Predicting the Chemical Future

Hi Everyone,

After my opinion, "significant modifications" will not occur in any and existing industries. Progression with variable speeds will occur as did up to today. In my domain, coating industry, solvent based products will disappear and replaced by waterbourne products (My profound wishes!), which will use again carbon-based compositions to progress with less toxic releases.

I am not pessimistic about the future but I see it differently than many scientific describe it or suggest it. For example, Hawkins tells us that humanity will go to other planets to survive. Please, I respect Hawkins knowledge but after my understanding his saying has some problem. How humanity goes to another planet(s) to survive? We are far from any planets can eventually lodge few billion persons at 10, 100, or worst 1000 light years away. How we will survive during the travel? It was easy to say around 30 years back that computer will eliminate use of paper. Today, we use probably more but definitely not less paper than before.

Around 5,000 years ago we burned forests to accomodate agricultural activities. Today, we cut trees at higher speed to print newspapers, brochures, and ..., which are thrown as garbage within a day, and we recycle only a small part of them.

If scientific people run politics at place of politicians, the changes will be more drastical and positive. However, when we speak business development, I cannot foresee big changes because accountants (beancounters), push for more money, so, forget real changes.

Probably, many of you, you see me as a pessimist but I am not one. My sentences were created during the last two weeks by watching Canadian TVO programs (tvo.org/theagenda). Many scientifics or thinkers talked about future for things and people living in this planet. Most of them are well talking and educated dreamers. They talk about overpopulation, robots, and other futuristic subjects. Think and reflect a few minutes and we discover that we eat things from earth and living on earth. In the past, today, and for sure in the future, we continue to do the same with very little variations. We created some robots but I heard that those robots will teach us what to do in the very near future. Please, a robot that we just created with our limited intelligence will tell us what to do, and what to do the right way. So, robots we just created will change themselves into smarter robots? That's beyond all undrstandings. This will be the revolution of robots against humanity, the creators of those robots? Haha! Let me laugh for a second.

Before the end of 2009, I wish a very positive 2010 to everyone living on Earth. Have good health and positive attitude that changes will only occur when you, individually do something important around you for yourself. Happy New Year!!! Gil.

Happy New Year to everyone,

There is no answer to my long introduction, I will add something to my appearently pescimistic blog.

I worked and still work in the coating and mainly in the house paint industry. This industry did not changed during the last 3 or 4 decades. The quality of paints made still lousy, inconsistent, and not delivering what is promised. Today as in the late 60s, batch to batch consistency did not changed, which is the most important quality of a house paint. Equipment are the same or very close, and I ask to think about the position of all controls. Really, the disperser makers were and still revolted when I asked to relocate those controls, concentrate to make easier to work for the batchmakers. I got critics and refusal.

Today, most of the people disperse pigments and extenders, and pigment blends. The fineness of grind is not at optimum level and in the shortest time. Loss of hiding power of the most expensive ingredients and variation from one batch to another occurs.

For example, by weight we have 86% of yellow oxide, 10% titanium white, 3% of organic orange, 1% burnt umber. After dispesions, four (4) times, the colour was off from the standard and each dispersion was perceptively different. Suggestion made, disperse one in a sand-mill as in other cases, only yellow oxide separately and alone. To complete the paint add dispersion of TiO2, and some colourants for the remaining pigments, all available and well controlled. The colour of this paint matched the standard. The paint made with the last method was accepted by the customer but the new formula or the way to produce the paint was refused because it is not made the way the company produced paint until now. They use the same equipment, the same materials but they mix pigments and disperse them differently. It's not possible to obtain the same colour by that method. Beancounters said that colourants cost more than dry pigments, which is true but adjusting colour is time consuming and costs money too, and refused paint is a total waste. No one understood that economy was made simply, rapidly in one shot, and when the paint was sold and not by the choice of process and products we used. Again, business must make profits because there is no business without profits. Someone said this one before me!

In our industry than elsewhere, raw materials products evoluted to good to excellent during the last decades. We have fantastic waterbourne vehicles for all kinds of paint. We have very fine inorganic and organic pigments replacing toxic once with good to excellent hiding. We can buy first class, non-toxic additives to make high quality products. However, the consistency of paints are the same as before.

This indiquate that the industry evaluates but doesn't change too much. We have other industries like pharmaceuticals, they produce new and good products but many others are just to do business and don't have any relationship with human health.

We have more and more cumputers, more sofisticated, more reliable, more faster but help, communication between people and organizations as predicted is not there. So, being not too much pessimistic, I see evolution in many areas but not too much changes for the major part of the population.

Wait for some answer, Gil.