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Number of ET Civilizations In Our Galaxy Is 37,964

Posted October 20, 2008 9:24 AM

From Slashdot:

The famous Drake equation calculates the number of advanced civilizations in our galaxy right now. But the result is hugely sensitive to the assumptions you make about factors such as the number of habitable planets that orbit a host star, how many of these actually develop life and what fraction of these go onto become intelligent etc. Disagreements about these figures leads to estimates for the number of advanced civilizations ranging from 10^-5 to 10^6. Now an astronomer in Scotland has worked out how to make the calculations more precise so that different theories about the origin of planets, life and civilizations can be compared.

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user-deleted-13
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#1

Re: Number of ET Civilizations In Our Galaxy Is 37,964

10/20/2008 1:34 PM

37,964 ± SD of 20, that is, according to the Panspermia hypothesis. So, are we really talking about 37,964 ± 0?

37,964 ± 1?

37,964 ± 10?

37,964 (+0, -37964)? To hell with the SD! Why? You need hard data even to estimate the SD accurately and, popular though the notion seems to be, speculation does not constitute data. This astronomer's hypothesis and the Drake equation are pure speculation.

37,964? Hmm...pretty precise accounting there, all things considered. One of these things being a complete dearth of supporting evidence for even one ET civilization.
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Anonymous Hero
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#2

Re: Number of ET Civilizations In Our Galaxy Is 37,964

10/20/2008 1:39 PM

Don't let the politicians know or they will try to tax them all.
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user-deleted-13
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#3
In reply to #2

Re: Number of ET Civilizations In Our Galaxy Is 37,964

10/20/2008 4:28 PM

"Don't let the politicians know or they will try to tax them all."

--

LOL

Prolly why none of those 37,964 consider us a proper civilization!

-e
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JohnDG
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#4

Re: Number of ET Civilizations In Our Galaxy Is 37,964

10/20/2008 6:23 PM

"... estimates for the number of advanced civilizations ranging from 10^-5 ..."

Guess we're not advanced enough to count.

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user-deleted-13
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#5
In reply to #4

Re: Number of ET Civilizations In Our Galaxy Is 37,964

10/20/2008 10:28 PM

"... estimates for the number of advanced civilizations ranging from 10^-5 ..."

--

No, no! Estimates like 10-5 are perfectly legitimate and cover the 14,736 teeny tiny itsy bitsy civilizations.

Btw, Horton really did hear a Who. That's what started the whole Project Bluebook (Whobook?) thing. 'Cept that Whos live in interstellar dustbunnies, not snowflakes.

It's the big, pan-galactic ones who get exponents > 0.
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Kwetz
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#6

Re: Number of ET Civilizations In Our Galaxy Is 37,964

10/21/2008 2:56 AM

However, the so-called tortoise and hare hypothesis predicts 31,573.

I just knew the tortoise (Great A'Tuin) and the four elephants supporting a Discworld, but we, the Nac Mac Feegle don't consider planet Earth as an advanced civilizations: They even haven't Assassin's Guild!!!

Kind regards from Ankh Morpork

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U V
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#7

Re: Number of ET Civilizations In Our Galaxy Is 37,964

10/21/2008 2:03 PM

So it is stated that 361 to 37,964 Civilizations more advanced than ours in the Milky Way.

So the real question is: Are we in the master phone book(if so can I have a copy?), or do we even count yet?

Brad

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Bayes
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#8

Re: Number of ET Civilizations In Our Galaxy Is 37,964

10/23/2008 10:22 AM

This is what I'm talking about. There is no way that our energy problems will be solved by creating new Nuclear Fission Plants. Wait, what thread is this.......?
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