Derivations Blog

Derivations

A place for deriving stuff. We take requests.

Previous in Blog: Pizza Delivery By Drone Later This Year (In NZL)   Next in Blog: Rosetta's Philae Spacecraft Found
Close
Close
Close
8 comments
Rate Comments: Nested

Solar Power 80% Cheaper Since 2010 - Large Projects Planned Across the Globe

Posted August 27, 2016 2:49 PM by Bayes

I came across this article in The Economist. Its sub-headline caught my attention (Solar Power is Reshaping Energy Production in the Developing World) because The Economist is such a venerated (Founded in 1843) magazine and usually has a slightly conservative tone. However looking back I found a number of articles reported by the Economist, dated from this year, discussing the rapid rise of Solar Power projects across the globe. Here are a couple:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/daily-chart-2

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21696935-see-how-bright-future-solar-energy-look-developing-world-new-sunbathers

Here is the article that caught my attention:


Follow the sun

Solar power is reshaping energy production in the developing world

RAED KHADER, a Jordanian driver, has an alarming habit of thumbing his mobile phone while at the wheel—albeit on a straight road cutting across the desert. But after scrolling back through almost two years of photos, he finds a picture that tickles him: of camels against a sandy backdrop. Today that same spot

outside Ma’an, a poverty-stricken city in south Jordan, is crawling with workers in the final stages of installing five square kilometres (almost two square miles) of solar panels. He is enraptured by the photovoltaic (PV) modules that shimmer in the desert sunshine. “It’s amazing. I love it. It’s good to see my country develop its own source of energy,” he says. “We have such good sun here. It’s free. Why don’t we use more of it?” In his enthusiasm, he has convinced his daughter to become one of the first Jordanian women to study for a solar-energy engineering degree.

The 160-megawatt (MW) solar park, which is scheduled to open this summer, will mark the launch of

Jordan’s effort to reduce its fossil-fuel imports, which generated 96% of its energy last year and cost about 10% of GDP. In a restive neighbourhood, it has good reason to become more self-reliant. Its liking for solar intensified after Egypt temporarily cut natural-gas supplies during the Arab spring in 2011. The small steps sanctioned by Jordan’s cautious bureaucracy pale in comparison with the growth of solar energy in some other countries. But they illustrate the allure of the technology, as well as some of its teething problems. Across the developing world, solar power is hitting its stride. Rather than the rooftop panels popular in Germany, countries where solar irradiance is much stronger than northern Europe are creating vast parks with tens of thousands of flexible PV panels supplying power to their national grids. Some countries, such as China, provide generous subsidies (though these are sometimes years overdue). But in other countries solar PV is becoming competitive even without financial support.

In 2015 China surged past Germany to become the biggest producer of solar energy, benefiting from its dominance of solar-panel manufacturing and policies to reduce dependence on dirtier fuels, such as coal. Solar power accounts for just 3% of the electricity mix, but China is now building its biggest plant, in the Gobi desert. Analysts expect the country to install 12 gigawatts (GW) of solar in the first half of this year. That would be one-third more than the record amount America plans to build for the full year. Coal, meanwhile, is in growing trouble (see article). India is determined to keep up. Its government is targeting a 20-fold increase in solar-power capacity by 2022, to 100GW. Though this might be over-ambitious, KPMG, a consultancy, expects solar’s share of India’s energy mix to rise to 12.5% by 2025, from less than 1% today. It thinks solar in India will be cheaper than coal by 2020. (Even Coal India, a mostly state-owned entity, plans to contract 1GW of solar power to cut energy bills.) Such is the frenzy that officials in sunny Punjab are urging farmers to lease their land to solar developers rather than till it. Led by big projects in these two countries, global solar-energy capacity rose by 26% last year. More remarkable is the decline in its cost. Studies of the “levelised cost” of electricity, which estimate the net present value of the costs of a generating system divided by the expected output over its lifetime, show solar getting close to gas and coal as an attractively cheap source of power. Auctions of long-term contracts to purchase solar power in developing countries such as South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, Peru and Mexico provide real-world evidence that such assumptions may even prove to be conservative (see chart). In sunny places solar power is now “shoulder to shoulder” with gas, coal and wind, says Cédric Philibert of the International Energy Agency, a prominent forecaster. He notes that since November 2014, when Dubai awarded a project to build 200MW of solar power at less than $60 a megawatt hour (MWh), auctions have become increasingly competitive.

