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Biofuel Bust?

Posted January 18, 2012 7:24 AM

The biofuels industry has been unable to convert millions in government research subsidies into an effective, large-scale cellulosic fuel conversion solution, according to this piece from Technology Review. Instead, one producer is switching back to corn as a primary feedstock, and is further buffering its risks by producing butanol rather than ethanol. Government mandates have not convinced fuel buyers to switch to biofuels, and a reliable supply of cellulosic feedstocks is not yet in place. Nevertheless, cellulosic biofuels could go a long way to reducing fossil fuel consumption. Is this the time for a biofuel Manhattan Project?

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Re: Biofuel Bust?

01/18/2012 8:03 AM

This is because the biofuel industry is nothing more than the laces on the political football. They are doomed to go whichever way the ball is kicked.

If free market demand was pushing this issue you can bet that it would have been resolved a long time ago.

It is hard to get people and markets to go for a product that costs more, even when it may be in our long term best interests. To make that happen governments tip the table so as to artificially level the playing field. Unfortunately, that has a whole set of other negative effects and it requires the tax payers to foot the bill.

The real problem is dislodging the politics from the studies and planning that rule these decisions. That is not going to happen, so the industry is going to take matters in their own hands and gravitate toward things that make the best economic sense.

The idea of a Manhattan Project for the biofuel industry is just not going to work. The difference between what the author suggests and the actual Manhattan Project is this:

1. It is not a given that biofuels offer a significant net gain for the desired outcome.

2. The degree by which politics rule the game is vastly different.

The real Manhattan Project was driven by a dire need to save our country and world from a raging world war. There was a high degree of consensus on the goal.

Biofuels does not have that consensus nor focus from all government parties. Simply put not everyone is on board and the reason that not everyone is on board is because the claimed driving factors are so shrouded in political fog. It is impossible to tell what is real versus contrived for political reasons. Too bad for us.

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#2
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Re: Biofuel Bust?

01/19/2012 5:46 PM

Can you hear the crickets? -GA

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