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A Really Big Butterfly

Posted December 16, 2008 8:19 AM

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) plans to derive 20% of national electricity from wind power by 2030 got some University of Maryland researchers to researching. Their computer analysis of covering great swaths of land, such as Texas to central Canada, with massive wind farms showed a sort of butterfly effect: Lowering of wind speeds by 2-3 mps immediately downwind and disturbed air currents on a larger scale sufficient to steer storms. Pretty hypothetical, considering the scale of wind farms assumed. But could there be any validity to this forecast when one reviews the wind infrastructure needed to reach DOE's goal for 2030?

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Power-User

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: USA Soviet Socialist Dictatorship of Cook County& Illinois
Posts: 207
Good Answers: 15
#1

Re: A Really Big Butterfly

12/17/2008 9:44 AM

What in heavens name do you expect from government bureaucrats? To get funding they would sell their souls. Be prepared for the whup, whup ,whup, of the propellers across the country... another boondoggle..until, like all subsidized programs, they fall into disrepair and then you'll be looking at the debris spread across the country like a dead forest.

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Anonymous Poster
#2
In reply to #1

Re: A Really Big Butterfly

12/17/2008 10:10 AM

My probelm with this is that windmills from texas to canada are going to be in "tornado ally".

Anybody ever watch that show on the discovery channel called "Destroyed in Seconds" and see what happens when a windmill fails? Its spectacular in its catastrophe.

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Active Contributor

Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Winterswijk, Netherlands
Posts: 17
Good Answers: 2
#3

Re: A Really Big Butterfly

12/17/2008 12:50 PM

Why are people so negative about change??? Even in Holland were we have a history from windmills people are just thinking smal and forget the benefit we have had for a decade. They are just talking about the polution of the vieuw. Why? toerists are comming from all over to vieuw the old mills from 100 years old.

Please be positive, Building windmills brings new developments and jobs which are needed now!

Even more important, its a step to be independant from oil!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It prevents future funding from oil-states and (in some cases) the terrorisme behind them.

And lets not forget the CO2 reduction which important in prevention off new storms.

Just see a challange, to build windmills which can withstand big storms and sell this technology to other countries. create new jobs, market and ect.

Please see oppertunities in stead off problems.

Best regards, Harmen

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Participant

Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 1
#4

Re: A Really Big Butterfly

12/23/2008 10:37 AM

Well the solar power plants developed in the 70's and 80's are still chugging right along...

And if these windmills are right in tornado alley they might to some extent have a positive effect on discouraging the development of tornados.

Sound all good to me. Let's keep the jobs and the revenue and the clean enviorment here at home.

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Guru

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Sebring, Florida
Posts: 923
Good Answers: 25
#5

Re: A Really Big Butterfly

12/23/2008 10:54 PM

I was reviewing some of the past blogs this evening when I happened upon this one. A very interesting point is made when the issue is to create wind farms from somewhere in Texas to somewhere in Canada. From a practical stand point I must agree with the responses that point out the tornadoes. I have difficulty with the matter of creating a wind farm that is designed strong enough to with stand the power of swirling wind speeds that can excede 300 mph and remain cost effective to construct vs the anticipated performance. I suggest that the investors get a realistic performer in real dollars and sense from the promoters. I suspect that when the balance sheet is reviewed, there is no possible way that the concept of a wonderful green idea passes muster. I sincerely doubt that it will ever pay for it self with the limited production vs maintenance vs the costs to construct initially.

A second point is that there are many Natural Gas wells through out that region. Common sense applied, It seems that the construction of power plants reasonably close to the fuel source would be more economical, and buildings can be engineered and constructed to withstand the antisipated stormy weather.

Personally, I have no problem with the independant individual who desires to get off the grid, "I am one of you", but I do not support this idea, as it is in my opinion a total waste of my tax dollars.

I learned long ago that I could keep the junk pile in the corner of my shop at a minimum, just by thoroughly thinking through all my exotic ideas, "before" creating an example from real hardware.