Article Continues on The Economist

Reply

Interested in this topic? By joining CR4 you can "subscribe" to
this discussion and receive notification when new comments are added.
Guru

Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: by the beach in Florida
Posts: 33392
Good Answers: 1817
#1

Re: Solar Power 80% Cheaper Since 2010 - Large Projects Planned Across the Globe

08/27/2016 3:42 PM

Still not cheap....

"So what is the current low-end cost of residential solar power? As of 2016, it’s approximately $3.00 per watt, installed. The average sized solar panel system is 5,000 watts, so this brings the total cost to $15,000. That 15k figure is just an average amount. Systems can cost more or less mostly depending upon a homeowner’s energy usage."

5kw is not enough for me, I would need at least 15 kw if I had room for the panels and batteries, which I don't....Just the 5kw installation would require 8+ years payback, 15kw would be 25+ years...If I was willing to spend that kind of money for no return...Now an off grid installation where no power was available, might be another story....

__________________
All living things seek to control their own destiny....this is the purpose of life
Reply
The Engineer
Engineering Fields - Engineering Physics - Physics... United States - Member - NY Popular Science - Genetics - Organic Chemistry... Popular Science - Cosmology - New Member Ingeniería en Español - Nuevo Miembro - New Member

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Albany, New York
Posts: 5060
Good Answers: 129
#2
In reply to #1

Re: Solar Power 80% Cheaper Since 2010 - Large Projects Planned Across the Globe

08/27/2016 4:16 PM

Still not cheap for us, but for countries that primarily have to import their energy like Jordan in the article, or for countries battling terrible pollution like China, it's a good deal. Also I expect the price to keep coming down.

States are starting to offer loans to get past that barrier you were speaking of. For instance in New York, where I live, they have these programs:

http://www.nyserda.ny.gov/All-Programs/Programs/NY-Sun/Customers/Solar-Financing-Options

However, all that said, it still isn't cheap enough for me to do it either. However, I do hate me some Niagara Mohawk, not as much as Time Warner Cable, but definitely enough to make the switch in a few years (2020?) if prices continue to fall.

Reply
Guru
Hobbies - DIY Welding - Wannabeabettawelda

Join Date: May 2007
Location: Annapolis, Maryland
Posts: 7942
Good Answers: 459
#3

Re: Solar Power 80% Cheaper Since 2010 - Large Projects Planned Across the Globe

08/28/2016 3:34 PM

If I were to build in an area where the hook-up cost to the grid was on parity or more with the cost of a solar installation, then yes.

Right now, I have an environmentally friendly supplemental cooling system for my house that I do not want to give up. Not only does it help keep my house cooler, but I am actively battling climate change at the same time.

My house is in space highlighted by the yellow rectangle. My summer time electric bill is one-half of that of my neighbors down the street in the identical model house who cleared out all the trees on their southern exposure. And I still have the original 1973 GE air conditioning unit with a SEER of probably 3. (It never has to work too hard.) In the winter, the leaves are gone and I can take advantage of a small amount of passive solar heating.

P.S. But it's not a gutter-friendly system by any means.

