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Fredski
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Water or Land?

10/16/2017 4:05 PM

which will it hit?

http://bgr.com/2017/10/16/china-space-station-falling-from-space/
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terrapin
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#1

Re: water or land?

10/16/2017 4:16 PM

Odds are in the water, but no one knows for sure. Supposedly, we will have a couple hours warning which is kind of scary.
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James Stewart
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#2

Re: water or land?

10/16/2017 4:16 PM

It is just one, so it will be by land.

Two if by sea.

If it lands in wifey's chambers, I hope I am out playing highwayman.

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Fredski
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#3
In reply to #2

Re: water or land?

10/16/2017 4:21 PM

I'm kinda hoping for North Korea

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James Stewart
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#4
In reply to #3

Re: water or land?

10/16/2017 4:40 PM

Nah, they will get mad, and launch a mini-missile at Peking, and Peking Duck.

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JPool
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#5

Re: water or land?

10/16/2017 5:19 PM

There is an almost a 71% chance it will hit water, about a 29% chance it will hit land. Seeing as there is a 1.8213664783434577e-11% chance of it hitting my house, knowing my luck, it's hitting my house....

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James Stewart
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#10
In reply to #5

Re: water or land?

10/17/2017 9:33 AM

Gotta love that kind of logic. Not if it hits mine first...

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JPool
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#22
In reply to #10

Re: water or land?

10/17/2017 5:50 PM

Seeing as Rixter says anyone above 42 degrees is safe, I am at 42.5 degrees, it's all on you...

Send me a chunk, please.....

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James Stewart
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#24
In reply to #22

Re: water or land?

10/18/2017 10:46 AM

You may not have a chunk of my noggin, if indeed this is the intended point of contact.

Otherwise, will be happy to clean out my backyard (we have five dogs), and send all chunks located.

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Rixter
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#6

Re: water or land?

10/16/2017 7:39 PM

Well, to start with, the odds of getting injured by a piece of the space station are about the same as winning two lottery jackpots in the same day. But I'm sure there are people worrying about it, when there are much more likely events to worry about.

The space station orbit inclination is about 42 degrees. So if you live north of 42N latitude or south of 42S, you are safe. The plot below shows the latitude versus time for a single orbit.

If the orbit is divided into 1 million time segments, you can generate a histogram for degrees latitude. The number of segments in each degree latitude equals parts per million probability that the space station will fall in that degree latitude.

Chances are much higher that it will fall close to +/- 42 degrees than other latitudes because it spends more time there.

It's more realistic if you divide by the number of square miles at each degree latitude.

Admitted, there will probably be multiple pieces, but the probablity per square mile is still very low.

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Fredski
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#7
In reply to #6

Re: water or land?

10/16/2017 7:48 PM

Skylab remnants
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James Stewart
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#11
In reply to #7

Re: water or land?

10/17/2017 9:35 AM

So the toilet is the only thing that lasted?

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Casper71
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#23
In reply to #11

Re: water or land?

10/17/2017 10:16 PM

That's why they cost $600.

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wmerryall
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#9
In reply to #6

Re: water or land?

10/17/2017 8:16 AM

Our house is at 41 degrees. A Maxwell Smart quote comes to mind.

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James Stewart
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#12
In reply to #9

Re: water or land?

10/17/2017 9:35 AM

...what could possibly go wrong?

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wmerryall
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#13
In reply to #12

Re: water or land?

10/17/2017 9:39 AM

"Missed it by that much".

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James Stewart
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#14
In reply to #13

Re: water or land?

10/17/2017 9:41 AM

Now why couldn't I remember - ..."missed it by that much". It was a great TV show, learned all my bag of tricks from it.

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Rixter
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#15
In reply to #6

Re: water or land?

10/17/2017 10:57 AM

To answer the original question, water or land, I suppose you can take each latitude from the histogram and trace on a map or globe the ratio of land and water at that latitude. Maybe there's a database somewhere, I haven't looked.

Weight the land/water ratio by the latitude probability to get your final answer.
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Rixter
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#20
In reply to #15

Re: water or land?

10/17/2017 3:09 PM

OK, somebody's already done it:

The chance of the satellite hitting land is (42 deg inclination) is 26.2%.

http://img.slate.com/features/badastronomy_archive/files/2012/04/satreentry_overwaterstats.png
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Randall
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#21
In reply to #20

Re: water or land?

10/17/2017 3:12 PM

"Wot, no satellite?"

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Randall
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#8

Re: Water or Land?

10/17/2017 6:00 AM

Why don't we divide up the earth into equal segments and take bets like "cow pie bingo".

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Jpfalt
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#16

Re: Water or Land?

10/17/2017 11:19 AM

The answer is yes. It will hit water or land.
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James Stewart
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#17
In reply to #16

Re: Water or Land?

10/17/2017 11:43 AM

By golly, I think he's got it, that will be where it will be.

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tonyhemet
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#18

Re: Water or Land?

10/17/2017 12:25 PM

1. Bookies in Vegas taking bets.

2. Lottery officials selling tickets for " Super Station ".

3. Super bowl taking second place to this office pool.

4 . Last month kids were looking for Pokemon, next month kids will be looking for Chinaman.
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adreasler
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#19
In reply to #18

Re: Water or Land?

10/17/2017 1:20 PM

"1. Bookies in Vegas taking bets."

Let's see what's got the best odds aka lowest payoff. If anyone can work out the probabilities for unprecedented events, it's Vegas bookies, especially when they're working as a group; 'wisdom of the crowd' and all that.

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adreasler (1); Casper71 (1); Fredski (2); James Stewart (8); Jpfalt (1); JPool (2); Randall (2); Rixter (3); terrapin (1); tonyhemet (1); wmerryall (2)

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