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Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/23/2018 5:37 PM

In memory of kramarat.

Finally!

From this:

Climate change may be 'fabulous' after UN... - Business Insider

To this:

Administration report attributes climate change to 'human...

Released on Black Friday when nobody was looking.

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#1

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/23/2018 6:00 PM
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#3
In reply to #1

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/23/2018 7:12 PM

You really aren't that slow, are you?

Maybe it's all that emissivity that's making it snow.

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#2

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/23/2018 6:44 PM

The caboose at the back of the train has spoken, but will the idjiot at the front of the train listen?

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#4

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/23/2018 10:57 PM

Preventing any disaster is always a hard sell. Preventing a future global disaster by refusing immediate local rewards may be impossible to sell. The paradox for too many is how to survive long enough to experience a future disaster. What has always pi$$ed moi off is how deniers dismiss the science for no better reason than they don't like the results.

Because of the impending positive feedback loops about to engage I'm afraid the sacrifices needed to stop this global process are already too severe to be embraced by the world. The climate will be changing in ways few will enjoy.

On the positive side, I expect to miss the worst aspects of this slow moving problem.

Good Luck

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#5
In reply to #4

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/23/2018 11:54 PM

"I expect to miss the worst aspects of this slow moving problem."

So will the self serving, money worshiping people who allowed caused it to happen.

Future generations of their offspring may not escape what they have wrought.

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#6

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/24/2018 1:41 PM

Figure 1: Atmospheric CO2 concentration is just barely above the life-sustaining levels of 150 ppm. For life to have real buffer against mass extinction, CO2 needs to be closer to 1000 ppm.

Figure 2: Plant growth vs CO2 concentration. Plants really begin to suffer once CO2 concentrations fall below 500 ppm. Source: click here.

http://notrickszone.com/2013/05/17/atmospheric-co2-concentrations-at-400-ppm-are-still-dangerously-low-for-life-on-earth/

https://www.amazon.com/History-Atmospheric-Effects-Ecosystems-Ecological-ebook/dp/B000QCS48M/ref=sr_1_1_twi_kin_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1543084671&sr=1-1&keywords=9780387220697

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#7
In reply to #6

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/24/2018 2:58 PM

Just as a year's worth of weather does not constitute climate change, a single, cheery picked citation will never support your blind following of an uninformed self centered administration, Hell bent on extracting as much money for themselves as possible, future generations be damned.

Maybe you'll have no one left on Earth when you die, but I will.

I'd like to try to make their existence something better than where we are headed now.

Facts don't lie! Politicians do.

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#8
In reply to #7

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/24/2018 4:00 PM

Hey I helped save the ozone layer, probably saved all life on Earth once already.....

...but then those pesky unintended consequences kicked in....

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2097581-saving-the-ozone-layer-is-warming-the-planet-but-it-can-be-fixed/?cmpid=ILC|NSNS|2017-GLOBAL-inlinelink&utm_medium=ILC&utm_source=NSNS&utm_campaign=inlinelink

....and to add insult to injury...

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2138753-ozone-layer-recovery-will-be-delayed-by-chemical-leaks/

No, saving the world is a young man's folly....I'm just going to endeavor to enjoy the time I have left...

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#9
In reply to #8

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/24/2018 4:38 PM

Climate crisis as greenhouse gas levels reach record highs. New Scientist:

http://www.newscientist.com/article/2186326-climate-crisis-as-greenhouse-gas-levels-reach-record-highs/

There are more, but.....................................why bother?

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#10
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Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/24/2018 5:43 PM

It's really not so serious as a lot of people would have us believe...eventually I think things will work themselves out for the better....They say that the average temps have increased 2 degrees in my lifetime, I haven't noticed any change at all....and anything to make the flowers bigger and the plants more robust in my garden is OK by me...Glaciers melting?, nobody would even know about it if there weren't specials on the tv about it....Sea rise?, the property I just bought is at 30' elevation, yes there's a little ridge that runs along the coast, and I'm just on top....so worst case scenario, I have beach front property in 100 years.....Eventually somebody will figure out that we need to start building more nuclear power plants....but elevated CO2 levels may turn out to be a panacea, and all will be forgotten....

