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Anonymous Poster #1

TV Special: The China Question

12/30/2011 6:01 PM

I just got through watching a "news" special on CNBC entitled, "The China Question." I found it thought-provoking, not because new ideas or perspectives were discussed, but just the way it was put together. I am posting this as a heads-up for anyone interested in the "question of China." The show will re-air on Sunday, the 1st at 2 p.m. EST. It is a 2-hour time slot with commercials. I know most people will be either eating or watching football, basketball, or all the above. But maybe some will be interested enough to tape it and watch it later. I understand that 2 hours in today's world is precious to most people. If you tape it and skip commercials it will be ~1½ hours. It does a good job of engaging the mind about this oft discussed and timely topic. For me, the time was not a waste. Your results may vary. (I was affected enough to post this during MY "off" time.)

I don't even know if there is much to say after watching it, so I don't necessarily expect anyone who does watch it to say much. But, when it's done, there is a restlessness... a feeling like you need to do something. Like the journalist who made the piece, you're not sure what it is. You just know it (the question) shouldn't be ignored.

It is available from Amazon.com, but I wouldn't pay this much to see it and I don't know who would. I was hoping it would be available for viewing at CNBC's website, but I can't find it in their video library. So, if you are curious, find a way to tape it or watch it. Like all satellite programming it will be repeated some day, you just probably won't know when.

(I'm usually behind any participation on CR4 because if I'm not at work I don't visit the forum. And my "Digest" is always a day late, presumably because of workplace servers. So if anyone here does watch and make comments, it will be Jan. 2 before I check on this thread.)

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#1

Re: TV Special: The China Question

12/30/2011 7:11 PM

I'll try to watch it. But, I'm going to say ahead of time, that anyone that still thinks that China is a question, is a day late, and about $15,000,000,000,000 short.

Yeah............................that's trillion.

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#2

Re: TV Special: The China Question

12/30/2011 8:13 PM

The 1,339,724,852 800# gorillas have cars now, and new apartments and are listening to MP-3 players while choking on the fumes of the coal fired generators that feed their new habits and keep the lights on.

What is there to watch?

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#3
In reply to #2

Re: TV Special: The China Question

12/30/2011 8:38 PM

That's not very nice.

If we're borrowing money from gorillas to finance our future..............what does that make us?

We also are selling them the coal.

Sometimes the mirror is the ugliest thing you want to see. Reality sucks.

Happy New Year buddy!!!!!!

Glad to see that have no plans of not being an a$$hole. Me either.

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#5
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

12/30/2011 9:12 PM

We're $luts, we need to admit that, right off. Walmart has awakened a "sleeping giant" to borrow a phrase from the Japanese. Drunk with wealth, China will consume us all if we're not careful.

While I desperately want to yell at the top of my keyboard about such idiocy as "which is the highest mountain in india?" Or, "I need info on lock rotor amps" and other stupid retarded useless insulting inane inquiries, I'm holding back, some.

I'd offer some retort about the fact that next year can't possibly be worse than 2011, but I'm afraid the gods might prove me wrong.

Have a good holiday and don't remind me that we're already beholden to them for our existence.

Best of the new year to you and your family.

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#6
In reply to #3

Re: TV Special: The China Question

12/30/2011 9:16 PM

Karamat

Not that he isn't capable of being ...let's say direct

1,339,724,852 .............800# gorillas have cars now,

800 pound gorilla is an expression for things not discussed but obvious

'The 800 pound gorilla in the room' is the expression

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#7
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

12/30/2011 9:33 PM

Oh, I get it now.

I'm terrible at understanding inferences.

I'm also a little slow.

Lyn will vouch for it.

I should probably just unplug my computer until Monday.......................but I won't.

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#8
In reply to #7

Re: TV Special: The China Question

12/30/2011 9:38 PM

No apologies

I had to look three times

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#9
In reply to #7

Re: TV Special: The China Question

12/30/2011 10:52 PM

Also the 15 trillion - as communicated - has another hidden 198 trillion. That is for some episodes later.

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#4
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

12/30/2011 9:02 PM

I will say, that you have kind of made my point better than I have.

Here we are, the great Europeans and Americans. We have enjoyed prosperity beyond imagination. The rest of the world aspires to be just like us..............................................and guess what? You can't.

Why?

Because our latest invention is global warming.

Sorry............................we already used up all of the good times that fossil fuel provides. It's too late for you. Get your energy from the sun, wind and water.

Why?

Because we say so..........................and WE have decided that it's time to save the planet.

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#10
In reply to #2

Re: TV Special: The China Question

12/31/2011 11:05 AM

I'm gonna apologize anyway. Sorry about that Lyn.

I ran your comment through my handy dandy Jack Daniels post filter, and it came out sounding a lot different than what you were saying.

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#11
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

12/31/2011 11:22 AM

Please...... No offense taken. I know you too well to be offended by anything you say.

Let's take another animal analogy: That of the wild stud horse. (The USA)

He reigns over his herd and has all the women at his beck and call. Then, eventually, he gets older, weaker and slower and he can no longer run off the competition for his harem and is eventually deposed, left with nothing but a solitary life. (The USA, again)

We're on the verge of becoming a has-been world power and there's not much we can do about it, given the goals of those who are really in power here. (and I not talking about Obama)

Happy New Year.

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#12
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

12/31/2011 11:39 AM

Yeah. Things are going to get interesting. And probably not in a good way. The shifts that are taking place are bigger than Obama, or any other President, could single handedly put a stop to. We are contributing to our own demise though, by continuing to rack up this debt. It's my single biggest worry for this country.

Happy New Year to you too.

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#13
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

12/31/2011 11:52 AM

The last president to tackle debt during a recession was Hoover - that went well.

And parallels between national debt and personal debt are poor at best, just not the same beasts.

Rather than offer either 'sides' opinions, lets go straight to non-political capitalists here

And do remember we are rehashing with China discussions we had over productivity and debt etc with Japan during the 1980's.

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#14
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

12/31/2011 12:09 PM

I've got a step-daughter like this.here

She's now doing 3-5 for armed robbery and my wife and I will spend the rest of our lives raising her three children.

I'd like different model, please. One that may include a little hope for the future.

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#15
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

12/31/2011 12:21 PM

I'm all about hope for the future

I am sorry about your daughter, but the link didn't go anywhere revealing to me

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#16
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

12/31/2011 1:10 PM

You can actually liken U.S. government debt to the dead beat that never pays his credit cards or other bills and simply rolls over debt with consolidation loans or uses one credit card to pay for another.

Somehow, I don't find that comforting. I hate debt, so I guess I'm biased. I don't buy anything unless I have the money for it..................except my house.

The way I was raised, for someone to get themselves swallowed up in debt, was a sign of bad decisions and poor judgement. Now, both the government, and individuals, think nothing of piling up huge amounts of debt. For individuals, there no longer seems to be any stigma attached to runaway credit card debt, bankruptcy, foreclosure, etc. The attitude is...................So what? I'll just start over.

The thought of having the US debt forgiven because we can't afford to pay it back, also makes me want to puke. I don't think that's an option we should exercise, even if we could. That would be a dark day, and the repercussions would last for decades. No longer could we expect to be respected.

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#17
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

12/31/2011 1:25 PM

Not disagreeing with anything you say.

Said personal debt and government debt are not the same things.

One is generally abhorent, the other something you manage as part of larger economic equation.

My point was (forgive me as this may sound political but in fact transcends parties) the entire debt red herring has been brought out to ensure the financial institutions of the US are held harmless and sound while minimizing the assistance to American people.

And these decisions are being made by the same folks who apparently had no problem with spending a trillion a year on war.

Can you imagine what a trillion would do to stimulate the economy?

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#18
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

12/31/2011 2:36 PM

Not quite a trillion a year:

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0933935.html

Can you imagine what a trillion would do to stimulate the economy?

Yes

Not much.

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#26
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

01/01/2012 11:00 AM

10 % tax all land sales homes and commercial land and buildings all plains trains and autos, any vehicle that uses a motor and an axel to pay for social security medicare and medicade which will be able to pay for its self even baby boomers.

15 % corporate tax on net6 proffit

20% percent flat tax on all purchases paper prod food gas alcohol textiles all other consumer goods no tax on pharmicuticals or medical expences paid at point of purchase to the county county keeps 4% sends 7% to state and 9% to feds.

5% service tax on all services for preservation of all state and federal parks

2% tax on all sales stocks bonds and futures for education which will used for arts sciences it does take english and math to articulate arts and science will help the silly azz way we fund our futre generation rather then just the lottery gamble and who benefits from the better educated populis corporations.

the 10% tax pays for what cost us the most in the budget right now and should maintain it as long as we mandate congres can only use the funds for what they were intended for when they were collected in the event of a war all taxes woulds be raised 1% across the board to pay for the war may be raised by 1% in first year but no more then 3% for the term of the war.

this repeals our current county state and federal taxes and replaces our tax code to were we have controls set on were are taxes go, slow congress down a little.

congress senate and judiciary need term limits then maybe we can have the land of oportunity back be able to compete just saying

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#22
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

01/01/2012 6:45 AM

I quickly read the link you gave on why the US debt does not matter etc. and while I generally agree with much of what is said, it also seems to me that the story is not complete - much as the economists story about, "tariffs make goods more costly and that is a bad thing, open trade is the only way to go etc." is not a complete story.

What ever structural changes do occur in the world will take a long time - tens if not a hundred years. The time constant for world processes tend to be long. Just look at the rise of and fall of every "mature" empire we know about so far - there have been a few start up failures like Nazi Germany! Because of the complexity and long time frames involved it is impossible to forecast the detail and timing of any transition process.

When I see the current US position (with Australia running close behind) my inclination is to see it as a slower and larger more complex version of Nauru - a brief period of expansion and wealth until its minerals wealth (bird sh*t) ran out, leaving an island full of people with no skills or money and so at the mercy of other powers in the world. The US has already consumed much of its resources. Australia will take a couple of hundred years (at todays rate) to catch up.

In sustainability and environmental terms 100 years is like tomorrow in human/generational terms - and unfortunately because of the way humans think we tend to not use the right time frames in our assessments and so discount long term possibilities/probabilities too much

The question I ask is, "What is it exactly that the US (or any western country) will be able to do in 50-100 years that the engineers in China will not be able to do, and that with their wealth, how exactly is the US going to be able to do anything about it. China already "owns" the US, it is already "doing" much of the new "renewables stuff" and the transition process has barely started - maybe 30 years worth.

Of course the outcome is not automatic. China has its own major internal tensions to deal with and for a country born out of revolution another revolution has to be a possibility. It could crash economically as Japan did, and it might for example be more susceptible (or not) to global warming. India might also emerge as a counterforce of some sort. Whichever the final exciting scenario is that is played out, we probably won't be here to see it. But I do predict that glib "the US is too big to fail" logic will prove to be about as valid as it was when some Roman treasurer (probably) said the same thing about 2000 years ago, and about 200 years before that empire was gone.

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#23
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

01/01/2012 9:33 AM

I was neither suggesting that debt doesn't matter, nor that we are at the crux of huge change as we go from selling off our resources to some other economy; only that picking a time of great unemployment to decide to cut government spending is not the most prudent choice in the short term.

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#27
In reply to #2

Re: TV Special: The China Question

01/01/2012 11:29 AM

1, 339,724 852 ///800# gorillas could purchase some american goods its not a bad pipeline equal trade

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#29
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

01/01/2012 11:57 AM

Problem is, we don't manufacture anything they need, or can't produce more cheaply themselves.

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#30
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

01/01/2012 12:00 PM

Except apparently, BMWs.

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#31
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

01/01/2012 12:04 PM

Wanna bet? Wiki says:

Production by country

CountryMake20062008Models
GermanyBMW905,057901,898BMW 1, 3, 5, 6, Z, X1,
MexicoBMW1,500100,000

[18]

BMW X3, X5, 3, 5, 7, and Motorcycles
ChinaBMWN/A67,00BMW 3, 5 series
RussiaBMW1,5002,000BMW X5, X6, 5-series
United Kingdom

Mini

187,454235,019All Minis

Rolls-Royce

671,417All Rolls-Royce
AustriaBMW114,30682,863BMW X3
USABMW105,172170,741BMW X3, X5, X6
South AfricaBMW54,78247,980BMW 3-Series

Total

1,366,8381,439,918
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#32
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

01/01/2012 12:11 PM

Harkening back to the other thread on German auto workers, American manufacturing's heyday was immediately post-war. But note that no other major manufacturing countries were in any shape to compete.

Germany and Japan had to rise through the ranks of heavy competition to the positions they are in, and we never saw the same levels of investment in American manufacturing.

I remember back in the 1980s as we gnashed our teeth over Japanese auto manufacturing, lots of Detroit was still using the same presses and methods they used to gear up for WWII.

Things have changed, but I suspect those industries mindset haven't changed much. Constant reinvestment in the long run pays off better than outsourcing, which pays dividends today but creates it's own problems down the road.

The US is still a giant in manufacturing, but outsourcing is a form of brain-drain as you export your latest methods overseas along with your expertise.

This has resulted in a number of "US" manufacturers who employ few Americans, pay little in taxes, but want to command loyalty from consumers.

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#33
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

01/01/2012 12:23 PM

Our problem is the maximum profit today, regardless of the consequences, mentality.

The lawyers and accountants who run things today don't care about what happens tomorrow.

It's all about "me", never about "we".

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#34
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

01/01/2012 3:34 PM

because we cant compete with our tax code

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#35
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

01/01/2012 4:09 PM

maybe yes

maybe no

billionaires don't need tax breaks, which is just another diversion like the hype over the deficit

we need every entity who accesses the US consumer market to pay their share of the considerable expense involved in the upkeep of the infrastructure that makes it all possible

we don't need more or less government

we need better government

money is not free speech

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#36
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

01/01/2012 5:34 PM

Well I would certainly agree with the fact that our tax code is a labyrinth of years of the group in power trying to take advantage of the groups out.

It could use a complete overhaul, but I'm also not dumb enough to think I can slap a set of percentages on there and call quits.

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#39
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Re: TV Special: The China Question

01/02/2012 1:30 PM

Thats why i call it starts.

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#19

Re: TV Special: The China Question

12/31/2011 10:37 PM

This may help..

Economics 101


> SOCIALISM
> You have 2 cows.
> You give one to your neighbour.
>
> COMMUNISM
> You have 2 cows.
> The State takes both and gives you some milk.
>
> FASCISM
> You have 2 cows.
> The State takes both and sells you some milk.
>
> BUREAUCRATISM
> You have 2 cows.
> The State takes both, shoots one, milks the other, and then throws the milk
> away.
>
> TRADITIONAL CAPITALISM
> You have two cows.
> You sell one and buy a bull.
> Your herd multiplies, and the economy grows.
> You sell them and retire on the income.
>
> ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND/Barclays (VENTURE) CAPITALISM
> You have two cows.
> You sell three of them to your publicly listed company, using letters of
> credit opened by your brother-in-law at the bank, then execute a
> debt/equity swap with an associated general offer so that you get all four
> cows back, with a tax exemption for five cows.
> The milk rights of the six cows are transferred via an intermediary to a
> Cayman Island Company secretly owned by the majority shareholder who sells
> the rights to all seven cows back to your listed company.
> The annual report says the company owns eight cows, with an option on one
> more.
> You sell one cow to buy a new president of the United States , leaving you
> with nine cows.
> No balance sheet provided with the release.
> The public then buys your bull.
>
> AN AMERICAN CORPORATION
> You have two cows.
> You sell one, and force the other to produce the milk of four cows.
> Later, you hire a consultant to analyse why the cow has dropped dead.
>
> A FRENCH CORPORATION
> You have two cows.
> You go on strike, organize a riot, and block the roads, because you want
> three cows.
>
> A JAPANESE CORPORATION
> You have two cows.
> You redesign them so they are one-tenth the size of an ordinary cow and
> produce twenty times the milk.
> You then create a clever cow cartoon image called 'Cowkimon' and market it
> worldwide.
>
> AN ITALIAN CORPORATION
> You have two cows, but you don't know where they are.
> You decide to have lunch.
>
> A SWISS CORPORATION
> You have 5000 cows. None of them belong to you.
> You charge the owners for storing them.
>
> A CHINESE CORPORATION
> You have two cows.
> You have 300 people milking them.
> You claim that you have full employment, and high bovine productivity.
> You arrest the newsman who reported the real situation.
>
> AN INDIAN CORPORATION
> You have two cows.
> You worship them.
>
> A BRITISH CORPORATION
> You have two cows.
> Both are mad.
>
> AN IRAQI CORPORATION
> Everyone thinks you have lots of cows.
> You tell them that you have none.
> No-one believes you, so they bomb the crap out of you and invade your
> country.
> You still have no cows, but at least you are now a Democracy.
>
> AN AUSTRALIAN CORPORATION
> You have two cows.
> Business seems pretty good.
> You close the office and go for a few beers to celebrate.
>
> A NEW ZEALAND CORPORATION
> You have two cows.
> The one on the left looks very attractive.
>
> A GREEK CORPORATION
> You have two cows borrowed from French and German banks
> You naturally eat both
> The banks call to collect their milk
> You are out getting a haircut
>
>

