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Will Elon Ever Accept Defeat?

03/05/2016 8:55 AM

his landing record is quite poor and millions above his initial projections

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#1

Re: will Elon ever except defeat?

03/05/2016 9:20 AM

As long as he's got $$ he'll keep it up.

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#2

Re: will Elon ever except defeat?

03/05/2016 9:21 AM

It must be harder than it looks!

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#3

Re: will Elon ever except defeat?

03/05/2016 9:21 AM

Landing on a barge with a rocket is a fantasy. When the Coast Guard performs a rescue with a helicopter a swimmer is winched while the helicopter hovers. The Coast Guard doesn't even try to land on a ship with a helicopter that can hover for hours, let alone a barge. While the earlier attempts were a safe method to allow failures to happen to prove this method, now that successful landings have been made on land this is just wasting rockets.

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#4

Re: will Elon ever except defeat?

03/05/2016 9:26 AM

I need to "accept" proof-Reading!

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#5

Re: will Elon ever except defeat?

03/05/2016 10:51 AM

"Rocket landed hard on the droneship. Didn't expect this one to work (v hot reentry), but next flight has a good chance."

https://twitter.com/elonmusk?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

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#6

Re: will Elon ever except defeat?

03/05/2016 10:52 AM

as far as being a traditional contractor Elon has proven he can deliver. last nights placement more than 300 KM into space supports that. as far as landing an intact rocket.....this design has been stretched too far.

my guess is he'll continue until his batting average climbs

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#7

Re: will Elon ever except defeat?

03/05/2016 2:58 PM

Most rocket launch sites use a trough underneath the rocket to direct the exhaust away from the launch platform to avoid buffetting. The landing barge SpaceX uses is a flat, solid platform. You can see on every landing attempt there is a lot of blowback of exhaust pushing the rocket sideways as it tries to land.

I don't understand why they aren't using an open, honeycombed platform that will allow the exhaust gases to pass through the actual landing surface, thus avoiding the fateful blowback.

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#8
In reply to #7

Re: will Elon ever except defeat?

03/05/2016 3:07 PM

good point. I was also pondering a deck mounted on gyros to counter the pitching seas.

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#9

Re: Will Elon Ever Except Defeat?

03/05/2016 4:06 PM

Well at his net worth spending a few million over on a project is about as much of a financial setback as most of us equate to going the family out to eat once a week Vs once every two weeks.

Not a major funding issue on the grand scale of things.

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#10
In reply to #9

Re: Will Elon Ever Except Defeat?

03/05/2016 4:35 PM

perhaps but those rockets are 60 million a piece. it's a harder sell to sell a new customer to put their multimillion dollar payload on a rocket that crashes all the time and the owner blows money as you suggest might turn a lot of people away.

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#11
In reply to #10

Re: Will Elon Ever Except Defeat?

03/05/2016 6:46 PM

Aren't they mostly crashing on the return trip not the take off or is there something I am missing here?

If I need something put into space I could care less if the delivery vehicle crashes on the return trip. It got my payload where I wanted it and that's what I paid for.

That and aren't most things shot into orbit worth several hundred million to several billion dollars which at that price range makes 60 million more not really a big deal.

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#12

Re: Will Elon Ever Accept Defeat?

03/06/2016 9:38 AM

I really don't understand the principle of returning a launch vehicle to earth in this manner. Sure you save on the cost of the vehicle but the cost and limitations on launch weight because of the extra fuel needed for the return trip, does this not hinder the whole idea? Until they find another form of propulsion , other then chemicals, I just don't see the advantage.

Okay I'm ready to be crucified for My thinking!

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#13
In reply to #12

Re: Will Elon Ever Accept Defeat?

03/06/2016 11:29 AM

The primary advantage I see is the thrust from the engine handles the deceleration and not an ablation heat shield that will get super hot. Also this permits a well controlled selection of where to land instead of the broad area of possible landing spots a high altitude parachute induces. Now why the last 100 feet (?) of elevation cannot be handled by a parachute if an ocean landing is mandatory, beats me.

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#17
In reply to #13

Re: Will Elon Ever Accept Defeat?

03/06/2016 1:18 PM

The shuttle did quite well at landing at a designated spot, True it was piloted by Humans but drones are also piloted by humans and they do quite well at landing at designated spots even from thousands of miles away and they are reused. Seems to Me these type of landings ( the retro rocket ) were best suited in Buck Rogers themes.

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#15
In reply to #12

Re: Will Elon Ever Accept Defeat?

03/06/2016 11:48 AM

you might find this interesting http://www.spacex.com/about/capabilities

its far cheaper as well as safer to land on a barge vs recovering stuff thats gone to Daveys Locker

the Air force isn't crazy about rockets returning near populated areas for obvious reasons. by landing on a barge a safe distance from shore the rocket can quickly be refurbished and put back in service.Elon has been bloodied by doing things differently. I still think he'll get it right and he'll lift many tons of stuff over and over again into a low orbit and perform final assembly there for bigger missions

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#16
In reply to #15

Re: Will Elon Ever Accept Defeat?

03/06/2016 11:53 AM

There are already many under populated areas of the US, too.

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#14

Re: Will Elon Ever Accept Defeat?

03/06/2016 11:36 AM

There is one thing I'm not sure they've proven or tried. Can one of these rockets stand upright on a barge at sea without any rocket thrust or lashings? It would be ironic if just the normal swells at sea causes a rocket to topple.

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#18

Re: Will Elon Ever Accept Defeat?

03/06/2016 5:41 PM

Who knows?

We might even reach the moon someday.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NlXG0REiVzE

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#19
In reply to #18

Re: Will Elon Ever Accept Defeat?

03/06/2016 5:48 PM

dork

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#20

Re: Will Elon Ever Accept Defeat?

03/07/2016 7:35 AM

It is admirable to see how he chases his dreams.

Any other traditional MBA schooled manager would never have started his projects. Return on investment is way over 6 months, there are sufficient car manufacturers that run on low efficiencies, ...

A rocket thruster is a nice piece of engineering, highly precise and tuned. Being able to reuse these very expensive parts, even partly is a price worth paying the hard way.

Not landing on land is a necessity: safety requirements have moved these lauches to the edges of the continent, it would require too much energy to make the rocket come back as they did for the single successfull event.

I would say: Go Elon Go

If you need to set up an engineering team in Europe, let me know.

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#21

Re: Will Elon Ever Accept Defeat?

03/07/2016 9:48 AM

Why on earth would he do that?

(there's probably a reason why SpaceX is still privately held eh?)

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