Is the drought in Australia over?

Big country getting over three drought periods at least over the last 15 years but as usual doing it the hard way with severe widespread flooding (NSW, Channel Country etc) this year as an El Nino event slwly decays into what we now see as a better than 50% chance of a La Nina counterbalancing wet period. Not yet certain despite strong SOI signs.

Most capital cities and their surrounding areas all on severe water restrictions (no garden watering with hoses, sprinklers or irrigation for example) while agriculture, local govt, industry etc either take advantage of lunatic historical water "rights" destroying native ecologies irrevocably or are excused cutting back on water use for washing coke bottles and manufacturing cement because it's easier to terrorise the individual householder.

States at war with each other over cross-border water rights, major river systems collapsing, Federal govt trying to make political capital out of setting up a thousand more water quangos, most of Eastern Australia in declared drought (ie govt aided) either now or during this year, dairy and vegetable or fruit industries teetering on brink, wheat back to boom after solid, timely winter rains, many instances of aberrational weather (storms, temps, rainfall distribution, cyclones etc).

Situation nomal, all funked up . . .

macadamia man,

You are clearly one of those individuals who has a hard time speaking his mind.......pun intended.

In her poem "My Country" Dorothea McKellar speaks of "droughts and flooding rains"

This is typical of Australia where we are now coping with major floods in some areas while others have hardly had any rain.

The Melbourne water storages have gone from 28.9% to around 31% so we have a long way to go.

Some others are overflowing while others have hardly had a drop.

While it is true that during June the eastern seaboard and southern highlands saw above average rain and snow falls it comes at the end of what some climatologists believe is the worst drought in 1,000 years. The problem is, we only have reliable records going back between 100 and 200 years so you cant just look up historical weather records. To do long term comparisons you need to extrapolate from things like growth rings in trees, coral growth rates and a whole raft of other indicators. The 1,000 year drought is a well educated guess and there is a good chance that the current drought is even more unique than many think.

I just had a look and found that the current dam storage levels around Australia. Here is a summary:

• Canberra 38.58%
• Darwin 90%
• Hobart 77%
• Melbourne 31.5%
• Perth 22%Note 3
• Sydney 53.1%
• Snowy Mountains Hydro^{Note 1}
• Lake Eucumbene 8%
• Lake Jindabyne 49%
• Tantangara reservoir 5%
• River Murray Water ^{Note 1}
• Dartmouth Reservoir 50%
• Hume Reservoir <20%
• Menindee Lake <40%
• Lake Victoria 60%
• Adelaide 67%^{Note 2}
• Brisbane 18.01%

Note 1 The reservoirs of the Snowy Mountains Hydro scheme are filled with the melt waters from the southern highlands. The current levels have never been as low as they currently are and they were anticipating that they would need to cease electricity production later this year. However, the Southern Highlands have received several good snow falls over the last few weeks and if this trend continues the levels should rise dramatically when the snow melts towards the end of September. The melt waters of the southern highlands are also diverted to the west and ultimately feed the Murray River.

Note 2 The storage capacity of Adelaide's reservoirs is relatively low when compared to other cities around Australia and are therefore more volatile. Another factor that needs to be taken into account is Adelaide has a Mediterranean climate and so receives most of its rain during autumn and winter. Normally at this time of year you would expect the levels to be either at or approaching 100%. Apart from a small section of south western West Australia the rest of Australia receives the majority of its precipitation during the warmer months of September to April. The further north you go the more pronounced the difference becomes and once you pass the tropic of Capricorn the climate has a distinct wet and dry season with nearly all the rain coming between November to March.

While we have had some rain and many of the reservoir levels are increasing they are still below average and there are still water restrictions of varying degrees of severity in many places. The rainfalls have also not been as extensive as would have been liked and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued this statement on the current status of the drought.

Last week there was also a previously unseen phenomenon with the temperature of the ocean at 20° C. Considering the atmospheric temperature were only reaching 18° C having ocean temperatures this high is extremely unusual.

We are all hoping that the drought has indeed broken but it is going to take considerably more sustained rains before we can be sure. It is also going to take several years before everything returns to normal.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology have a really good web site that has lots of useful information about climate and weather that is not only applicable to Australia. If you are interested in weather then I would recommend having a look.

Crikey mate, I think we are getting it all,

Floods

If you want some we just need to drill straight down!

Thanks a lot Masu. I checked out the site, it's great. I've been fascinated by this drought.

Roger,

The short answer is NO.

Last week I travelled down inland and back up the coast. There have been some fairly widespread falls but the Eastern Darling Downs and the Lockyer and Brisbane valleys are still doing it tough. Major water storages along the Eastern seaboard are still low despite localised coastal flooding in areas as far apart as the Hunter (NSW) and Gippsland (VIC).

The rain in most districts has provided some surface water but not much run off. North Queensland however from about Mackay North has been quite wet. The Sugar cane crush is being delayed as more falls. It will be a busy period from now to Christmas to get all the millions of tonnes off especially in the Johnstone area where the Mourilian Mill which Cyclone Larry killed will not be replaced.

One swallow does not make a spring.

Australia is still empty, it will take a while to fill up.

You got it.