Mathematicians Predict 2005 Cy Young Winners

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Steve Melito Guru Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2969 Good Answers: 33	Mathematicians Predict 2005 Cy Young Winners 11/07/2005 4:00 PM
	A pair of mathematicians from Rhode Island College predicts that pitchers Chris Carpenter of the St. Louis Cardinals and Mariano Rivera of the New York Yankees will win the 2005 Major League Baseball Cy Young awards. Not ready to call Las Vegas just yet? The researchers' formula correctly yielded all but one of the first, second and third place vote-getters in each league from 1993 to 2002. Click here for more information.
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Chris Leonard Friend of CR4 Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 1776 Good Answers: 35	#1 Mathematical models can't predict personal bias 11/07/2005 4:04 PM
	This is purely based on stats, and while baseball is the most stat driven sport there is, selection of award winners is based on two things - performance and the opinion of the voters. If Kenny Rogers's performance this year had been slightly better (statistically) than Mariano Rivera, I doubt he would win due to that whole beating up cameramen thing. Statistical models can't catch this kind of thing. I wonder if it noted the sentimentality in Roger Clemen's Cy Young win last year? __________________ Off to take on other challenges. Good luck everybody! See you around the Interwebs.
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xzi Associate Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Albany, NY Posts: 27 Good Answers: 1	#2 In reply to #1 Re:Mathematical models can't predict personal bias 11/07/2005 6:47 PM
	It sounds like they are taking that into account. They go on to say that no one in the AL had a stand-out year, statistically, and the predicted winner is actually based on more of a "lifetime achievement" basis with Mariano having never won the award before, so I think you're right but their 'formula' appears to just help humans decide--which is ultimately what the voters will do anyway.
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xzi Associate Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Albany, NY Posts: 27 Good Answers: 1	#5 In reply to #2 Re:Mathematical models can't predict personal bias 11/08/2005 9:14 PM
	0 for 1... it's Bartolo Colon for the A.L.
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Howetwo Power-User Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 394 Good Answers: 1	#3 Cy Young 11/08/2005 9:42 AM
	I guess the White Sox can't even get any mathematical respect.
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Silas Marner Power-User Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: In my house, at the loom. Posts: 197 Good Answers: 3	#4 In reply to #3 Re:Cy Young 11/08/2005 10:44 AM
	They got the trophy - I'm sure that's far better than an individual acheivement! __________________ The yoke a man creates for himself by wrong-doing will breed hate in the kindliest nature . . .
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