Solar energy future

It looks like you want to ask a question but your sentence looks incomplete.

Can you elaborate what 'others' are included in 'others'?

If this is a complete question I am not sure what kind of answer you are expecting here? Do you want a date and time when Solar energy becomes cheaper than others?

Or do you want to know all the conditions that will have to come right so that this becomes cheaper than Fossil fuels, Nuclear, Wind energy and Hydro power?

It has been stated that the energy produced by a solar panel can never be replaced by the panel itself. This may be true and I am not arguing against that.

However in comparing the worth of different technologies the same type of costing (energy & financial) under the same conditions must be considered.

The alternatives in a rural area far away from the power grid:

Small petrol or bigger diesel gen. set: The total energy for manufacturing, installation, operating, The refining of oil or gas, Transport of fuel will exceed the value of the energy even more.

The manufacturing, installation, operating etc of wind and water generators is also high but it may be more advantages per kilo Watt.

The choice of technology depend on the requirements and means available.

Solar panels are ideal for small rural users with low financial means. with a solar panel the can supply the light they need and have radio or TV connection. It must be compared against burning candles for light and buying of batteries.

It is also ideal for supplying power for communication. In SA we have an abundance of sunlight and are operating a wireless emergency telephone communications network next to freeways on solar power. Imagine the economic and energy cost for any alternative.

Solar is also ideal for powering some applications in urban areas. The power saving because of a solar assisted water heater benefit in 2 ways. The kWh consumed in a month is about down to 60 - 70% which also places you on a lower tariff on the sliding scale.

Coal and fossil oil are nearing depletion. Alternative sources must be developed.

Solar panels has the additional feature that they are absorbing energy and therefore reduces warming.

Conclusion: It is viable to implement solar power at this stage. Don't be discouraged by doom commentators.

"Coal and fossil oil are nearing depletion. Alternative sources must be developed."

Yes, at the current global consumption/production rates (including project increase in consuptions) as of three years ago, if we don't find another barrel of oil in the world, (our study didn't include the oil we have found in Canada, Kashigstan, Oman, West Africa....Africa, China, India, etc.) The world will be depleted of projected (known) oil reserves in 40 years.

Solar energy needs to develop reliable storage capabilities before it can be commercially harnessed, unless one of the Majors already have that in their "patent bought" closet.

solar will never be the cheapest. Hydro-electric power has the longest life and cheapest cost of production.

cost of high efficiency silican is part of the problem. amorphous silicon is lots cheaper and lots less efficient. They have hopes of getting close to 50% efficiency with multi layer solar cells that intercept many wavlengths, however, these are also costly.

High efficiency low cost is the holy grail of solar and millions are spent annually to achieve small gains

Efficient transformation of light into electricity is not the most important.

However it is important to get the biggest power output per invested dollar (or Euro, it depends on what economic system you are hooked up to). The biggest improvements come from cost reduction and not of transformation efficiency improvement.

Carefully watch developments in solar cells based on Quantum Dots or those from konarka cq Graetzel cell. I think Quantum dots may have bigger potential. Developments in nano molecules go very fast at the moment.

Remember:

it all comes down to cost per Watt.

Anyway , there is plenty of free space on every continent to capture enough energy for all its inhabitants.

At present, the ONLY energy source that DOES NOT derive from solar energy is nuclear power.

We are consuming the product of millions of years of solar energy capture and conversion by photosynthesis, and doing it in a very few centuries.

We MUST increase the solar energy capture/conversion efficiency and conversion speed several orders of magnitude if we are not to freeze in the dark in a very few decades. Capture efficiency is very problematic and extremely costly on a large scale right now. Conversion speed (grow algae, extract the oil therefrom,refine it) is suitably swift, but so far very inefficient and costly. Photo-voltaic will work for stationary power during the daylight in some climates--but how to deal with nighttime and cloudy periods?

Transportation fuel is the real roadblock. Petroleum (natural or bio-produced) has an extremely high energy density per pound and per cubic foot-at ambient temp and pressure. Nothing else comes within an order of magnitude.

About the same time that nuclear generated electricity is so inexpensive that we won't use electric meters to measure amounts of electricity used, for the purpose of charging customers. (Perhaps you don't remember that prediction).

The most obvious limitation to solar energy is the "rate of insolation." From memory I believe the solar constant at mean earth orbital radius is somewhere around 2.5 calories per square centimeter per second. Because of our atmosphere, what becomes "solar insolation" at the surface is considerable less than that.

Another challenge is using the entire spectrum of the light for conversion to electricity.

At this time, the cutting edge appears to be film photovoltaics. These types of photovoltaics can be rolled and unrolled like paper, and appear to have relatively high efficiency.

Passive solar used for pre-heating water or for space heating still appear to have the quickest payback.