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#21
In reply to #19

Re: TV Special: The China Question

01/01/2012 4:52 AM

And AFRICA:

Forget the "political correctness" and say the truth.

You get a herd together from the moment you drop down from your mom's back, to marry your 10 x wifes to pay "labola".

Your tribe murder, rape and steal from the other tribes or vice versa.

You murder, rape and steal from the people that is the backbone of the economy and keeps you alive while the government say there is no problem.

BP, SHELL and China and USA and Europe rip the continent apart for wealth and leave it inhabitable afterwards and ....more bancrupt than ever with only a few top officials that suddenly became bilionaires.

Nothing actually gets built after colonialism - rather more broken down and more hunger, more sickness - but everything is colonialism fault - and those responsible must keep up paying for the expensive live styles of the selected few that are in power.

The rich nations must give, give, give and give - while Africa waste, waste, waste = corruption.

Yeah = part of the USA total bancrupt state is giving hand-out the world over while other is sitting back and relax, knowing the US will fly in at massive cost, food, water, medicine, doctors, agriculture supplies (that will be standing under trees within one year) etc on the US tax payer cost.

My question - why do you not see Russia, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the rich oil states of the Mid East not supplying the "humanitarian" support ???????

BILLION, BILLIONS of hard earned honest tax payers money go to absolute waste to a world and areas that does not give a tit for the USA - they call it "humanitarian support"

Stop doiing that and you can start paying back the interest at least on those TRILLIONS that the national bank of the USA (China) actually do not want back.

To owe means actually that you are a slave of the lender and you can bend his arm as it suits you. Get out of it.

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#28
In reply to #21

Re: TV Special: The China Question

01/01/2012 11:50 AM

Yeah = part of the USA total bancrupt state is giving hand-out the world over while other is sitting back and relax, knowing the US will fly in at massive cost, food, water, medicine, doctors, agriculture supplies (that will be standing under trees within one year) etc on the US tax payer cost.

Remember the phrase, "you can't buy friendship". It's the same thing with the U.S. We are trying to buy the friendship of other countries. They are smart enough to accept it, but not without a catch. We give in the name of humanitarianism, but we all know there is a catch somewhere. There is a payback; maybe not immediately, but sometime in the future. I always like to quote folk lore and use phrases like, "no free lunch", "what goes around, comes around", guns to plowshares", etc. It may seem a simplistic view, but it serves to sum up in a nutshell the overall situation without going into specifics. (KISS)

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#20

Re: TV Special: The China Question

01/01/2012 3:05 AM

Some of us aren't likely to be able view that program on The China question.

Can someone provide a quick summary of its main point so that I can throw 2 bob in as well please?

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#24

Re: TV Special: The China Question

01/01/2012 9:57 AM

It doesn't show on my programming list. Replaced with paid programming?

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#25
In reply to #24

Re: TV Special: The China Question

01/01/2012 10:33 AM

It showed up on my CNBCW channel, what that may mean where you are I don't know.

It also is a channel that doesn't allow me to record it

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#37

Re: TV Special: The China Question

01/01/2012 9:59 PM

Trevor made some good points related to huge economic inertia we are dealing with. It takes years to see the effects of economic policies; sometimes decades, but always longer than an election cycle.

