Learning to Fight Without Space Based Assets

Learning to Fight Without Space Based Assets:

Apsidal rotation enables space denial attack because a single launch attack impacts many orbital inclinations and altitudes.

Three options for maintaining credible deterrence against Space Denial Attack are considered.

1. Absolute Space Dominance encompassing the capability to deny orbital capability from anywhere on the planet.

2. Developing tactical capability in positioning terrestrial based assets; and convincing our adversaries that those capabilities are near equivalent to existing systems.

3. Nothing.

Option 1: Absolute Space Dominance.

I believe the logic behind the original ABM treaty still applies; that is - the economic efficiencies of offensive technology far outweigh that of defensive technologies. And that extended conflict is first and foremost an economic endeavor.

Option 2: Predetermined and Flexible Positioning of Terrestrial Based Systems.

I believe tactical capability in short notice terrestrial positioning of near equivalent systems is a more reliable and robust approach at some magnitude less cost.

Option 3: Nothing.

I believe our space faring adversaries fully understand the strategic vulnerabilities of the United States, have prepared to fight in a space denied environment, and do not believe our command authority would initiate scaled nuclear warfare; even after losing all space based assets.

Roughly estimated the total payload mass to contaminate the equatorial plane from LEO to Geosync using 2 mm polystyrene pellets dispersed from a highly elliptical 43,000 km semi-major axis retrograde orbit is about 9,506 KG. This being at a dispersal rate of one particle per meter along the flight path of the attack orbit. The velocity component of a retrograde impact at Geo-station is estimated to be somewhere between 6140 and 3070 m/s. For a 2 mm polystyrene pellet I believe this would approximate a kinetic energy = 1/2mv^2 where v is the closing speed.

The mass of a single 2 mm pellet of polystyrene is estimated to be 3.52E-5 kg. The heat of vaporization for polystyrene is about 44 kJ/mole; its molecular weight is about 104.1. The estimated translated energy required to phase one pellet is estimated at 15 J. It is anticipated that upon impact enough energy will translate to phase the pellet to vapor as it passes through the target; greatly expanding the impacting cross section.

Guessing an apsidal rotation of 4 degree per day for each of the 4 attacking orbits a 4 launch attack spaced 90 degrees apart would take about 22.5 days to sweep out the entire volume between apogee and perigee of 4 identical attack orbits. (Biggest guess here as I am still working on the simple algorithm to calculate apsidal rotation.)

The folks who brought us to bankruptcy selling us a gee whiz dependency on easily defeatable space technology had to have known this from the onset. I am confident that our non-caveman adversaries knew it too.

I believe our space faring adversaries fully understand the strategic vulnerabilities of the United States and have prepared to fight in a space denied environment; I suggest we do the same.

Gavilan's Zero Sum Law of Extended Confrontation - "Whoever goes broke last - wins."

10 REM SDCs

20 CLEAR

30 PI=3.14159

40 CLS

50 PRINT" Enter the semi-major axis. ":INPUT A

60 OPL=2*PI*A: REM length of orbital path

70 PRINT OPL;" Orbital Path Length."

80 PRINT" Input material density of particles":INPUT PD

90 PRINT" Input material particle radius ": INPUT PR

100 PRINT" Input dispersal density as particles per meter ": INPUT DD

110 NP=OPL/DD: REM total number of particles to contaminate orbital path length

115 PRINT" Total number of particles to contaminate orbital path length ";NP

120 PV=4/3*PI*PR^3 : REM particle volume

130 PM = PD*PV: REM particle mass

140 TV=PV*NP: REM total warload volume

145 PRINT" Total warload volume - non-compressed. ";TV

150 TM=PM*NP: REM total particle mass

155 PRINT" Total warload mass."; TM