Economics, however, is not the only factor in application. Politics and power plays an important role in both the choice and time rate of application. Because of its nature, Solar Electric power bumps up against the existing highly centralized power structure that is dependent upon limited energy choices for its very survival.

Solar energy can be used in solar distillation for water purification and for producing the electrical power used for water condensation schemes. When you look at the misery caused by the lack of potable water on this planet, it looks like a great application. The problem being, those that need it would be the least able to afford the manufactured products. The up side to this application is that it is does not directly threaten the status quo.

As a note: At the wall plug, the efficiency of modern electrical power production is about 15 to 17 percent. Transmission losses and infrastructure costs may at some point, make "point of use" production devices (solar arrays,propane, and natural gas generators) a viable alternative to large scale production schemes.

"When will solar electric energy will become cheaper than others?"

1. Depends on your local cost. If your location is remote from power transmission or distribution, it already is.

2. Depends on your amount of consumption. For people needing a few energy efficient lights bulbs, a TV or radio, and perhaps a small efficient refrigerator, it already is cheaper than the cost of new distribution infrastructure in many countries--witness the thousands of such installations in the developing world.

3. Depends on politics. One friend said "The government will promote solar energy when they figure out a way to tax it."

4. Depends on our ethics and greediness in relation to the needs for the future, as was said so eloquently earlier about our using up all this stored solar energy in only a couple centuries.

5. Depends ultimately on each of us, because corporations are only a legal theory and governments are only groupings of people.

--JMM

One of the biggest misconceptions when people look at cost per MW of energy installed is that they do not include the upfront capital costs into the analysis.

When you build a solar thermal power plant, for example, all of the analytics you see factor in the cost of building the new power plant, amortize it over a period of say 10-20 years and then compare it to the cost of an already existing natural gas plant.

However, this is misleading for a few reasons:

1. The cost of installing a new NG plant is quite high. A new solar plant is significantly more expensive per MW

2. Once the plant is installed, you then have to spend large sums of money on the gas to power the plant. With a solar plant, these ongoing expenses are non-existent.

If you actually cash flow the analysis and have similar maintenance budgets, over a 10 year period the solar power plant at today's natural gas prices is 10-20% cheaper.

Once utilities examine these economics more carefully, it becomes clear that these systems are much more cost effective

What follows is an update from DOE. This is a big deal, why? Because it encourages further mass production of devices, which if are found to save the consumer money, will rapidly spread well beyond the borders of California. I believe that passive solar remains the quickest payback in solar investment; but try to find retrofit products at Lowes or Home Depot. We need manufactured passive solar systems at prices that make sense. New California Energy Acts Include Incentives for Solar Water Heating

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger approved a number of energy bills last week, including the Solar Water Heating and Efficiency Act of 2007. The act requires the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) to create financial incentives that will encourage the installation of solar hot water systems that displace the use of natural gas for water heating. As noted in the act, the California Solar Initiative currently provides incentives for solar hot water systems that replace electric water heaters, but no such analogue exists for systems the replace gas water heaters. The act requires the CPUC to establish a new fund for the incentives by adding a surcharge to the bills for most natural gas customers. See the bill on the California Legislative Information Web site.

Governor Schwarzenegger signed the solar water heating bill along with a number of other energy-related bills, including a bill that requires the California Energy Commission (CEC) to adopt energy efficiency standards for general purpose lights, a move that will likely phase out the use of inefficient incandescent light bulbs in the state. The bill, AB 1109, will also limit the use of toxics such as mercury in general purpose lights. In addition, AB 662 allows the CEC to set water standards for appliances, AB 1103 requires utilities to maintain energy-use data for nonresidential buildings, and AB 1560 requires the CEC to incorporate standards for water efficiency and conservation into the state's existing building standards. See the governor's press release and the information on AB 1109, AB 662, AB 1103, and AB 1560.

The governor also signed more energy-related bills later in the week, including AB 118, which raises vehicle registration fees by $2 to fund the Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program. The new program will provide grants, loans, loan guarantees, revolving loans, and other appropriate measures to develop and deploy fuels and vehicles that will help California meet its climate change policies. The governor also approved AB 809, which limits the use of state funds for hydrogen vehicles, based on their greenhouse gas benefits, and which also expands the state's definition of hydropower that is eligible for the state's renewable energy requirements. The bill includes hydropower installed in water supply systems as well as incremental hydropower additions achieved through efficiency improvements at existing facilities. In addition, the governor approved AB 532, which extends the deadline for state buildings to install solar energy systems; AB 1613, which authorizes the CPUC to require utilities to buy excess power from combined heat and power systems; and SB 1036, which eliminates the Renewable Resource Trust Fund and refunds it to customers. See AB 118, AB 809, AB 532, AB 1613, and SB 1036.