Where Have All the Hurricanes Gone?

SE,

I do not see the connection between your question of where the hurricanes have gone and the cited research. I strongly suspect the atmosphere is warming up, but the ocean surface is also heating up, so I can expect the continuation of hurricanes. Yes, there will be seasonal variations, but perhaps we could be seeing an increase if the oceanic warming is greater than the atmospheric, particularly since the quantity of available heat in the ocean is greater than the ability of the atmosphere to sink the heat.

Perhaps you can educate me.

--JMM

We seem to be experiencing a trade wind inversion...at the same time the winds are forcing the would be tropical depressions toward the equator, where they cannot form due to lack of coriolis effect, must be +5° latitude to form...

The trade wind inversion produces a layer of warm temperatures and dryness in the mid levels of the atmosphere due to the sinking and adiabatic warming of the mid-level air. Explanation:

• Trade wind inversion: A weather phenomenon where the temperature increases with height in the atmosphere, typically occurring in regions with trade winds.
• Sinking air: In a trade wind inversion, air from higher altitudes sinks down, causing compression and warming as it descends.
• Adiabatic warming: This is the process where air heats up as it sinks and compresses, without any external heat source added.

Key points about trade wind inversions:

• Stability: This inversion creates a stable layer in the atmosphere, limiting the vertical movement of air and inhibiting the development of deep convective clouds.
• Dry conditions: As the air sinks, it becomes drier due to the lack of moisture rising from below.
• Impact on weather: Trade wind inversions can significantly influence weather patterns, especially in tropical regions, by affecting cloud formation and rainfall.
• https://www.savannahnow.com/story/weather/2017/09/09/how-does-hurricane-form/13863492007/

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/hurricane-atlantic-tropical-storm-forecast-weather

No hurricanes ...!!!

Wow. an updating storm map...how cool is that...

We're now up to the tropical storm and predicted to become a hurricane, Milton. Are you happy now?

..."La Niña is favored to emerge during September-November (71% chance) and persist through January-March 2025. Page 24. IRI Pacific Niño 3.4. SST ..."...

Blue girl bad....!

https://www.climate.gov/enso

Yikes....!

Yep. My wife, an insurance adjuster left New Port Richey early today for a safer spot in Georgia to park our RV while waiting for Uncle Milty to pass so she can go back and continue helping folks get their claims in for Helene. This double whammy is going to suck for a lot of people.

At least from what I've heard, the hurricane will be coming ashore during low tide this time, so there's that...It looks like the eye is going to pass right over me, but I'm on the east coast side, so hopefully it has petered out by the time it gets here.... I don't anticipate any problems I can't handle, we have a metal roof, our utilities are underground, and we are at a high elevation...

Currently, it appears that the storm has spread out some (it is huge) and wind shear with colder air may have dampened the storm thankfully to a Cat 3, but still nothing to be trifled with. People made the right choice to get out of dodge. I'm sure coastal flooding is going to ruin many peoples' lives.

Looks like Milty jogged north enough for us to miss the brunt of the storm, and obviously some wind shear has taken place weakening the storm, that and some dry cooler air from the north being sucked into the vortex has dried up the rain on the south side...still having some near hurricane strength gusts and blustery winds overall...electric has blinked off a few times but only momentarily....We had a lot of tornadoes around the area for a time today earlier...It looks like the eye, or what's left of it, is over Orlando about now, but it's hard to tell it looks like the storm is getting ripped apart by the wind shear...

Glad to hear that you weathered the storm without significant issues.

ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions....

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Future increase in extreme El Niño supported by past glacial changes

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07984-y

Unfortunately, FEMA must have read that same report. Let’s go with that’s the reason why FEMA reprogramed their disaster aid budget and doesn’t have the money for actual disaster aid.

when it comes to weather, one can be better off waiting and looking out the window to see if it’s raining.

I picked the wrong profession. I should have been a meteorologist.

FEMA has the money...they probably won't have anything left after this though...

..."The most recent report, which was published on Sept. 12, shows the Disaster Relief Fund had around $3.4 billion in it, as of Aug. 31.

Congress recently replenished a key source of FEMA’s response efforts, providing $20 billion for the agency’s disaster relief fund as part of a short-term government spending bill to fund the government through Dec. 20. The bill also gave FEMA flexibility to draw on the money more quickly as needed."....

