Below is a real situation, but the paradigm for decisions is more important.
Two new ceiling light fixtures were installed 10 months ago. Lights were used less than 2 hours daily, but they are turned on and off 3 cycles/day. The fixtures each hold 2 concentric circular fluorescent bulbs, 4 prongs per bulb. One fixture's bulbs just died; the bulbs are COSTLY. The bulbs may have a short service life, or the initial bulbs may be inferior. The replacement bulbs claim 4 years (6 hours/day).
I have 2 working fixtures, since I replaced the defective bulbs. (1) Should I buy different fixtures? The alternative is using the current fixtures until their true service life is learned. Can I "Google" to learn reliable information about light fixtures?
A = likelihood of Russ (electrician & friend) having the time to install new fixtures. If I do not buy new fixtures ahead of time, I might have to pay a second person $100 and have a dark room for a month.
B = likelihood my current fixtures have a short service life.
C = cost of the replacement fixtures ($30 for two).
D = cost of fluorescent bulbs ($13 for each current fixture; $1 or $2 in new fixtures).
Assume I am not "risk adverse" (For example, those who won't bet the family farm regardless of odds); nor am I "risk seeking" (For example, those who participate in lotteries with lousy odds).
Logic, intuition, emotions and counsel have limits. The Bible has almost nobody's full name in it. Decision-making applications are endless. Here are a few:
Two job offers, and the more interesting job has 25%–75% chance of long term funding. The less interesting job has "certain" long term funding. You have no idea where to go for wise counsel. You are 50 years old.
Two job offers (You are 23 years old). Your father advises you to take the job he correctly mentions you are less interested in.
Asking a woman for a date (I am a man) without her being beyond the acquantance level of familiarity.
Good Answers:
"Almost" Good Answers: