to report to their shareholders and those who have dedicated a whole career to it.

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#11

Re: Current Status of Practical Quantum Computers

11/17/2025 11:49 AM

Just a hayseed fly by comment. We are never gonna see fusion power or quantum qubits. Because we are ignorant of a particle’s dynamic architecture.

We have no idea of what matter is. Most even reject the idea of substance.

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