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Fredski
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Join Date: Feb 2011
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Will Model 3 Flop or Flourish?

08/30/2017 9:04 PM

Personally I expect a ton of them to be leased out of the gate. but I doubt the majority will exercise the option to retain the vehicle once the lease has expired. if asked why they didn't continue with the car I expect the composite answer will echo the Model S returners, "I love the car but charging is just too much of a hassle." also, younger people who live in condos or apartments simply don't have a viable place to charge if they typically park over night on the street or under a carport.

add 1000's of high voltage DC chargers or die on the vine!
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SolarEagle
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#1

Re: will Model 3 flop or flourish?

08/31/2017 12:35 AM

Well I think the greatest challenge is keeping up with demand, a problem few car makers have ever seen...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-01/tesla-s-model-3-lives-up-to-the-hype

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SolarEagle
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#2
In reply to #1

Re: will Model 3 flop or flourish?

08/31/2017 4:13 AM

http://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesla/model-3/2018/exclusive-tesla-model-3-first-drive-review/

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Tornado
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Technical Fields - Technical Writing - New Member Engineering Fields - Piping Design Engineering - New Member

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#3

Re: Will Model 3 Flop or Flourish?

08/31/2017 7:53 AM

One or the other, guaranteed.

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The Wizard
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Join Date: Jul 2017
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#4

Re: Will Model 3 Flop or Flourish?

08/31/2017 8:56 AM

The graph is false, as it shows roughly 40000 Tesla model 3 cars sold in 2015! As the first Model 3 cars have just started to be delivered in July 2017 it is impossible for any Tesla Model 3 to have been sold two years before they entered production.
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SolarEagle
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#5
In reply to #4

Re: Will Model 3 Flop or Flourish?

08/31/2017 10:10 AM

I think they are speculating that the Tesla 3 might win the small luxury car market based on projected first year sales(2018) compared to other small luxury cars, the latest figures available are from 2015...all signs point to,, they will....

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tcmtech
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#6

Re: Will Model 3 Flop or Flourish?

08/31/2017 5:11 PM

I'm curious as to when and where the first rolling blackouts will come due to too many EV's being plugged at once.

Guessing someplace in california will be first and it will play out much like the gasoline shortages back in the 60's and 70's thusly resulting in their local electrical prices going so high having a EV, or a home with electricity that works 24 hours a day every day, will become cost prohibitive to many.
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SolarEagle
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#7
In reply to #6

Re: Will Model 3 Flop or Flourish?

08/31/2017 6:17 PM

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SolarEagle
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#8
In reply to #7

Re: Will Model 3 Flop or Flourish?

08/31/2017 6:38 PM

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tcmtech
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#9
In reply to #7

Re: Will Model 3 Flop or Flourish?

08/31/2017 10:04 PM

Yea, I bet the real world cost per mile over the operational service life of the system plus vehicle without any tax breaks or government subsidies is beyond that of using a semi truck for a daily driver.

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SolarEagle
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#10
In reply to #9

Re: Will Model 3 Flop or Flourish?

08/31/2017 11:26 PM

..."I decided to look at the fuel cost of driving our 2013 Tesla Model S 23,000 miles compared to driving the BMW 7 Series, (19 mpg combined) over the same distance. Remember, this is fuel cost only.

Here are the numbers I based my calculations on:

Average cost of electricity in California: 16 cents per kilowatthour (kWh).

Average cost of premium gas in California in 2013: $4.09

Miles driven: 23,000

Fuel efficiency of the BMW 7 Series: 19 mpg

Fuel efficiency for Tesla: 3 miles/kilowatthour

And here are the results:

Cost of electricity to drive the Tesla 23,000 miles: $1,226

Cost of premium gas to drive BMW 7 Series 23,000 miles: $4,951

Money saved on fuel by driving Tesla: $3,724

Obviously, there are many factors that could change the result of these calculations. But most of the variables play in favor of the Tesla. For example, there are many free public charging stations where there is no cost for electricity. The electricity from Tesla's superchargers is also free. And many people who get a Tesla become enraptured with solar power and have panels installed on their houses. This drops the cost of electricity well below the 16-cent average. Additionally, some utilities reduce rates for charging EVs at night. Southern California Edison, for example, charges only 11 cents kWh for charging after midnight.

Also keep in mind that these figures are just for 23,000 miles. Over 100,000 miles the savings in fuel costs is $16,192."...

https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-cost-of-gas-vs-electricity.html

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tcmtech
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#12
In reply to #10

Re: Will Model 3 Flop or Flourish?

09/01/2017 4:59 PM

And again, you're betting on using external sources, you don't pay for, for a percentage of your recharge power nor are you installing 10+ KW (non tax credited no government subsidized) solar array either, as your reference picture would have to be factored to.

All, which to me, strongly comes off as fudging numbers to make your case.

Now factor all of that to the more typical American like myself that drives a higher mileage second hand vehicle (under $10K purchase value) that gets mid 20's fuel mileage and runs E30 fuel that costs 3/4 what premium costs.
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SolarEagle
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#13
In reply to #12

Re: Will Model 3 Flop or Flourish?

09/01/2017 8:19 PM

Well I could buy a vehicle for your under $10k figure and double maybe even triple the mileage you're getting...so what...

Here's a list of 'em...

https://www.compare.com/auto-insurance/guides/most-fuel-efficient-cars-under-10000

...and the figures quoted were not including any free electricity....that would make the cost even lower, just as you fudge with your purloined oil...

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gnagy
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#11

Re: Will Model 3 Flop or Flourish?

08/31/2017 11:59 PM

I've been driving a Model S for 5 years. I haven't been to a gas station in 5 years. No waiting in line, no inhaling the fumes.

Charging is a snap. When I get home, I plug the car in. It takes 10 seconds. It's charged by the morning.

There's even a Supercharger within a mile from my house, by the grocery stores and restaurants.

I can charge for free, most of the time.

Once I get solar panels, I will charge for free, pretty much all the time.

The car hasn't needed any major maintenance. Not even brake pads, thanks to the regenerative braking. It costs practically nothing to drive it.

4 years ago, left my job to work on my robotics startup. I'm self-funded and I don't have a regular income, so I have to be careful with my spending and I'm always pressed for time. Buying the Tesla back then has made my life a lot easier and cheaper.

Bottom line: I'd rather go back to dial-up internet (ouch!) than to a gasoline car, and I'm a computer nerd...
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gnagy (1); SolarEagle (7); tcmtech (3); The Wizard (1); Tornado (1)

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