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Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/23/2020 5:43 PM

...and how accurate are the tests being given....and what types of tests are on the horizon....

Turns out you probably have immunity from reinfection if you have had covid19....the test they give is only about 70% accurate....the most accurate test (90%) is for antibodies if you have had covid19....

This is good news, if it proves true, that means the more people that recover in the population the harder it is for the virus to spread....

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#1

Re: Do you get Immunity after infection with covid19

03/23/2020 8:29 PM

This "Coronavirus: A visual guide to the pandemic" shows that Italy's daily confirmed deaths from the virus have dropped for two consecutive days. That's hopeful news.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105

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#3
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Re: Do you get Immunity after infection with covid19

03/23/2020 10:00 PM

This might be due to improved care and medical advances, I understand China shipped tons of plasma from recovered corona victims, and there are several trials of different medications underway....You wouldn't expect the cases ending in death to decline while new cases are still increasing...Hopefully new cases are about to peak or are peaking now, and the new medical procedures will continue to save lives....

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

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#11
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Re: Do you get Immunity after infection with covid19

03/25/2020 5:35 AM

That graph showing how CV has spread on a daily basis is awesome.

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#2

Re: Do you get Immunity after infection with covid19

03/23/2020 9:33 PM

I think it's what they call "herd immunity". As more Susceptible (S) individuals, blue, transition to Recovered (R) individuals, red, the virus eventually starves to death. Unfortunately, they have to transition through the Infected (I) compartment, green.

Herd immunity doesn't require 100 percent of the population to be immune. Once the number of Susceptible falls and the Recovered rises so that the effective reproductive rate, Reff, (the average number an infected person infects - black curve below) falls below 1.0, the number of Infected starts to fall off as more people recover than get sick. When this happens the virus starts to die out.

Opinion is divided on whether herd immunity will stop the virus. Only a very tiny proportion of the population has been tested due to a scarcity of test kits, and this sample is not representative but those that are ill, a biased sample. The "Best Case Scenario" (and I don't think it likely, but we could hope) would be if the infection rate were much higher than is now thought and that the majority had mild symptoms. We would then reach "herd immunity", and if the most susceptible (us old folk) practiced social distancing, perhaps we could minimize fatalities.

The best way to achieve herd immunity, of course, is to develop a vaccine and thus avoid that nasty Infected compartment. In the interim, we can drive down the reproductive rate, Reff, by practicing "social distancing".

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#8
In reply to #2

Re: Do you get Immunity after infection with covid19

03/25/2020 1:18 AM

"The "Best Case Scenario" (and I don't think it likely, but we could hope) would be if the infection rate were much higher than is now thought and that the majority had mild symptoms."WOW !!!!!

This is an amazing conclusion of an otherwise relatively informative article. It seems that logic has gone out of the door. If you have qualified the statement by saying "...over the next 10 years.." then maybe I could swallow it bit easier. Still, suggesting that spreading infections should be encouraged/accelerated instead of slow down and eradicate is wrong on sooo many fronts...

According to WHO, 80% of cases are mild and 20% are severe. The mortality rate is +-3% (according to Trump's "hunch" it is somewhat below 1%....., obviously he is a specialist in the field and a global pool of doctors are stupid??). Or maybe this is all fake news and conspiracy of leftist propaganda machine...

https://time.com/5798168/coronavirus-mortality-rate/

So, if I understood you correctly, 20% of the American population should get severe symptoms of the infection (+-66 million), this will overwhelm the health sector and the hope of limiting the infection will go out of the window. With such a large number of infected people, there is no way that strict protocols could be followed, doctors and nurses will get sick and you will have to take care of your sick family members, again, people that are not trained or equipped will have to take care of sick further spreading the infection. The current mortality rate is a result of strict protocols that are aimed at reducing the spreading of the infection and with health sector relatively able to manage. This will all go out of the window in the case of a massive spread of the virus.

The current mortality rate in the USA is +-2.8 million per annum.

Is the USA able to properly care and dispose of an additional 10 million dead (+-3% of the population)?

Do you think that social distancing of the minority of the population while the majority is acting as if nothing is going on, is sufficient to stop the infections? Are you aware that symptoms of infection could take up to 14 days to present itself? How many people can be infected in that time period?

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#9
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Re: Do you get Immunity after infection with covid19

03/25/2020 4:29 AM

mike, I think you misunderstood Rixter, he was just explaining the mathematics involved, not suggesting anything....

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#15
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Re: Do you get Immunity after infection with covid19

03/25/2020 8:11 AM

I do not think he is suggesting we ramp up infections at all. I think he is pointing out there is a decent possibility that the infection rate has been grossly underestimated (not so outlandish to imagine) and that we are, therefore, much closer to herd immunity than we think...

