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Common Purposes

What are the Common Purposes? I've dwelt on that question since first reading my alma mater's founding principle "for the purposes of instructing persons, who may choose to apply themselves, in the application of science to the common purposes of life". The question, more than any answer I may ever offer, has guided me through many personal and professional endeavors. And, if I have learned anything it is that I have derived my greatest joy when I, as part of a team, have made a lasting difference to improve the lives of others. Should the thoughts I share here and the ensuing discussion lead others to ask the same question, to seek their own answers and to experience the same joy as I, then I shall consider this effort of value.

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Opportunities in Commercial Aircraft Growth

Posted January 23, 2007 2:24 PM by MillMatt

George Will, columnist for The Washington Post, has written a bullish article titled "Boeing's Winning Hand". Will paints a rosy forecast for the commercial aircraft industry and, in particular, for Boeing. Note: the article is also readily available at The Patriot Post.

Some figures that he shares:

  • The commercial aviation market will double in the next 20 years
  • There will be 27,000 planes built at a cost of $2.6 trillion.
  • Boeing has invested $8 billion to develop the forthcoming 787 Dreamliner
  • Airbus has invested $16 billion in its faltering A380 program.
  • The Boeing 787 draws on ten subcontractors from four continents who provide four million parts.
  • Each day 60,000 people fly in Boeing aircraft.

He also comments on some of the strategic and technical issues that will influence the market. Given the technical challenges, global reach and sustained growth of this industry, there should be many wonderful career paths for engineers.

If I may ask a question, could someone tell me where George Will or others obtain this substantive information on Boeing? While I admire Will's journalism, I would like to review the same quantitative information as he so that I may make my own assessment. Of note: within a week of publishing his article, investors were greeted with news that Boeing's stock (see chart) price had fallen nearly 5% in heavy trading; some attributed the decline to an analyst's report issued by Wachovia that downgraded the stock from "Outperform" to "Mkt Perform". I find it curious that these events came on the heels of Mr. Will's article.

I have often heard that once I read about a financial opportunity, it was too late to invest since everyone had the same news and the professional investors were already moving to other opportunities. Perhaps that is true here; nonetheless, CR4 readers should be mindful of the very different goals to which the investment community is beholden. Let pragmatism prevail in your career goals as there is an enormous opportunity for those who wish to invest their intelligence, energy, experience and passion.

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Re: Opportunities in Commercial Aircraft Growth

01/23/2007 4:34 PM

I don't know where George Will gathers his facts, MillMatt, but I'd like to see them first-hand, too. One thing he's neglected to mention is that most airports don't have large enough facilities to accommodate the Airbus A380. If Mr. Will had known about this, he might have wondered aloud whether Airbus execs understand how the American taxpayer will feel about the cost of subsidizing new runway construction. After all, many U.S. airports are owned by state or municipal agencies (e.g., Boston's Logan Airport is "owned" by the Massachusetts Port Authority).

With regard to your other point - "let pragmatism prevail in your career goals" - I can only say that the aviation industry isn't for the faint of heart. In a past life, I worked for a company that supplied logistics and maintenance management software to the largest airline in Asia. There was never a dull moment in terms of job security or job stability. In such an industry, you feel the effects of worldwide events before many others do. September 11, the SARS epidemic, and the spike in fuel prices hit us - and our customers - fast and hard.

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