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Improving the Data for Climate Models

01/30/2015 12:10 PM
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#1

Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

01/30/2015 1:01 PM

Why bother. NASA should know that no amount of data collection can persuade people.

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#2
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Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

01/30/2015 2:11 PM

How true that is.

My guess is that most of the people who don't agree with scientists about climate change and man, think the Earth is only 6,000 years old.

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#3
In reply to #2

Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

01/30/2015 2:22 PM

...who don't agree with scientists ...

That would mean every person on earth except for those who have no opinion what-so-ever, as scientists themselves don't even agree about climate change.

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#4
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Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

01/30/2015 2:31 PM

computer models have been all over the map on the topic, as with any computer if you feed it junk you get junk out. many models rely on smoothing and averaging of data, that really bothers me, using strictly data collected from satellites that have highly precise measuring capabilities can make for far more valuable predicting, having soil moisture, ground temp, and accurate carbon concentrations will provide what we need.....and 50 years of data collection to identify real trends

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#5
In reply to #4

Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

01/30/2015 6:16 PM

Do you really think 50 years of perfect data collection will allow accurate predictions of cycles that are measured in 100's of millenia? Can you demonstrate any accurate prediction that is based on the collection of data points? Stock market maybe. Sunspot activity? How about winning lottery numbers? (We've got thousands of those) Horse racing? (I got a "computer" for a horse racing enthusiast back in the late 80's early 90's. You could enter a number of variables for quite a few horses. Handicap info as well as track and weather conditions were among the variables. After doing this for a number of months, it didn't prove to be any better than a "hot tip" at the local bar.) The surface of the earth is approx 197 million square mile. A cubic mile of air at sea level weighs just under 6 million tons. The atmosphere, at ever decreasing weights, extends to more than 8 miles Do you really think 31 billion tons, or 100 billion for that matter, of carbon is significant?

IIRC from Statistics 101 you need a sample size of 1500 to represent the whole. As we've only had accurate data since '79, we've got a ways to go. Unless of course you think we've had reliable data from Africa, S.A, for the past 50 yrs. I've found that data from Continents that can't provide fresh water or toilet paper to most of their inhabitants to be suspect at best.

Collecting data points is not science, nor is collecting data points and making predictions based on the data. For example, take 100 coins and place them in a pot. Remove one coin without observing whether it is heads or tails and set it aside. Now remove and record the remaining 99 coins. Based upon your findings, how much will you bet on whether the first coin is head or tails? It makes no difference if the remaining 99 coins were all heads, or 50 were heads. You have a 50/50 chance of being wrong. Your odds are significantly better playing russian roulette with a 6 shot revolver with 2 rounds in the chamber.

One thing is certain, the "sky is falling" like the "over unity" folks, will continually think of new and creative ways to try and validate their claims. In my 60 plus years, I've experienced running out of oil 3 times, global cooling, acid rain, running out of copper, holes in the Ozone layer, spotted owls, DDT, using salt, not using salt, Mediterranean Diet (this does not include abstaining from hot Italian girls), egg cholesterol, benefits of margarine vs butter, piping plover decline to name but a few. Each of which has been much more dangerouser than the previous. Sort of like a Country and Western song, play it backwards and all the troubles will melt away.

Maybe we should start a new "Nobel" type prize or award. Call it the Robert Malthus award.

Thanks for listening. Bob Marley had it right in "3 Little Birds" (every 'tings gonna be alright).

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#6
In reply to #5

Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

01/30/2015 8:59 PM

As I said, why bother.

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#8
In reply to #5

Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

01/30/2015 11:29 PM

In my short life (68 years), I think the most disturbing scare tactic, as a youth, was the Nuclear warnings, (get under your desk), and the Nuclear freeze scenarios… Totally agree on the ability of certain groups, most of whom that get control of Governments and the pile of money that they control , wrested from the populace, through fraudulent taxation and wealth distribution schemes, to promote whatever "future disasters", that can only be solved by the Government. You must realize, that most of the large University research labs are funded by Govt money, and will always vote their salaries and pensions, over Science. Large Universities in the U.S., at least, vote 94% Liberal, as they are on the Gravy Train, so to speak… I wonder how things would look if the Scientists were being paid to prove that Climate Change would actually be a benefit, as it was after the Little Ice age, and at the beginning of the Holocene period…. You mention the size and scale of the Planet…One aspect which is not spoken about, as it is not as researched as much , is the vast heat sink, and heat transfer system , know as our Oceans, and currents within. Not only that, but also the absorption of CO2 and the fermentation of algae, with gasses resultant… Bet a horse, and all of his friends suddenly become yours...

