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The Elephant in the Room - Climate-gate and Cosmetics for Data

11/25/2009 12:58 PM

The media's hand picked quotes from the thousands of documents/e-mails leaked from East Anglia suggest that there was pressure placed on researchers to do a little cosmetic work on graphs that did not perfectly support the thesis and to use data of questionable quality if it could be taken to support the thesis. The documented plans to destroy data rather than allow open evaluation is another issue, but regarding the pressure to "tweak" data, have any of you experienced it in your work?

I once had to take over a new material development project for a colleague who was leaving the company. The company's new material was supposed to provide increased resilience to rubber compounds. An analysis of the data my colleague had generated revealed that our new material actually acted as an inert filler, providing no measurable impact to any physical properties of the compound. My colleague had lead the R&D director to believe otherwise, and I had been given the data the afternoon before a big meeting with the customer we were wooing to fund further research. I showed the R&D director the analysis, and pointed out how the data he had been shown by my colleague was misleading. The director told me, "Keep quiet at the meeting tomorrow. The customer might not notice, and we can make a material that works if they fund the next phase of the project." I declined to attend the meeting, and two weeks later the customer came back with, "We were hoping for something with a little more activity," and severed their relationship with my company at the time since we provided "irreproducible results."

I've also watched a colleague spot trends in data where the signal-to-noise ratio hopelessly masked any trends that might be present. His confidence in his thesis lead to illusions in his perception. I know I've had to have holes in some of my data sets pointed out by more objective observers.

Have any of you ever been pressured to tweak or ignore data? How widespread do you think these sorts of things are in academia and industry?

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#1

Re: The Elephant in the Room - Climate-gate and Cosmetics for Data

11/25/2009 1:51 PM

I see this often, and have have issues with it.

"Fudge the Figures' we call it.

The data often tends to follow the funding.

I guess that's the way of the world

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#2
In reply to #1

Re: The Elephant in the Room - Climate-gate and Cosmetics for Data

11/26/2009 1:44 AM

Precisely.

Which is why the whole climate change movement is suspect at the very core: the motivation of the "researchers." When grant-driven research is used to try to subvert the world's economies, a much greater burden-of-proof is required than "a consensus of mainstream scientists agree..." Of course a consensus agrees; they agree that they wish to continue being funded. And the funding continues from power-mad politicians who see the hysteria as a means for taking over entire economies and subjecting them to central planning. A scheme, by the way, which was totally discredited under various communist (red) regimes, but which is resurrected as something new and different and good when painted "green." Which is why, as they say, "Green is the new Red." And the Green Party, or environmentalism, is the home of old communists looking for greener pastures.

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#3

Re: The Elephant in the Room - Climate-gate and Cosmetics for Data

11/28/2009 11:22 PM

When I was in college for the second time a number of years ago (older than average student) I had a environmental geology class I really liked. For our final grade we had to present a paper on an environmental issue that we felt was relevant to our selves. I chose to do mine on the methods and procedures relating to how the data is collected for global warming and climate study is done being at the time I was rather serious and concerned about the beginning of the global warming problem.

After much reading of the actual reports that the USGS and other federal and private agencies publish relating to environmental studies and doing a close look at the data collection methods and margins of error which must be accounted for and documented in the reports involved I felt like a total fool and an idiot for ever believing that crap they said on the news and jammed down everyones throats.

The margin of error in typical real world data collection is between 25% and 95%. WTF? The margin of error is greater than the accuracy of most of the information presented. When graphed there is no solid pattern or trend in much of it.

The hot topic at the time was the supposed 35% rise in green house gas level in the atmosphere. The real calculated mathematical estimate number is 1000 times less than that with a 95% margin or error on top of it! The testing and data collection methods base line background noise numbers are greater than the assumed rise in green house gasses.

Since then I have a completely different view as to what effect we humans have on the overall environment. I do my part to be cleaner, more responsible, and less wasteful with what I have but I don't believe the garbage they say on the news about global warming or negative climate change ever!

If you do the numbers and actual chemistry behind how emissions systems work on vehicles you will likely change your mind about what they really do as well. Trust me suposedly using more fuel per mile to make less emissions output doesn't add up either.

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#4

Re: The Elephant in the Room - Climate-gate and Cosmetics for Data

12/13/2009 12:09 AM

Guest deserves a GA, but should register and be wecomed. The whole human factor is a scam. Last week the BBC showed a graph showing that the CO2 levels for the last 800,000 years have been lower than today. The earth is 6 billion years old or something like that, so why pick on the last million years? Oh yeah, the geological records show that up until about a million years ago, the CO2 levels were something like 1000 times higher. It has never been this low in the life of the planet. But then, showing that graph would be politically incorrect and suicidal.

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