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The Engineer
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Physicists Predict the End of the Housing Bubble

06/08/2005 10:05 AM

Two Physicists, Didier Sornette and Wei-Xing Zhou, believe that housing prices have risen so quickly in 22 states that a "housing bubble" has been created that could burst next year. This is an interesting subject. I know there is a lot of debate as to whether we are in a housing bubble or not. The price of houses have skyrocketed in recent years in some areas, which seems like a bubble to me, but the technology bubble bursting in 2001 has made me cynical.

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The Feature Creep

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#1

Figures

06/08/2005 10:32 AM

Don't say that to me. I just bought a house last year. I'm shocked to see that the house is worth @15% more than we paid for it. Of course some places like Southern California are well overdo for a price correction.
I would like to see the math that they used to calculate this bubble burst. I guess they are doing it as a closed system where as long as energy (money) is added to the system the entropy is kept at bay, however as soon as enough people say "This is to much." the resulting panic might cause a collapse as people who were saying "I should buy before it gets to expensive." switch to "I'll see if they go down further."

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#2

Physicists

06/08/2005 10:55 AM

When the economists said this a few months ago, I wasn't worried, but now that the physicists have weighed in....

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Guru
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#3

Bursted Bubble

06/08/2005 11:27 AM

When the bubble bursts, it will create quite a mess.

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The Feature Creep

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#4
In reply to #3

Re:Bursted Bubble

06/08/2005 11:31 AM

Can you imaging buying a million dollar house and having it drop %30 of its value in 18 months? That will be the nightmare.

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#5
In reply to #4

Re:Bursted Bubble

06/08/2005 4:25 PM

Like any long-term investment, a house's value will go up and down with the market. As long as you purchased a house in good condition, in a decent neighborhood it will come back with the next real estate uptick (unless the house or the neighborhood goes to pot in the ensuing years). However, if you are buying now with the hopes of turning the house around in a year or two for a profit, you may have missed the boat.

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The Feature Creep

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#6
In reply to #5

Re:Bursted Bubble

06/09/2005 8:19 AM

No we are planning on being there for the long haul, so I know it will keep going up in value. I'm just glad that we got a house that was almost guaranteed to go up in value.

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