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#12
In reply to #8

Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

01/31/2015 9:38 AM

Thank you sir: I'd forgotten about the desk drills, yea they were bad. Now that you mention it, I recall Khruschchev and his shoe, ironic that his son or maybe grandson resides at the Presidio

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#13
In reply to #8

Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

02/01/2015 8:37 PM

you might enjoy this "turncoat" who is highly educated and used to advise the Aussie government show you unhomogenized science.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plr-hTRQ2_c&feature=youtu.be

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#16
In reply to #13

Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

02/02/2015 1:22 PM

Fredski: Kudos, brother, that one really is a "coup de gras" to the climate models.

Any supposed "science" that cannot predict any impeccably measured trend with other than "random" precision, and also gets key aspects of its own model totally wrong is in fact worthless at correlating any observed trend with the supposed critical parameter.

In this case CO2 is cited as the key control parameter in the climate models, and not only were all the trends over-estimated, I am very hard pressed to see much of any trend up or down over the last 30 years (that would pass any statistical significance test). Furthermore, two key aspects - the 10Km tropical atmospheric "hot spot" predicted by the "CO2" model does not exist at all, and the model prediction that radiation from the earth would decrease when the oceanic surface temperature increased, are in complete discord with the observed normal trend in the data, namely that radiation increases with temperature.

Basically, CO2 caused global warming is the biggest "science scam" in history, and has a tremendously large price tag, that is against the will and reason of humanity, and ultimately must be removed from consideration.

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#19
In reply to #16

Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

02/02/2015 2:08 PM

thanks James. not only are the models worthless but their bogus predictions and failed results are the foundation of the scare tactics used to rationalize taxation. its "boogie man" junk science and a lot of fools have bought into it because they've been a fed a steady dose of BS for years.we now know the exact temps of all our oceans and their seasonal fluctuations, Florida will not be 20 feet under water, polar bears will not be drowning, sea ice has not disappeared by 2015 etc, coastlines and harbors around the world face no greater threat than 500 years ago. with all the sat data pouring in the lie is unraveling fast and sensible people will be given the truth about the "pollutant" known as carbon. its all been a scam since day one plenty of has been paid out to researchers to provide "scientific data" to support a desired conclusion. I think that single video tells the real story.

for years I've heard how much hotter the planet is becoming but the empirical evidence never lines up. unfortunately attaching a name like "NASA" will add instant credibility to an issue for many.so where did Dr Evans get his info? NASA satellites! It really comes down to spin on the numbers. current models need to be reworked and clear accurate sat data used and existing ground based data collection methods should be discontinued for climate data. we have the true data but the water is muddy and many are confused. I hope a lot of ardent supporters of taxation so politicians can "save the planet" will open their eyes and hear this guy out!

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#20
In reply to #19

Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

02/02/2015 2:36 PM

"current models need to be reworked and clear accurate sat data used and existing ground based data collection methods should be discontinued for climate data."

Fredski: I have an alternative suggestion for the models, other than re-working, and that is saying it in the kindest possible way.

How about turning down all the back-ass-wards parameters (i.e. removing the phoney ones), and inputting the real ones. They should try normal heat dissipation as discovered by Sir Isaac Newton, and also turn down eliminate the Carbon Dioxide control knob. The climate guys really should consider having a "solar thermal output" control knob for once. They could even label this knob "sunspot activity" if they so choose. I just hope they would think to launch an all-out program to limit such activity by law, and accidentally put out the sun!

At least maybe we could get the "ardent supporters of taxation" and the politicians to go back into their corners and muddle out "the next crisis" for a couple hundred years before bothering all of humanity with this class of nonsense again.

