The Hyperloop Lives

If you ever compose a blog for CR4, prepare to be told you're wrong. It has happened to me dozens of times and it's somewhat of an 'earned stripe.' Well by now, I've been writing on CR4 long enough to witness myself become wrong.

In July 2013, when Elon Musk publically debuted his idea for the Hyperloop, I believed that the Hyperloop was innovative and exciting, but that red tape and the wild price would prevent it from usurping high-speed rail, or ever being realized. Musk had retasked some engineers at SpaceX and Tesla to work on his Hyperloop concept. He then debuted the open-source project with a lengthy white paper and invited other entrepreneurs to improve the Hyperloop design, since Musk was too busy to pursue the project himself.

Even today it is easy to see why I was so pessimistic at the time. A full-scale Los Angeles to San Francisco Hyperloop would cost $7.5 billion, according to Musk. A UC Berkeley professor estimated the real expense to be more like $100 billion. It would be built completely from conjectural technology, and though several independent engineering firms said that the concept was feasible, it needed work. Also, the rider experience could be distressing, as people are subjected to 800 mph in sealed, claustrophobia-inducing metal capsules.

But the invitation from Musk was all it took for several startups to jump onto the Hyperloop bandwagon, and the most successful is Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, which is building a five-mile-long test track in California for $100 million. HTT enlisted the help of over 100 engineers around the U.S. who participated remotely for stock rather than salary. HTT won't go so far as to say its five-mile-long track is a prototype, as it won't have the speed or distance of a true Hyperloop (though those specs have yet to be released). Rather, it will be used to test Hyperloop concepts. HTT expects this sub-Hyperloop to be opened by 2017 with public ridership by 2018.

A few of the areas under scrutiny? Capsule design is one of them. Engineers discovered that the capsules featured in Musk's original design weren't feasible. HTT sees a future where each capsule is unique-some are first class, some can transport a car or cargo, some are slower for anxious or ill riders. HTT has also put four-foot-diameter wheels on the trains to help cornering. It is also important to see how the Hyperloop responds to seismic activity, as the loop needs to remain smooth and sealed for its entire length. Eventually HTT wants to bring sub-Hyperloops to most metro areas, at first linking cities and then establishing intra-city networks.

Of course because one is never enough, Musk is still planning on building his own prototype Hyperloop in Texas. I'm surprised the Hyperloop is making such ambitious progress, but it still seems far off from being a practical solution. I'd love to see it built, but it's more likely to end up like other atmosphere railways-an abandoned tunnel 100 years from now--than as a disruptive technology.