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Thanks to drastically longer range and much shorter refueling times than electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are regarded as the best alternative to conventionally-powered vehicles, but they have yet to reach mass adoption, due to high production costs and lack of infrastructure.
However, although there are only a handful of hydrogen-powered models on the market at the moment, their number is bound to increase at a much faster rate over the next few years, slowly making their way into the mainstream. But, a new study now says that even though fuel cell car sales are going to see a significant boost in the next decade, they will still represent only a tiny fraction of total car sales.
70,000 Sales Annually
A recent report by IHS Automotive, the leading automotive industry market performance data firm, suggests that global sales of hydrogen fuel cell cars are expected to reach 70,000 per year by 2027, which would be a major jump compared to today's figures, but even with that large increase, they will only account for about 0.1% of all new vehicles sold.
“Recently there has been an increasing focus on battery electric vehicles and battery technology, but FCEVs could also play a key role in zero-carbon mobility,” said Ben Scott, senior analyst with IHS Automotive. “We are now in the third wave of FCEVs from OEMs and more Hydrogen Refueling Infrastructure is beginning to be rolled out,” he said. “This could be a ‘now or never’ situation for FCEVs in mass market mobility.”
Plenty of New Models Set to Be Introduced
According to the report, the number of hydrogen-powered models is expected to increase to 17, a strong jump over the current 3, over the next 11 years. At the moment, consumers can only choose from three fuel cell models: the Honda Clarity, the Hyundai ix35, and the Toyota Mirai, with some of them available for purchase, and others only available for lease.
IHS Automotive states that Japan and South Korea will continue to play a significant role in hydrogen car production, but their leading position will be taken by European car makers by 2021. The report states that stricter emission standards will make automakers based in Europe to ramp up their hydrogen vehicle production, in an effort to meet tougher regulations.
The IHS Automotive report goes on to state that the lack of refueling stations will continue to be a huge obstacle for hydrogen cars, noting the fact that they are very expensive to build and install, estimating the cost to be somewhere around $3 million.
The report concludes with a couple of arguments in favor of the viability of hydrogen cars, saying that their short refueling times and long range will make them appealing to future car buyers. “Refueling habits with an FCEV will be very similar to that of a conventional car. This will definitely help with customer acceptance of FCEVs,” Scott said. But, it also warns that if they don't achieve mass adoption within the next 20-25 years, they will never be able to become commonplace.
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