In my career as a scientist, I have always preferred having "real data", as opposed to the "cooked up" variety. Things work out better for me, and those whose work I am supporting with my work.

And don't you just hate it when "you" project a negative slope to some trend line, and then the REAL DATA shows a positive slope?

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#21
In reply to #20

Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

02/02/2015 3:43 PM

I have no argument

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#9
In reply to #5

Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

01/30/2015 11:44 PM

Funny ting is Bob is dead.

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#17
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Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

02/02/2015 1:24 PM

Bob who? Should we be in mourning?

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#22
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Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

02/03/2015 7:45 AM

Bob Marley of Bob Marley and the Wailers

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#23
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Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

02/03/2015 8:14 AM

As in "Don't worry, be happy!"

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#24
In reply to #23

Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

02/03/2015 9:03 AM

No, that would be Bobby McFerrin. He is still very much alive.

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#7

Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

01/30/2015 11:25 PM

Data accuracy is important, however assessing the data throught the use of statistics and the effective communication of same is the only way to convince people (including me ) of the meaning. The Wilkinsonizing of the data, the methods of assessing the data, and the application of the data to real life such as correlation to human influence vs other factors is important. Other factors include volcanic eruptions such as Krakatoa, the creation of the isthmus of panama and ocean temperatures should be evaluated. A more serious impact, the pH of the oceans also should be evaluated in this manner. Not saying pollution is not a adverse factor to life, just what is the impact.

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#10
In reply to #7

Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

01/31/2015 12:00 AM

Pollution is probably the greatest impact on Local areas… The pollution index of Carbon particles in the Southern Hemisphere, came not from oil or coal, but from charcoal , open pit fires, used in Third World countries, as measured by Australians and So. Africans….The scale of the Planet, climate wise , quickly reduces pollution, on a global scale. Local influences , such as heavy metal dumping affecting shellfish, oil spills (Valdez etc), are problems mostly because they occur in areas without much flushing and, or circulation. The study of the sea bottoms, being as remote as they are, will give us much more data. Hard to put satellites down there… I will return with another viewpoint on the Human influence in another post…It is an interesting one, which is a bit counterintuitive to the current think...

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#11
In reply to #10

Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

01/31/2015 9:22 AM

Yes, but there are many here and elsewhere who are not capable of think, only hear...

It is plainly obvious to others what we are seeing....

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#14

Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

02/01/2015 9:39 PM

We had a guy apply for a postdoc position in our group. We were interested in his experience with Kalman Filters because we have an MS project involving Kalman filter (for a totally different application). I asked the guy if he knows of any work that attempts to use Kalman filters for climate prediction. He wasn't aware of any, but I see that there is some of that type of work going on: Kalman filter. Similar to the work mentioned above, it involves measurement of moisture levels by satellites--but in this case, precipitation levels not soil moisture. It seems to me precipitation levels would be a better way to tackle this, but I'm just saying ... not an expert.

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#15
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Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

02/01/2015 9:49 PM

I'm not either but rainfall totals can be deceptive. the water is of little use if it runs off I think it's a key data point that eliminates assumptions and will lead to better modeling in the future, obviously what I've seen doesn't add up in my mind. throw out estimation and give me hard science every time.

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#18
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Re: Improving the Data for Climate Models

02/02/2015 1:34 PM

I went to the link and read the article abstract. It appears to me that all the abstract has to say is that the model is no good, or that the abstract is worded in an extremely contridactory way in an effort to "CYA". Does ANY of this stuff actually work in some sort of straightforward way that science is normally or usually suspected or expected to operate?

Again: Any hypothesis that is contradictory to the actual data in any one aspect is incorrect, but in the case of climate change it (1) overestimates the main observable (temperature), (2) predicts an equatorial 10km altitude "hot spot" that in fact does not exist at all, and (3) predicts huge rises in sea level, when the actual data is near 0.33mm per year. If I was basing my dissertation on such a hypothesis, or basing my livelihood on such, I would say my plan was dead on arrival, and it's time to pick another career path.

What say you?

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