Economics of Photovoltaics

I saw a write up on this some time back, then it had only been a lab experiment.

It's not a question of efficiency, but cost per watt. 1% efficiency would be fine if the panels were cheap enough to be competitive. Likewise, a 100% efficient panel that cost $1,000,000/watt would be useless.

It is also about physical size the better the efficiency the smaller they can be. Size and weight can be problematic and planning departments are less likely to refuse a small area on an old building. Every % that can be gained will help to make this technology better, but I do agree cost is a very great barrier at this time yes the cost per watt is a limitation.

Cost,space and efficiency is more a problem in urban area. Many parts of the world are sparcely populated. Examples hilly area, deserts and many large parts of rural areas where electricity is very expensive to deliver. Photo voltaics turn out to be way cheap and efficient form of electrical energy source. Out of about 4 billion human on earth more than 50% is the number which already makes it economically viable and realistic.

The only real limitation is the production of enough silicon wafers. The Fab plants are now at full production and more are being built but demand still out strips supply. Hense a lot of the cost is in the raw material side of things. Solar competes with micro chips.

"who" is delaying the production? It does not appear to be so in India and US. The situation seems to be so with Australia It would be very revealing if one can get more information on world wide production and reqirement situation.

The point that solar makes sense because the sun is up when electric use is greater is good to remember.

At what level of efficiency does Photovoltaic become "truly feasible," even without storage, just to handle daytime demand

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The Chinese Ph.D. gentleman behind Australia's leading position in Commercial PV will determine that.

He wants to maximize earnings-and that will bring market-forces in .

The Market will dictate.

But IBM is soon announcing a 5% jump in efficincy.

Watch this space!

I think a true breakthrough in solar technology is non-silicon wafer based cells. There are current research projects on spray on cells (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/01/0114_050114_solarplastic.html), and (more promising), polymer based solar materials that can be easily and cheaply made with current photo film manufacturing processes (http://www.konarkatech.com/). VERY cool.

This plastic could be used as windows, and collect energy from the non-visible spectrum. It can be made in any color. It could be used to cover cars, cell phones, anything. The technology is quickly becoming mature due to reliance on well known, cheap manufacturing processes, and heavy investment from many private companies and various US government grants.

Maybe they will even come up with a way to use bioplastics to produce the base polymer.

The level of efficiency is only the smallest part of a complex economic balance.

The 'grid` must supply the load, regardless of insolation.

Therefore the costs of: Fuel, power generation, (including maintaining, interest,
payback, and amortising), must be ballanced against the cost of the power provided
by the solar installation.

Many of the 'standard plant` costs go on whether the plant is running or not.
If you can figure this one out, call me.

I think you are looking at it mirror image, the photovoltaic allows certainly direct fuel costs to be avoided. To your point that there remain costs of back up capacity, this is true, but now that cost can be amortized over all kilowatts, not just combustion kilowatts.

I do not agree with your statement the grid must supply the load,; If I have photovoltaics and inverter on my roof, I will run my kilowatts, not purchase from the grid utility. The question is at 'tipping point' which I saw as efficienecy or yield from photovoltaics, will the decision to install become a 'no brainer' for those few of us who have not drained our home equity to buy SUV's or other expensive frivolities...

Thanks for your thoughtful reply we both see that back up capacity will still be needed and costs recovered somehow.

milo

In your initial post you stated "even without storage".

Thus the grid IS required to carry the load under your origional condition.

During daytime, i will use incident as available. thus no storage. With insufficent insolation, then I would need grid, but point is to supplement generated power with distributed photovoltaics; at what point do they become costeffective.

milo

Now it gets much simpler.

Estimate the cost of your solar installation including:
Solar Panels, (here's the only place where efficiency comes into play),
Inverter, tie-in to domestic system, (transfer sw. mod.s to system, etc.),
and don't forget the skilled labor.
Take this cost and add the interest on a secured loan, (the cheapest kind,
currently running about 7 %), for the expected life of the system, (about
10 Yr.s should be safe). Add to this the expected maintainence on the system
for the period., and note the total 'system cost`.

Now take your best estimate of the cost of the energy you expect to save
over the stated period.
If this exceeds the 'system cost` above you may have arrived. - But I doubt it.