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Does Successful IPO Justify Auto Bailout?

Posted December 09, 2010 7:02 AM

Supporters of the government bailout of General Motors claim that the resounding popularity of the automaker's stock offering last month is further proof that the federal rescue plan was merited. More than 400 million GM shares traded hands during its debut on the Big Board, which reduced Uncle Sam's stake in the company from 61% to 36%. GM profits also are on the rise, and the Center for Automotive Research estimates that government aid to GM and Chrysler saved more than 1.4 million jobs in 2009 and 2010. Opponents of the bailout, however, claim that if GM had been forced to severely atrophy or liquidate, other automakers would have had greater revenues, more market share, and higher profits. Those competitors also would likely have had more money to invest in R&D for needed future technologies. Where do you stand on this controversial issue?

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#1

Re: Does Successful IPO Justify Auto Bailout?

12/09/2010 8:35 AM

The people who owned shares in 'old GM' were screwed BIG TIME by the bailout, which was done mainly to help the unions (who, by the way, profited tremendously from the new IPO). My wife inherited about 400 shares of GM stock from her grandfather (who once worked for GM and was a union man at the time), and a few years ago this stock was worth about $20,000. Admittedly, that's not a lot of money, but it's not chump change either. It's gone. That 'old GM' stock is now completely worthless.

Would the stock have been worthless even without the 'bailout'? Maybe so, but if 'normal' market forces had been allowed to act, GM might have been broken up and/or bought by one or more other automakers and the old stock might have eventually regained some value.

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#2
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Re: Does Successful IPO Justify Auto Bailout?

12/09/2010 11:19 PM

The basic problem is that the unions are the problem.

Did you know that in any union a cost of living raise is a zero raise, that preserves the excess wages and prevents economic reality from creeping in and correcting things.

If you take the period of greatest loss in the auto section, 1950 to 2000, they all got cost of living raises and also got 2-3% annually as well. Under the rule of 72

http://www.ehow.com/how_2171216_use-rule-72.html

at a combined 6% for raise and cost of living that wages double in 12 years, at 5% they double in 14.4 years. So in the time between 1950 and 2000 = 40 years it comes to about a ten fold increase in wages. I recall my first job in 1955 at $10 for a 44 hour week. My first job in 1962 as a graduate engineer was $180 per week

That is why over the same period 85% of auto jobs vanished to offshore makers or automation.

Yes, the UAW killed off 85% of their jobs because they used the young workers to get laid off, under seniority rules, they went first.

At the end all US/Canada manufacturing was dragged up by the high wages of unions.

Now this has come home to roost. You can make nothing in the USA more cheaply than in Korea/China/India. The short term advantage of high tech work is soon lost as US makers build high tech plants in China. There is no way these jobs will come back. So we have the jobless recovery, if you can call it that. Free trade is only valid between two countries whose workers get the same wages. So the US$ would tend to fall and Chinese currency would tend to rise.....but China prevents it. They are not as stupid as the USA by any means. Soon all we will have left is service workers, and since they make nothing, the USA will enter into a decline. Canada is better off, it makes oil, wood and metals, even though its manufacturing economy has been killed off the same as the USA, which keeps Canada afloat.

Often I post a comment like this, one that right on topic, but it soon gets marked off topic by union people. The truth is unpalatable. So if you see that, toss in a good point or two. Each good one cancels one off topic point.

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#13
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Re: Does Successful IPO Justify Auto Bailout?

12/10/2010 5:40 PM

To the topic... a successful IPO in no way justifies the bailout (this is an ends justifying the means). Just as the guest above points out as well as the article itself, the "too big to fail" is a fallacy that bilked alot of people out of alot of money. Allowing it to fail didn't necessarily mean losing the 1.4 million jobs. Again guest above points out what often happens... a business starts losing money and begins selling off assets until GM is now Honda or Nissan or whatever and those 1.4 million people just make a different car.

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#3

Re: Does Successful IPO Justify Auto Bailout?

12/10/2010 5:58 AM

The question and replies to date are all looking at this from a blinkered US perspective. Several GM and Chrysler plants in Europe closed as well as the US job losses. The root cause was as much lack of investment in new technology as high wages. Compare the output in terms of cars per worker of any US car plant to the GM Ellesmere Port plant in the UK. Then do the same comparison with the Nissan plant in the UK.

Ellesmere Port beats the US plants by a long way, some of it on wage levels but working practices have a much greater impact. Even allowing for the fact that Health and Safety legislation in the UK is much stricter than the US. Nissan beats Ellesmere Port by as much, with the same wage, union and legislative structure.

The atrophy had set in a long time prior to the bail out, that is why the bailout was necessary.

It is worth noting that the US bailout would have let the GM German Opal plants go to the wall. It was the German government who stepped in the keep them afloat, with screams from the rest of the European car industry of unfair subsidies.