That bill was passed Sept 27...

https://www.verifythis.com/article/news/verify/money-verify/fema-running-low-disaster-money-but-not-because-funds-went-to-housing-undocumented-migrants/536-be598488-368b-4c75-a85a-0c354b29dd26

What’s upsetting is, they can find the money to transport the illegals in the middle of the night.

As far as 3.4 billion, people are dying. While the military and national guards are stand by and waiting for orders. For the national guard, that has to come from the states governors as I understand it based on the medias bs peaceful demonstrations in 2020

Anyways FEMA knew this was happening days before landfall. And FEMA was MIA, with the spin, everyone is happy.

but the volunteers, that are getting things done with personal helicopters, or businesses transport at cost. To be stopped because of a pissing contest.

I said this before, all in all, there are people that got what they wanted deserve. Unfortunately others are paying for it with their lives. And it’s the same ones that were crying about COVID response because they didn’t have a vaccine basically developed and delivered on their doorstep.

A graph comparing hurricane activity with El Niño and La Niña influence would typically show a clear trend where hurricane activity is generally higher during La Niña periods and lower during El Niño events; this is because La Niña conditions often create favorable atmospheric conditions for hurricane development, while El Niño tends to suppress hurricane formation due to increased wind shear in the tropical Atlantic.

The current status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern is ENSO-neutral, but there is a possibility of La Niña developing in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024. This is indicated by the La Niña Watch, which is based on climate model forecasts and recent atmospheric and oceanic conditions

Red boy good, Blue girl bad....

Arctic Ozone Hits Record High

..."As for what could have caused the unusual stratospheric weather, the authors looked at a variety of factors without finding a clear answer. The effect of climate change, for example, is difficult to quantify. “There might be a climate factor here, but it’s not obvious,” said Newman. With respect to larger atmospheric patterns such as El Niño and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation: “Possibly, but the contribution is relatively small.”

In addition to stratospheric weather, which is the primary determinant of Arctic ozone levels, the authors think longer-term trends likely bumped ozone concentrations to record highs. Since the Montreal Protocol phased out production of ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and halons in 1987, ozone levels have been slowly recovering. As such, the high March 2024 levels were within the authors’ expectations: the Goddard chemistry–climate model, GEOSCCM, showed a 1-in-8 chance of a record high by 2025, and more records are anticipated in the future. However, because CFCs persist in the atmosphere for decades, average Arctic ozone is not expected to return to 1980 levels until about 2045, they note.

Higher greenhouse gas concentrations in the stratosphere also accelerate ozone recovery. “This record was likely a result of decreased ozone-depleting substances and increased greenhouse gases. Otherwise, it would have been just a high year and not a record,” said Newman. “I call this year a harbinger of the future.”"...

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/153363/arctic-ozone-hits-record-high

Great thread. Lots of good information, and I congratulate you for good thinking.

I award you the thinking cap award.

Well we're all pretty excited here....

Ernesto went to Bermuda.

....and Francine is headed for Louisiana...

I heard that we got that nice gap in the early part of the season, at least in part due to the Saharan Air Layer. Another weird feature of Atlantic weather which, two years ago I'd never heard of. But there it is. Contributed to conditions not favorable to cyclone formation.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/saharan-air-layer/

Oscar and Nadine out there now.

Oscar seems to be so tiny, it's almost like a 'personal hurricane' if it hits you. (the strongest winds are or were only a 20 km band, when I read about it this afternoon).

It's cooled down quite a bit now, we are in the low 70's nights and low 80's during the day, the second week in October usually is when the temps begin to drop, so rare for any major storms to form...Oscar will probably get wind shear and fade out soon....Nadine looks even weaker...Looking at the Sahara dust migration reminds me of the Oklahoma dust bowl back in the 30's....

Maybe one day we will be able to remediate the Sahara...

The Great Green Wall is a project to restore the land in the Sahel region of Africa and prevent the Sahara Desert from expanding:

I'm glad to hear you're on the other side of it... Florida has certainly had its share of the seasonal pounding this year!

Re Sahara, there's this other thing, the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone this season is further north than usual, consequently a rare amount of rain in the desert. The position of the ITCZ evidently affects where the hurricanes form in the Atlantic basin as well.

https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/weather/rain-in-the-sahara-could-be-connected-to-a-calmer-atlantic-hurricane-season

We haven't had any landfall or direct hit this season here, so far, and as you said it's getting late for anything monstrous, especially for us further north. It does seem like the Gulf got more than its share. Not one storm has taken the typical Eastern Seaboard type track. (I guess I shouldn't say that! too early.)