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#4

Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/24/2020 8:35 AM

Thanks for sharing these videos SolarEagle. I find them to be credible and not a violation of CR4's 'medical/prescription advice' rules.

That said, at this time I would encourage our audience to not draw conclusions about reinfection. The jury is still out on if reinfection is possible, or if the many 'reinfection' cases were actually testing errors.

Cold coronaviruses are very much reinfectious.

Original SARS patients had a short duration of immunity after recovery.

I offer these not to provoke, but to provide balance.

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#5
In reply to #4

Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/24/2020 1:21 PM

Thanks Hush. From your second link:

"Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection >3 years after initial exposure."

I would be very happy at this point if everybody was immune from Covid-19 for 3 years.

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#6

Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/24/2020 11:32 PM

Just this evening my wife and I were talking about this. Odd pillow talk – she is a very experienced laboratory technologist, well learned in these things. I’m just a screwdriver holding repairer of analyzers in many hospital laboratories.

She recalls I had major coughing spells in January – I just recall a runny nose and sinus congestion. This was well after every spouse (just my one and only), our 3 kids (with their spouses) and 3 grandchildren had their run and coughs and colds.

She wonders if I had this nasty bug way back then. Now her thoughts turned to anti-body testing. If you have exposed yourself to anything, your body will build a defense, an anti-body. This can be tested.

Rough numbers – if now 300,000 are tested confirmed WITH covid and 1,000 die.

What if in a couple weeks/months we can test 300,000,000 that have anti-bodies (they have been exposed – not sickened) and still 1,000 have died.

Would this change anyone’s mind (depends……..)

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#12
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Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/25/2020 5:44 AM

You make a good point, however I believe the POTUS said that a large proportion of people who are tested, think they have it, when it's just a flu.

It would be very positive if even 10% of our population has the antibody; they were infected and recovered.

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#7

Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/25/2020 12:40 AM

Well, the contrary opinion (from an ER doc that's a personal friend) is that we *don't* build up an immunity to this one, and we'll get a 2nd wave this winter. You pick your version to guide your actions; I know which I've picked....

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#13
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Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/25/2020 5:47 AM

I've heard the same thing from a few doctors I know. None of them are immunologists, so they aren't experts in the field, but being a medical doctor does give them credibility when discussing health and how our body functions.

I'm on the fence. I like what Solar posted and it makes sense to me, however we don't have a way to test. At least for now.

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#16
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Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/25/2020 8:32 AM

Well there are antibodies produced which means we have some immunity, the question is how long it lasts in my mind, and I think it will vary from person to person, It seems common sense to me that the longer and more serious your infection was the more antibodies that will be produced, so those with no symptoms perhaps have little immunity, but really don't need it, and those who almost died will have the most immunity...

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#10

Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/25/2020 5:31 AM

Hi Solar,

Wow, that's a great explanation of the testing being done, new more accurate tests and the chance of recurrence.

The video helped me understand a lot more about CV.

Thanks for sharing!

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#14
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Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/25/2020 5:56 AM

Thank you for the feedback...and thanks to Dr Seheult for all the info...

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#17

Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/25/2020 9:44 AM

So many talking heads and so many of them are just plain wrong. Not saying this is one, but there is nothing but circumstantial and anecdotal evidence to make such assumptions either. (we already had one die that is a direct result of the...disinformation)

ADMIN note: Content redacted

This post has been revised to eliminate political commentary.

Right now the biggest thing is getting a handle on it by slowing the infection rate and helping those infected.

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#19
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Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/25/2020 6:26 PM

If you're talking about the guy (and his wife) that took the "fish tank cleaner", then you need to give the WHOLE story. That wasn't the result of ...disinformation.

THAT was the result of STUPIDITY! And we all know what is said about stupid.

Not to mention, of course, what is said about the proof that comes out when someone opens their mouth (or, in this case) puts fingers to a keyboard.

Just sayin,

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#24
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Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/26/2020 10:25 AM

The whole story is he followed the advice of the president that was criminally wrong. You really don't get it do you?

The office of the president has tremendous weight.

The words, spoken from the bully pulpit have changed the world in more cases than I can count.

The leadership of the American president has saved millions of lives, and at times cost millions.

It is a very powerful position that should never be given to the incompetent or a person who does not respect its power and its place in history because of the damage it does to America and the world.

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#25
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Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/26/2020 3:12 PM

Since you close your posts with: "Knowing is the end result of learning, not believing." It beggars the question, why don't you live by it?