China;

In the myopic and short term vision used by western capitalists China appears to be some giant rising to its full stance. In reality it is more like the US during its glory days, where labor, resource, and capital were in easy supply. And, like the US, the nature of power is defining their direction in the development of a hugely expensive and non-productive Military Industrial Complex(M.I.C.). By non-productive I do not use the common metrics of ROI at the corporate level, which often looks no further forward than the next fiscal quarter, but the strategic economic value of activities involved; the effects of investment on the economic infrastructure of a society, not the ROI for a corporation. That is, the strategic ROI for the overall economic system in terms of sustainability.

An example would be looking at the ROI on the 1 Billion Dollar plus investment per unit for the new air refueling tankers versus an alternative investment in, let us say, transportation infrastructure. Although that 1 Billion dollar investment in one airplane may bring a huge ROI for the corporation, if provides little sustained ROI for the society as a whole. And because of the nature of conflict where economics envelops all components of political conflict, makes us weaker - not stronger. China is just now embarking upon that unsustainable path. They too; will face that same economic dynamic; but with a much larger population to control.

In another comparison; let us estimate US spending on Health Care as now approaching 20 percent of GDP; yet the productive life span of its workers is now decreasing. Although our hearts beat longer; the length of our producing lives is now decreasing; even as our retirement ages go up. This is in the US where we began addressing some of the environmental causes of increasing health care costs decades ago. Unless China addresses the environmental issues it faces, it will face even larger numbers on the expense side of the ledger. In order to avoid those long term debilitating expenses; significant capital will be diverted away from purely competitive economic investment.

In the US, most of our increases in labor productivity over the past two decades has come by increasing the working hours during the producing life span of our workers. I believe it is reasonable to expect that working hours has some limits before the toll on health and worker push back no longer allows for increased labor productivity. I don't know where that limit is; but I am confident that China is much closer to that limit than the western societies.

If we can somehow avoid being led into a military conflict by those who lead the western or the rapidly developing Chinese M.I.C, now in alliance with the other members of the SCO, we may, in the time-frames described by Trevor, survive with some semblance of civil social order and lifestyle expected of a modern industrial nation. If we are unable to avoid that conflict then I am confident that the US, or China, will not be making significant contribution to the coming world culture.

Oh --I almost forgot; saying debt, more specifically the capital outflows represented by interest export doesn't matter; is like saying heat and smoke do not significantly contribute to fire damage. It's a no brainer. It may not matter to those who control the central banks since they are pretty much one and the same, but to the economic systems that sustain that capital outflow it matters. In education, in transportation, in industrial capacity, in demand for goods and services, in economic growth ---- it matters.

Gavilan

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#38

Re: TV Special: The China Question

01/02/2012 1:15 PM

Well, I'll say one thing... all you have to do is put the word China in the thread title and it generates posts.

for Wal ("Some of us aren't likely to be able view that program on The China question.

Can someone provide a quick summary of its main point so that I can throw 2 bob in as well please?)

It's main point, which has been made in other places and formats, is "America, we have a problem." As I posted, I was affected by the presentation -- not so much that it contained "new" information. I taped it on Sunday, trying to eliminate commercials. That's always dicey to judge. I usually end up with 1-2, 2-4 sec. blips in between segments because of a trigger happy remote controller. I wish that CNBC (CNBW, as pointed out by edignan, would offer it for viewing on their website. Given that it is a commercial product, I understand why they don't. But there are quite a few documentaries that were "released" as products, which can be view on the Web some place. I'm sure it will get repeated again, it just will probably be months down the road and none of us will remember to look for it.

I just took a quick look to see if it is available for free viewing. Several links advertise that it is, including a YouTube link. One link I tried crashed Firefox. YouTube removed whatever had been posted as Part 1. But the advertising trailer is on YouTube. The trailer doesn't do justice to the full documentary. But it might whet your appetite to see it. It will seem like standard fare. But it was well done. There is also a Facebook site, for it. I was trying to read some of the posts there, but after a time, the screen grayed out and I was prompted to login. Not a Facebooker, so I left.

Any way, it was nice of you all to post about whatever came to you mind when China was mentioned.

I'll assume no one got to see it, but I will check back here.

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