This is a summary of the 91 page WMAP paper in less than 2 pages for those unable or unwilling to persevere through it.
The Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) is a NASA satellite that was launched in 2001. The WMAP three year observations report (Dated Jan 5,2007) compares data to 13 models having 5,6,7,8, and 20 parameters. The one they call the best fit is the power-law LCDM model which has six parameters (matter density, Ωmh2, baryon density, Ωbh2, Hubble Constant, H0, amplitude of fluctuations, σ8, optical depth, τ, and a slope for the scalar perturbation spectrum, ns). This model fits not only the three year WMAP temperature and polarization data, but also small scale CMB data, light element abundances, large-scale structure observations, and the supernova luminosity/distance relationship.
To find the simplest model that fits the CMB and large-scale structure data, they used Bayesian statistical techniques to explore the shape of the likelihood function (with an unclear direction on how to estimate the number of data points to be used in the fit). They used Monte Carlo Markov chain methods to explore the likelihood surface, and the CAMB code for their analysis of the WMAP power spectrum. They constrained the hot big bang cosmological scenario with Gaussian, adiabatic primordial fluctuations as would arise from single field, slow-roll inflation. For their analysis they used 15 cosmological parameters.
The WMAP data demands the existence of dark matter and dark energy. It is based on the assumption that the primordial power spectrum is a power-law spectrum. If we allow for a non-flat universe, then models with small negative spatial curvature (Ωk) are a better fit than the power-law ΛCDM model. The best fit closed universe model has Ωm = 0.415, ΩΛ = 0.630 and H0 = 55 km/s/Mpc and is a better fit to the WMAP data alone than the flat universe model. However, the combination of WMAP data with either SNe data, large-scale structure data or measurements of H0 favors models with ΩK close to 0.
In their analyses, they considered the SDSS LRGs, the SDSS full sample and the 2dFGRS data separately. This allowed a check of systematic effects. They divided the small scale CMB data sets into low frequency experiments (CBI, VSA) and high frequency experiments (BOOMERanG, ACBAR), and the supernova data sets into two groups.
The WMAP data alone is now able to accurately set the basic six parameters of the ΛCDM model. The CMB data do not directly measure H0; however, by measuring ΩmH02 through the height of the peaks and the conformal distance to the surface of last scatter through the peak positions the CMB data (2003) produces a determination of H0 if we assume the simple flat ΛCDM model. The WMAP ΛCDM best fit value for the age of the universe: t0 = 13.73(+0.16−0.15) Gyr, agrees with estimates of ages based on globular clusters (2002) and white dwarfs (2004).
Here are some measurements of the Hubble constant: WMAP best fit, H0 =73.2(+3.1−3.2) km/s/Mpc;
HST (2001), H0 = 72 ± 8 km/s/Mpc, where the estimate is based on several different methods (Type Ia supernovae, Type II supernovae, surface brightness fluctuations and fundamental plane); Gravitationally lensed system B1608+656 (2003), H0 = 75(+7−6) km/s/Mpc; SZ and X-ray observations of clusters (2005), H0 = 76(+3.9−3.4)(+10.0−8.0) km/s/Mpc; Cepheid distances to nearby galaxies that host type Ia supernova (2005), H0 = 73 ± 4 ± 5 km/s/Mpc. Analysis (2005) of the pre-three year release CMB data combined with the SDSS data (best fit), H0 = 70 ± 2.6 km/s/Mpc.
Measurements of Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) of the light element abundances are an important test of the standard big bang model. The WMAP estimate of the baryon abundance depends on our understanding of acoustic oscillations 300,000 years after the BB, and our understanding of physics in the first minutes after the BB.
A combination of first year WMAP data, other CMB experiments, large-scale structure and Lyman α (2005) find: Ωm = 0.281(+0.023−0.021). The Feldman et al. (2003) analysis of peculiar velocities of nearby ellipticals and spirals finds Ωm = 0.30(+0.17−0.07). Mohayaee & Tully (2005) apply orbit retracing methods to motions in the local supercluster and obtain Ωm = 0.22 ± 0.02. Analysis (2005) of the pre-three year release CMB data combined with the SDSS data (best fit), Ωm = 0.271 ± 0.026. The CLASS lensing survey (2002) finds that the number of lenses detected in the radio survey is consistent with a flat universe with a cosmological constant, and Ωm = 0.31(+0.27−0.14). Under the assumption that the baryon/dark matter ratio is constant with redshift, the Universe is flat, and standard baryon densities, Allen et al. (2004) find Ωm = 0.24±0.04.
The combination of the BAO and CMB observations strongly constrain the geometry of the universe. The position of the peak in the galaxy spectrum in the SDSS and 2dFGRS (2006) surveys provide local measurements of the angular diameter distance. The combination of SNe data and CMB data also favors a nearly flat universe.
Joint Data Set Constraints on Geometry and Vacuum Energy:
WMAP + h = 0.72 ± 0.08 ΩK = −0.014 ± 0.017 ΩΛ = 0.716 ± 0.055
WMAP + SDSS ΩK = -0.0053+0.0068−0.0060 ΩΛ = 0.707 ± 0.041
WMAP + 2dFGRS ΩK = −0.0093+0.0098−0.0092 ΩΛ = 0.745+0.025−0.024
WMAP + SDSS LRG ΩK = −0.012 ± 0.010 ΩΛ = 0.728 ± 0.021
WMAP + SNLS ΩK = −0.011 ± 0.012 ΩΛ = 0.738 ± 0.030
WMAP + SNGold ΩK = −0.023 ± 0.014 ΩΛ = 0.700 ± 0.031
The detection of primordial non-Gaussian fluctuations in the CMB would have a profound impact on our understanding of the physics of the early universe. The smallness of the CMB quadrupole seen by both WMAP and COBE has stimulated interest in the possibility that the universe may be finite. Since the release of the WMAP data, several groups have claimed detections of significant non-Gaussianities. Because of the potential revolutionary significance of these detections, they must be treated with some caution.
The data are so constraining that there is little room for significant modifications of the basic ΛCDM model. Cosmology requires new physics beyond the standard model of particle physics: dark matter, dark energy and a mechanism to generate primordial fluctuations. The clear detection of the predicted acoustic peak structure implies that the dark matter is non-baryonic. The combination of WMAP data with measurements of the Hubble Constant, baryon oscillations, supernova data and large-scale structure observations all reinforces the evidence for dark energy. The WMAP data match the basic inflationary predictions and are well fit by the predictions of the simple m2φ2 model. Further WMAP observations and future analyses will test the inflationary paradigm. While we do not find convincing evidence for significant non-Gaussianities, an alternative model that better fits the low i data would be an exciting development.
[It looks like the cosmological constant is here to stay. No we just have to explain it. How many more billion$ will they spend on this before they realize that it doesn't matter?]