You BELIEVE that President Trump is wrong, but you don't KNOW he is wrong! You drank the kool-aide and now you're literally deathly sick with TDS and it is obviously killing you. You need help so badly, but you have to recognize you're sick; so, you probably won't get it. You're spreading your infection (or at least trying to) to the rest of the world and you should be quarantined as, IMHO, your TDS is worse than this Wuhan Virus and could likely kill more than the virus.

Get help! Soon!

Just sayin',

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#26
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Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/26/2020 3:48 PM

Actually, I do KNOW he's wrong because I listen to the experts. WHO CDC NIH etc all say he is. You should really try it. I mean since you're on this site you might be an engineer in which case you know numbers don't lie but people do. Facts = numbers. Be smarter not louder.

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#28
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Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/26/2020 5:41 PM

Here, have some knowledge, its free.

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/barack-obama-comments-steph-currys-coronavirus-qa-dr-fauci

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#30
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Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/27/2020 12:27 AM

What's the story about the "fish tank cleaner"?

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#32
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Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/27/2020 6:33 AM

A man in Arizona I think (it could have been another state, but it was in the Southwest) and his wife consumed a compound (used and marketed for cleaning fish aquariums) that had a name similar to, or contained another element sounding similar to, "Chloroquine" and it killed him (and, last heard, his wife is deathly ill from it). This happened a day or two after President Trump first mentioned the Chloroquinine derivative (used all over the world to both prevent and treat malaria (at least 1-1/2 weeks after the discussion on this forum began)) as an already FDA approved (for human consumption) drug that could very possibly be used as a cure for the Wuhan virus. The President gave good information but not all people actually listen to what they hear.

Just sayin',

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#33
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Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/29/2020 11:13 PM

I didn't hear about that story. Wow, that's very sad. I've learned that many (if not the majority) of people don't listen very well and they do things they're not suppose to. Or they re-tell a story and it gets changed as it goes from person to person. There's virtually no truth/fact in the story, but it keeps getting passed on.

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#18

Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/25/2020 5:39 PM

Last night, I had a conversation with my better half about CV. Something very interesting came up that fits this thread.

In the movies, they're always looking for the person who is immune to a virus. Something in their natural make up gives their body a way to fight the virus. So, with CV, shouldn't there be a person or group of people who has something in their system that fights it off. Like in the video from Solar, the V shaped key might be a natural immunity that someone has. If we can find the key, then can't we find the cure? Or am I missing something?

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#20
In reply to #18

Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/25/2020 7:18 PM

Well the plasma from survivors should have some antibodies, so I don't know how closely the movie version follows real life, but I think this is the best bet....the caveat is the donor must be screened for other diseases so no unintended infections occur from other pathogens that might be present in the blood of donors....You can donate plasma once a month....one donor can help an average of 2 of the seriously infected per month, depending of course on the level of, or existence of, antibodies....

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#21
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Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/25/2020 9:58 PM

In fact they are using this strategy for critically ill patients here in the US with good results....They are taking plasma from recovered patients and they do have antibodies and it is working...

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#22
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Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/26/2020 12:03 AM

Discussed again with my wife - not a doctor, but very well experienced laboratorian - she tells me anyone exposed to any virus will develop antibodies.

Sorry to argue/contradict any previous doctor friends comments.

I think this would be part of - any action gets a reaction......

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#23
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Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/26/2020 10:19 AM

true, since corona virus are actually fairly common you already have some antibodies to the general 'family'. The thing about virus, just like humans, no two are alike. They may be from the corona group but their infection mechanism is different. Also their defensive measure will vary meaning what works on that corona is useless on this corona. And then we have that fun added value feature, mutation.

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#27

Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/26/2020 4:39 PM

Back to the original question, looks like the Chinese are not thinking so.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/destinations/2020/03/26/china-temporarily-bans-foreign-nationals-due-coronavirus/2918901001/

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#29
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Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/26/2020 11:51 PM

This is only common sense, not everybody in China was exposed to the covid19 virus, so the vast majority of the population is still vulnerable....Your logic is biased, flawed, and foolish...Why would they expose their population to the covid19 virus after all the effort to contain it in the first place....makes no sense...

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#31
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Re: Do You Get Immunity After Infection with Covid19

03/27/2020 12:38 AM

The majority of the people in China were not exposed - it was centered in Wuhan. I'm not sure how they didn't have huge outbreaks in other cities, but we're told they didn't.

The Chinese government also believes that the majority of the population was not exposed, therefore they don't have immunity. That's why they have travel bans.

I did speak to an alien the other day. It told me that CV was a special ops program, where Jack Ryan met with Agent J and Agent K - they made a secret pact with Jimmy Hoffa (he's not dead) and L Ron Hubbard - it was to destroy the US via an economic war with China. Putin is in on it too, but we have to be careful, because eyes are watching ...

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