GM used the government bailout to shake out jobs and improve efficiency. They could then leverage private finance to further the transformation. New models are more fuel efficient and less polluting, and the US public are voting with their pocket books.

The rest of the worlds car industry is not standing still. Those increased profits need to be reinvested, and that means further improvements and more job losses to come. If the US public will not accept that, they should resign themselves to the complete closure of US car production within twenty years.

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#4

Re: Does Successful IPO Justify Auto Bailout?

12/10/2010 8:21 AM

Everyone wants to blame the big bad unions. How about the CEO's who run the companies into the ground losing billions and giving themselves millions in bonuse's every year. Last I checked the banking industries that went belly up (Bear Stearns, Washington Mutual), and many others were not union run. Fact of the matter is If it was not for unions, you would have people working 80 hours a week making next to nothing in unsafe, sweat shops with very little concern for the enviroment, (China, Indonesia, Vietnam, etc.)

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#5
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Re: Does Successful IPO Justify Auto Bailout?

12/10/2010 8:52 AM

There is definitely plenty of blame to go around. Regardless of who's fault it is, if they are not able to turn things around and maintain profitability, the end result will be the same.

Remember too, when people speak of unions, it's not the card carrying, working members that they have a beef with. It's the all too powerful union leaders, that often times push for things that end up ultimately hurting the members and the companies they work for.

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#6
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Re: Does Successful IPO Justify Auto Bailout?

12/10/2010 9:05 AM

Management shares the guilt, they gave in, because if they kept the strike on, the other automakers would make cars (due to the pattern method, strike one and assure that pressure)

In fact the big three should have had a full lockout policy. Striking one is striking all.

Yes, the sweatshop argument, now the sweatshops are gone, the unions should also go, or we will see the decline carry on.

Now, proud union man, what if we all got the same wages you got? Would you be happy? Would it help?

Of course not, the economy works best when work of a similar type gets similar wages. Skilled workers get more, diggers get less. And free trade only works if the countries have similar wages. What we have now is de-facto dumping by China.

Carried to the extreme, all jobs will leave the USA except jobs you perform in place, like cutting grass or building houses....a great future.

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#7

Re: Does Successful IPO Justify Auto Bailout?

12/10/2010 9:56 AM

I look at it like this. Many people cry foul because everyone likes to believe they're unique and special. Trouble is we're more similar than we are unique, but thats a conversation for another day.

Management always was and should always be on the side of the people with idea's. They implement the idea, they design the product, they figure out how to market it, they figure out how to make money on it. Those people will always be the few, by nature. The rest, and we all fit into the category at least sometimes, generally fall in line and help make the idea a reality. The many put it together, the many build through the sweat of their labor. The many did not have the idea, but they took the opportunity, and in doing so made a living off the few who did.

However, when things get perverded, as they often do, roles reverse. The many realize control over the few. The few quit having good ideas, and the whole thing fails. I don't know when unions quit trying to abolish the abhorent working conditions of the 19th and 20th century. But I do sense that at some point their goal changed. And they went from looking out for the little guy, to trying to control the few with the many.

I don't have a problem with the unions original intention. However there is precious little need for that now, and it's mostly sporatic and isolated in our country. There is no great mass of people repressed by the robber baron's of Whereverville.

Therefore I find it sad and disheartening that as our countries auto industry died, and the american people were forced to provide money as lifeblood, that no one was able to kill off the cancer that brought it to it's knees.

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#8
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Re: Does Successful IPO Justify Auto Bailout?

12/10/2010 10:08 AM

Well put Jason. GA

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#9
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Re: Does Successful IPO Justify Auto Bailout?

12/10/2010 2:04 PM

Nice balance. I think that unions have made important contributions to society in the past, and most of us are better off for it. Most of those improvements, which were initially contained in the bargaining agreements are now enshrined in law and embedded in the our way of life. The company town and company store are now historical oddities. Most people now accept the forty hour work week, and that the risk of death or dismemberment are not just part of the job. I think we all owe a debt to the unions and union workers who fought long and hard (and sometimes to the death) to make this a reality.

But having won the battle against very long odds, the unions in many cases then abused their new power to gain not just decent wages, but pretty damn cushy wages. I think the UAW is a poster child for this abuse. But it is hardly the only major factor in GM's demise. As you say 'management always was and should always be on the side of the people with ideas'. But rather than adopt the new ideas about efficient high quality manufacturing, the new 'ideas' they adopted seem to have been centered on more chrome, more horsepower, etc. It was not a shortage of good ideas so much as bad management judgement about which new ideas to implement. There's plenty of blame to go around. Hell we should even put some of the blame on the customers who made it all possible by buying their products. GM's successful IPO is an encouraging sign, but this story is not over yet so I'd say it's too soon to tell.

