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Crude Oil

08/03/2015 9:15 PM

last Fall I made a series of posts claiming the price of oil was going to get crushed. it was trading about 80 bucks at the time. today it closed @$45. it still hasn't hit my ultimate low in the upper mid 30's but the trend is correct.

thank you fracking tech

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#1

Re: crude oil

08/03/2015 10:13 PM

I did what had to be done so that I could have the summer off.

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#2

Re: crude oil

08/03/2015 10:35 PM

Should have diversified out of oil five years ago....

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#3

Re: crude oil

08/03/2015 11:15 PM

Seems like this has been a tough time for a number of commodities...meanwhile the dollar is still gaining strength...short commodities-buy financials- fed rate hike coming soon.....

http://www.businessinsider.com/oil-prices-fall-21-in-july-2015-8

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#4
In reply to #3

Re: crude oil

08/04/2015 1:19 AM

A strong dollar is?

1, good

2, bad

which one.

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#6
In reply to #4

Re: crude oil

08/04/2015 2:08 AM

Well that's an interesting question....I guess it depends on who you're speaking to....It makes American exports more expensive to our trading partners around the world, who are losing strength against the dollar, and improves buying power for domestic consumers...now currencies are constantly in flux and in truth it's hard to say what's good and what's bad except when extremes are approached, which is always bad...Now the dollar has been weak for some time and even though it's been on an uptrend for some time, it's still not that strong against other currencies, generally speaking...so for us consumers it means prices should remain steady with some bargains cropping up from time to time, or pretty much the same....here's a good article from Forbes...

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#9
In reply to #3

Re: crude oil

08/04/2015 8:37 AM

I used to make my living from day trading. I won't pollute this forum with investing threads but I will say even the novice should understand that interest rates have been held artificially low for several years now and that's unsustainable. they should have have been gradually edged up but fear and a lack of will allowed them to freeze for far to long. fortunately inflation has been tame. at some point a new Fed chief will be named and they will ratchet up to a reasonable level and folks will actually save money as investments again. the rate of return currently steers money elsewhere.

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#5

Re: crude oil

08/04/2015 2:02 AM

First Detroit, then oil. What on earth is going on?

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#7

Re: crude oil

08/04/2015 8:09 AM

Problem is for me is my job is primarily dependent on the price of oil. Our major product is pipe and some base plates for offshore drilling rigs. Our sales have dropped dramatically since the oil crush. I tried to convince management to diversify into things like wind towers structure material but they consider it a passing fad.

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#8
In reply to #7

Re: crude oil

08/04/2015 8:34 AM

This is the fun of being in the oil business. It has been a roller coaster ride for decades. First there is a false shortage created by too low a price, followed by a glut created by artificially high prices due to the false shortage. I came into the oilfield in the mid 1970's shortage and left in the mid 1980's glut. Just keeps cycling over and over. The oil is out there, but we drill for it only when it is worthwhile.

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#10

Re: Crude Oil

08/04/2015 9:18 AM

Like so many things, it could be good or it could be bad. Last year I was working on a refinery upgrade project to allow lower grade of crude oil (like tar sand and fracked crude) to be refined. The drastic drop in the price of oil caused our client to cancel his project, and 56 of my colleagues and I lost our jobs in January. There were likely further layoffs after we left.

So while the price of gas dropped a lot, I no longer have a job to drive to.

BTW, it's not fracking technology that drove the price of oil down....fracking is significantly more expensive than traditional methods of extraction. It was OPEC who purposely dropped the price of crude in order to make fracking and tar sand extraction less economically attractive than buying imported crude. They wanted to stifle competition from North American sources of crude, and they succeeded.

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#11
In reply to #10

Re: Crude Oil

08/04/2015 9:23 AM

its always nice when someone corrects my ignorance on things I know

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#12
In reply to #11

Re: Crude Oil

08/04/2015 11:16 AM

It just shows the retail bias to go long. Anyone who's short thinks you're a genius.

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