Reply
Guru

Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: by the beach in Florida
Posts: 33392
Good Answers: 1817
#4
In reply to #3

Re: Solar Power 80% Cheaper Since 2010 - Large Projects Planned Across the Globe

08/28/2016 4:48 PM

You only need one good size branch to fall on your roof during a storm, punching a hole in both your roof and your logic...Try repairing a roof in the middle of winter....Better to go with heavy insulation R-30+...and double or triple glazed windows....Your A/c unit is probably around an 8 EER...Bear in mind the EER rating is at peak load, and less than that, which is a lot of the time in your area I would think, the EER goes higher...It's easy enough to take an amp reading, but the hard part is getting actual BTU output....but it doesn't really matter as long as it's doing the job and the electrical cost is reasonable....

__________________
All living things seek to control their own destiny....this is the purpose of life
Reply
Guru
Hobbies - DIY Welding - Wannabeabettawelda

Join Date: May 2007
Location: Annapolis, Maryland
Posts: 7942
Good Answers: 459
#5
In reply to #4

Re: Solar Power 80% Cheaper Since 2010 - Large Projects Planned Across the Globe

08/29/2016 1:04 PM

Been here almost twenty years. As a former arborist, I keep an eye on my trees. I still have climbing gear but I use it sparingly in my 'old age'. Insurance will pay for the roof if that happens. Already have double-glazed windows. Windows are the last thing to replace/upgrade unless you have Colonial era single-glazed windows then the historical society won't let you upgrade them anyways. I know, it's probably an 8 to 10 SEER but you couldn't see the tongue in my cheek. I'm happy with the electric bills so steady as she goes Captain.

Reply
Guru

Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: by the beach in Florida
Posts: 33392
Good Answers: 1817
#6
In reply to #5

Re: Solar Power 80% Cheaper Since 2010 - Large Projects Planned Across the Globe

08/29/2016 2:43 PM

Haha.. It was an ice storm that struck when I was away....is an ice storm an act of God, or a natural disaster, wind damage, flood damage....If you can decipher your insurance coverage, you can bet your agent can spin it any way he wants to....I think about half the lawyers are employed by insurance companies....Anyway I'm sure you'll be fine....

Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!

__________________
All living things seek to control their own destiny....this is the purpose of life
Reply
Guru

Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: About 4000 miles from the center of the earth (+/-100 mi)
Posts: 9918
Good Answers: 1142
#7
In reply to #6

Re: Solar Power 80% Cheaper Since 2010 - Large Projects Planned Across the Globe

08/31/2016 11:44 AM

I think you're usually covered if it's a live tree. If it's dead, YOYO. Of course, there's still lots of inconvenience and deductible to pay, even if it is covered.

Reply
Guru
Hobbies - DIY Welding - Wannabeabettawelda

Join Date: May 2007
Location: Annapolis, Maryland
Posts: 7942
Good Answers: 459
#8
In reply to #7

Re: Solar Power 80% Cheaper Since 2010 - Large Projects Planned Across the Globe

09/01/2016 4:04 PM

Nope, not true. That's a covered peril under an HO-3. My wife is an insurance adjuster. She's just returned from the flood areas around Baton Rouge. They do not pay to cut down a dead tree that is a hazard to your house. If you have a hazard like that and the insurance company becomes aware of it, it can become an underwriting issue. They will pay removal costs of the part of the dead tree that is laying on your house or other covered structures, however. I'm insured with USAA. One of the best insurance companies there is, if you qualify. I've been with them since the eighties.

Good insurance companies are not out to screw their customers. Lousy ones do. My wife is an independent insurance adjuster and has done work for many different companies. Some are super low-cost and you will get super low-cost customer service. Others are very reasonable when it comes to settling claims. The biggest problem is dealing with customers who are committing outright fraud. Others just have no idea of what insurance is, and consider it to be some sort of bank account that they have been paying into and are entitled to withdraw it later.

Reply
Reply to Blog Entry 8 comments
Copy to Clipboard

Users who posted comments:

Bayes (1); Brave Sir Robin (3); Rixter (1); SolarEagle (3)

Previous in Blog: Pizza Delivery By Drone Later This Year (In NZL)   Next in Blog: Rosetta's Philae Spacecraft Found

Advertisement