TMF

__________________
The only problem with common sense, is that not very many people have it, or know how or when to use it.
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Anonymous Poster
#6
In reply to #5

Re: A Really Big Butterfly

12/24/2008 11:05 AM

I believe your theories of what may happen are just that, theories. Seeing first hand the operation of these farms in the Midwest, I think you are being hasty to say it isn't worth it. To start with tornadoes don't devastate every square mile of "tornado Alley". In Fact, even the most tornado ridden parts of Oklahoma have fragile structures (i.e. towers, grain bins, grain elevators) that have been standing for decades. Your fear of tornadoes rivals fears of a fictitious being such as the boogie man, omnipotent and all destroying. In a small community outside of Dodge City, KS there is a wind farm that has been operating for approximately 8 years. The astounding thing about this farm is that all studies pointed toward the fact it would take ~25 years to pay off the equipment. It took 6. The reason is that they produced more Kw than they calculated and were able to efficiently place this energy into the grid. It only takes 4 men to service the 60 some towers. The ivory towered thinkers were off in their efficiency calculations by 76%..... Food for thought.

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Guru

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Sebring, Florida
Posts: 923
Good Answers: 25
#7
In reply to #6

Re: A Really Big Butterfly

12/24/2008 12:04 PM

Good Morning, and a Happy Holiday wish to you and all who are close to you!

Regarding your theories vs my theroies! I live in the very middle of the State of Florida. Until just a couple of years ago we had not suffered the effects of having a hurricane pass through this area in 55 years, even though many have impacted this state during that extended period of time. I live on the lower end of what is called the Lake Wales Ridge. This ridge is the first portion of Florida to surface from the sea. I can travel east, west and south for just a few miles and notice a significant drop in elevation down to what is called the Florida Prairie. This elevation drop is from about 90 ft ASL to 12 ft ASL. It is believed by many that Hurricanes tend to take the path of least resistance and there fore avoid passing across this ridge. We who live here felt somewhat immune from direct hits from such winds.

That is until 2005 when 3 hurricanes violated this principal, and 2 of them scored a direct hit on the county I live in. We were with out power for a total of 16 days between the 2 direct hits.

Now suppose these wind farms are constructed where they are planned. There will be miles of high tension lines criss crossing the area that are subject to the destructive forces of said tornadoes. That area is also a known north south flyway for many migratory birds, and I have no way of predicting an impact on these animals but that would be an important issue to consider, and it is for certain that with that many miles of transmission wires criss crossing that great a swath of land from somewhere in Texas to somewhere in Canada that very "regular, damaging, wind impacts would occur. I can only imagine the effects of an ice storm big enough to spread from the panhandle of Oklahoma to some where in Canada damaging much of that great expanse of exposed high lines. Yes, I know that you already have some of those passing through the area. And when they are damaged they can be repaired fairly quickly. BUT: you must consider the impact of adding many thousands of miles of high lines to the area and the fact that the more that are there the more likely for major damage with a significant impact on the grid thatprovides electricity to communities many miles away from the predictable impact areas.

Offering a view from far away from that area, it somehow appears to resemble putting too many eggs in your only basket. Every time you drop it or just give it a hard bump you are going to break some. At some point in time you will have broken so many eggs that it is no longer profitable to harvest said eggs in that manner, and so it may go for filling tornado ally with all those wind generators and the supporting distribution grid.

TMF

__________________
The only problem with common sense, is that not very many people have it, or know how or when to use it.
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Power-User

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK S.Northants
Posts: 485
Good Answers: 19
#8

Re: A Really Big Butterfly

12/29/2008 4:03 AM

yes seems to be the answer built in to the question. Could steering storms be a good thing? You didn't say which way they were steered.

The principle seems to be a reverse butterfly effect where wings are being moved by the wind, with wind speeds being stepped down rather than building up.

This sounds like scare mongering, the only way to know more would be to see the report rather than trying to comment on the snippet you have given.

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Guru

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Sebring, Florida
Posts: 923
Good Answers: 25
#9
In reply to #8

Re: A Really Big Butterfly

12/31/2008 3:40 PM

This blog seems to have spilled over into the Energy path de'savu

TMF

__________________
The only problem with common sense, is that not very many people have it, or know how or when to use it.
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