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 In the past few years, the
marketplace for plug-in electric vehicles has changed almost as rapidly as the
technology behind the vehicles. There is a soft-target of 1 million plug-in
(not hybrid) electric vehicles on American roads by 2015, and the European
Union has a target of 9 million vehicles by 2020, but both goals seem unlikely
to be reached. In the past 5 years, 115,000 PEVs have been purchased in the
U.S., while in there are currently about 100,000 PEVs on the roads in the E.U.
While 1 million PEVs in the
U.S. by 2015 seems farcical at this point, the U.S. still accounted for 26% of
PEV sales worldwide in 2012, only behind Japan at 28%. It's an especially
poignant statistic when Americans have to traverse the world's third-largest
country with the world's largest road network size, a staggering 4.03 million
miles, and are being asked to do so in vehicles with ranges typically less than 100 miles.
When it comes time to charge the vehicle, which can take several hours, drivers
must find one of only 5,700 charging stations around the U.S. This means the
average distance between charging stations (~700 miles) is larger than the
average range of a PEV. As such, PEVs are mostly consigned to travel where the
infrastructure to support them is available, and these are typically regions
saturated with travel alternatives already.
 Yet,
there is at least a test
bed for PEV integration which Asian and European manufacturers are
observing in
hopes of learning how they can improve the design of PEVs. Norway, the
smallis Nordic country of 5 million, has the highest degree of
PEV market penetration, with more than 2.25 percent of registered
vehicles
being of the plug-in type. About 13,500 PEVs are on the road in Norway
with the
support of 4,200 charging stations. While some PEVs in Norway are
comical-looking (see the PEV Buddy, at left), they are popular for their
government
rebates, exemptions from road taxes, tolls and parking fees, and their
ability
to use bus and express lanes despite the degree of occupancy. While
Norway's
120,000 miles of roadway pales in comparison, some manufacturers feel
that the
number of PEV daily-drivers in Norway may be more indicative of the
vehicle's
performance over the long term. With extensive feedback and helpful
legislation, automakers have refined their electric offerings and PEV
popularity is soaring in Oslo.
 Perhaps this is one of the
major reasons that the 'big three' American auto manufacturers--Ford, GM and
Chrysler--have let Tesla Motors take the early lead in American-made PEVs. With
no 'Norway' of their own to heavily introduce electric vehicles, it's hard for
American automakers to understand how to evaluate electric vehicles. An
extensive and expensive collection of batteries would be needed to power a PEV
anywhere in America, and Tesla is the only American manufacturer to offer an
electric vehicle with a range of more than 100 miles. Their battery packs have
a minimum range of 200 miles, and in some cases reach 300 miles. By comparison,
the Chevy Volt PEV, which has sold more models than the Tesla S, has an
electric range of 21 miles and 149 hp. Ford's Focus Electric has a range of 76
miles with 130 hp and a top speed of 85 mph. Chrysler has introduced the Fiat
500electric, but has yet to create an original electric vehicle, let alone a
model which could compete with Tesla.
Car consumers have also come
to expect a worthwhile power train warranty on every new car. This is
troublesome for a battery which must be reliable in a dynamic and harsh
setting. Heck, obtaining a good warranty on a battery for a laptop can be
difficult, so insuring a battery for a car built for American roads is going to
be expensive. It's why Tesla can sell their Model S for an average of $70,000;
they offer a 10 year / 120,000 mile warranty on the battery and motors. Tesla
is essentially hoping that these batteries last long enough for  the company to
turn a significant profit, and it seems like they're going to;Tesla has been making money since May after paying
back loans.
Unfortunately there isn't
much incentive to be the first company to offer an interesting, competitive,
and comprehensive all-electric vehicle. Ford, GM and Chrysler have let Tesla
take the pole
position in the PEV sector mainly because they're risk averse,
and instead have supplied weak PEV offerings to act busy. Their thinking: If
someone's going to lose money, let it be Tesla. Once Tesla proves they can
supply a sustainable product line, Ford, GM and Chrysler will join the market
with thoughtful plug-in electric vehicles. Until then, the race is Tesla's to lose.
Resources
Forbes - Tesla shares get charge...
Plug-In Cars - Tesla Roadster Battery Life...
Wikipedia - Plug-in electric vehicles in Norway;
List of modern [PEVs]
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