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Moore's Law at 50

Posted April 16, 2015 10:28 AM by wagman262

Bill Schweber, one of our contributing editors, has a terrific piece on the 50th anniversary of Moore's Law. Have a look at it here and let me know what you think!

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#1

Re: Moore's Law at 50

04/16/2015 7:02 PM

Yeah, it's been a heckuva ride!

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#2

Re: Moore's Law at 50

04/17/2015 7:07 AM

With the power of computers increasing,size decreasing, prices decreasing,if one plots it out,eventually we will be able to do everything with nothing and it will be free.

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#3

Re: Moore's Law at 50

04/17/2015 9:49 AM

I would like to see a chart of Moore's Law next to a chart of Windows showing how Windows eats up all that power in step with it coming about. This means that our computers are no faster now than they were in the 1980's when the operating system was in machine code. This is just how I see the world we live in.

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#4
In reply to #3

Re: Moore's Law at 50

04/17/2015 10:11 AM

Welcome.

I think your comparison is a bit extreme, but I hear you on how processors have to get faster just to accomodate the bling.

Imagine running this forum in machine code directly. I'm pretty happy to have a pretty display and simplicity and all the hard and boring bits done by the computer.

But the bling makes the machines pay so there you have it.

Enjoy CR4.

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#5

Re: Moore's Law at 50

04/21/2015 11:41 PM

I was reading the article and I had to do a double take. "Moore subsequently went on to co-found Intel along with Fairchild's co-founder Robert Noyce in 1986, and was followed there by several other Fairchild co-founders. He served as chairman from 1979 to 1997 when he was given emeritus status."

I was in college in 1986 and I know that's not when Intel was founded. I did a Google search and they transposed the numbers - Intel was founded in 1968! That's better.

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#9
In reply to #5

Re: Moore's Law at 50

04/23/2015 2:37 PM

I've corrected the article to reflect 1968 and not 1986. Thank you for pointing out the error!

David

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#6

Re: Moore's Law at 50

04/21/2015 11:47 PM

I will admit that back in the late 1990's, I didn't think that continuing Moore's Law was possible. Boy, was I wrong! I actually thought we had hit a physical barrier and the shift would be away from microprocessor speed/complexity and to higher communications speed via fiber optics. We know that both have happened simultaneously.

As I sit back and thing about my PC back in 1999, I must say that I thought it was a pretty powerful machine. Today, that machine isn't even a good paperweight! I can now hold a more powerful computer in my hand (cell phone) and the cost is only a few hundred dollars. The speed we're moving forward is astonishing!

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#7

Re: Moore's Law at 50

04/22/2015 12:35 PM

I remember the industrial computers of the '70's (DEC and Sperry) and they were not

user friendly at all,requiring significant learning curve to input simple commands.

Backup via punch cards,then later 8" floppy's.

I remember a particlar Speery model 70 that had 16K of core memory that ran a whole factory,controlling temperatures,pressures,speeds,levels,etc.Using Fortran and a communication program called Comgen.

The entire system ran with a 512 head drum unit that cost $30K.

It could store 20 meg. of 16 bit words.

Each track had a separate read/write head.

All programs had to be very efficient,with no wasted resources.

A slide rule (remember that?) was commonly found in class rooms.

Now with modern computers, memory is dirt cheap,storage likewise,and computing power has increased exponentially,but at the expense of tight code.

The goal now is "Get it to market,we will work out the bugs as they occur.", as opposed to good code.

I do not bemoan progress,but I feel we have lost something along the way.

It is nice to have all the bling,and it makes it possible for anyone to use a computer,without knowing anything about computers or programming.

And that is good.

But I suspect that one day, the world will be controlled by a small group of savvy individuals that manage people like cattle,or more likely,sheep.

It is a natural tendency to take the path of least resistance,which usually means following others.

The easier it becomes to do a job, the lazier the workers become.

The keyboard gave way to the mouse for most,which gives way for touch pad,which will be replaced by wireless mind control.

Our present technology will seem like a blacksmith shop when looked at from 20 years hence.

Even baby monitoring has become computerised,with cry analysis to tell you what the infant wants.A digital grandparent.

The sci-fi sceanario of a brain in a jar does not seem that far fetched now.

The weak link is Mass Solar Ejections that can reset everything to zero,and there will not be anyone that remembers how.

As for Moore's law,they have already approached the atom level,and now the path forward seems to be quantum computing and spintronics.

Wish I could be a fly on the wall,so to speak, for the next hundred years.

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#8
In reply to #7

Re: Moore's Law at 50

04/23/2015 4:35 AM

Back in college, I took a course on assembly language and machine code. I thoroughly enjoyed it, because it showed me how the software interacted with the hardware (CPU, registers, keyboard, etc).

I don't think they teach this in college anymore, though I could be wrong.

Back in the late 1990's, my daughter's boyfriend, who was into the internet, was trying to show me the new way of coding software. Instead of going through a structured process, he told me that he just goes to other people's websites and takes things that he thinks will look good on his site. Then he modifies them as he needs to - most of it hit and miss. For instance, he sees the word "This is for a 4 cylinder Ford Probe" and he changes it to "This is for a 6 cylinder Ford Probe". He's not sure it's going to look right, until he runs the program.

I was shocked to hear his take on software programming. When I asked him why he doesn't start with a module and modify it as he needs to, his response was that it would take too long and it's easier for him to take stuff from other sites and modify them as needed.

I sure hope that other web developers don't do this sort of stuff, but I feel it's a lot more prevalent than we think.

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#10
In reply to #8

Re: Moore's Law at 50

04/23/2015 9:15 PM

It's like designing something around the junk that's lying around in the shed V designing something and crafting specific material to an exact requirement.

New age scrap assembly....

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