You correctly point out that the people who come up with the good new ideas are few in number. I think we often make a mistake in thinking that these folks are motivated by hopes of economic gain. Often truly creative people come up with new ideas because it's what they do for fun. I don't mean to suggest that they are unaware of the potential rewards, or that because they are having fun they shouldn't get paid for what they do. I just mean that one of the differences that sets them apart is that they are more interested in how things work and how things could work better, and less concerned with what's in it for them. Just an opinion. I've included a complete list of my patents below...

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#10
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Re: Does Successful IPO Justify Auto Bailout?

12/10/2010 2:24 PM

Where are your patents?

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#11
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Re: Does Successful IPO Justify Auto Bailout?

12/10/2010 4:34 PM

As Foghorn Leghorn would say 'Thats...I say that's a joke son'. Most of the little improvements I make are incremental, or involve combining one piece of prior art with another for use in a pretty specific new application. I doubt that they are patentable, and in any case I'm not really interested. I'm happy enough if they turn out to be useful, or even marketable. If someone can take my idea for a product and make it cheaper then that's probably a good thing. I'll just wait for another idea. For me it's the fun of making the first one that flips my switches. Making another one is just work. I'll do it for a price, but it's not what gets me up in the morning.

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#12
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Re: Does Successful IPO Justify Auto Bailout?

12/10/2010 5:12 PM

I figured it was a joke or you forgot a link or something.

I'm the same way, I'll make a little something or improve on something to make my life easier and move on. I do have a patent pending though. I made something for my daughter to help her learn while outdoors. It didn't exist before, and enough people thought it was awesome, that I went through the patent process. What a royal pain, I don't think I'd do it again unless I knew 100% that the payoff would be big.

You're right, once you take something that's fun and turn it into a job, it's no longer fun.

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Re: Does Successful IPO Justify Auto Bailout?

12/10/2010 5:44 PM

I was pretty sure that I'm not the only one that feels that way. I think one of the things economists and bean counters don't understand is that we are NOT all motivated by material gain. Maybe it's because that's what motivates them personally, and they can't imagine how it could be otherwise. So they base their reasoning from a reasonable premise that everybody (including creative types) are motivated by personal gain (I gain a sense of personal satisfaction), but then they fall off the track when they assume that personal gain = money. So in spite of their intellect and training it's garbage in - garbage out. I hope your patent works out and you let us all know about it, and of course about your pleasant experiences with your lawyers once you're covered.

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#15

Re: Does Successful IPO Justify Auto Bailout?

12/13/2010 10:25 AM

GM is a prime example of a company that got so large that it became unmanageable. The execs, fearing hits to their stock options, gave into the unions and kicked the can continually down the road. The union leaders, more interested in feathering their own nests, stop representing the health and welfare of its membership and got into bed with the politicians. Middle management thought they were titans of industry and treated anyone not aboard the GM liner as subhuman. Just ask their suppliers how they liked getting the "red headed stepchild" treatment.

Now, instead of letting the corpse die and be buried, the feds got in the muck and shot it full of our tax dollars and now FrankenGMstien is on the prowel. Will we ever learn?

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#16

Re: Does Successful IPO Justify Auto Bailout?

12/13/2010 10:41 AM

In my opinion. the GM IPO wasn't an IPO, certainly not in the classic capitalist sense.

It was an invitation only IPO. "Little people" like you and me weren't invited, and from what I've found, those who were invited were mostly banks, investment houses and foreign gov'ts, including Kuwait and China.

Why did the Obama gov't (the principal owner) allow this to happen in this manner? Guess we'll have to follow the money over time.

Hooker

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#17

Re: Does Successful IPO Justify Auto Bailout?

12/22/2010 9:41 AM

First just let me say that it was not the government's money to give away. We citizens allow them to do this by being gutless wonders seeking eternal parentage from government.

Nuff said on politics. The future for manufacturing in first world countries lies not in mass production (with the exception perhaps of raw material excavation and processing), but in custom production. When the Big 3 can learn how to build cars specified by customer's orders, perhaps by allowing customers to mix and match between components listed in a master catalog of sorts, they can then retain pricing power. The old business model of trying to guess how many mass produced cars per year the public will buy with salesmen and engineers trying to guess which modification for the year a customer will want and sending the cars out to dealerships is a model that worked well for awhile, but bury it now. Who really likes the car buying experience with the high pressure salespeople (internet salespeople are no exception) and the pricing differences between region and dealerships?

The auto manufacturer that can learn to take orders from the customers and give them what they want in a timely fashion, with quality of course, is the one that will be able to provide the jobs of the future. Competing with emerging market countries in mass production is a race to the bottom.

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#18

Re: Does Successful IPO Justify Auto Bailout?

12/23/2010 3:48 PM

The bailout is the first stem of many to follow towards happy era of fast approaching communism predicted by K. Marks! Americans, if you want be free of totalitarianism prevent the next steps. Marxism is not Healthy for you!

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