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#11
In reply to #10

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/24/2018 7:30 PM

....and just for the record I checked the seasonal average temperatures for my city on http://www.intellicast.com/Local average lows for jan feb were 50° and 51°F and the average highs for jul aug were 90° and 91°F....Then I went to https://www.vox.com/a/weather-climate-change-us-cities-global-warming and checked what the dire ests were for the temperature av change for the year 2000 to 2050....starting in 2000 it was winter low of 52.6°F and a summer high of 90.5°F with a 2050 est increasing to 55.6°F winter low and 94.6°F summer high...and increase of 3°F and 4.1°F respectively....so in 18 years the low has actually dropped 2°F and the high is exactly the same.....so, no global warming over the last 20 years...and with a seasonal average temperature swing of ~40°, I don't think a few degrees one way or the other will even be noticeable, even if it was to occur...which I doubt....

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#31
In reply to #9

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/25/2018 11:31 PM
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#38
In reply to #31

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/26/2018 11:58 AM

..."

So many processes have to be considered in the carbon cycle that it is extremely difficult to keep them in mind, and impossible to calculate without building a computer model to simulate them. Scientists interested in the

carbon cycle have built a number of such models over the years. Such models can have between 50 and 100 interacting equations describing all the different processes of the carbon cycle that are relevant to the problem of how carbon dioxide changes through geologic time.
To what extent should the answers generated from such models be trusted? All one can say is this: Models are the best we can do, everything else is ballpark back-of the envelope stuff. This means we should use models to educate ourselves about possibilities, realizing that their output produces probabilities not measurements.

"...

So true...Empirical evidence is reality....

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#30
In reply to #7

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/25/2018 11:29 PM
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#35
In reply to #7

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/26/2018 10:09 AM

Yes Lyn, that USED to be the goal of parenting. To provide a better life for your children and children's children as Teddy would say. Today however the selfishness of the baby boomers has all but destroyed the future for their children and they don't even care. Frankly, to hear some speak you would think they had children ONLY because they were too STUPID to figure out how they happened. It is obvious they are not interested in protecting their childrens future, just their immediate comfort level.

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#40
In reply to #35

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/26/2018 12:28 PM

Rubbish...

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#41
In reply to #40

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/26/2018 1:37 PM

Why yes, Rubbish does contribute also. Landfills are not sustainable either.

But, the main contribution seems to be coming from that river in Egypt.

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#13
In reply to #6

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/24/2018 11:57 PM

This looks more like an embarrassingly bad paper than a refutation of anything. The four plots in figure 2 have no more than six data points and as few as three data points to force a curve fitting. This implies to me that some additional aspect other than just CO2 levels (possibly N, P nutrient levels) are scattering an effect. As for figure 1, showing CO2 levels were greatly elevated when humanity couldn't survive here on Earth is kind of the reason for alarm in the rise of CO2 levels.

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#14
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Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/25/2018 12:15 AM

Just because we probably didn't exist, doesn't mean we couldn't have survived...Humans probably could have survived as far back as 500 million years...There are literally 100's of studies on the effect of elevated CO2 levels on plant growth....In fact some say that the plant growth is accelerating and nearing intake levels equal to anthropogenic production...certainly is slowing CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere...

...here's a good read on it....

"Observed and modeled rise in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate from 1960-2012. Vertical grey line indicates departure from increasing trend (1959-1990, solid red; 1959-2002, dashed red) to no evident trend (2002-2014, blue). Source: Keenan et al., (2016)"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/surge-in-plant-growth-explains-slower-co2-rise-over-past-decade

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#19
In reply to #14

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/25/2018 11:20 AM

Probably didn't exist? Clearly you've never studied anything in anthropology. At least you did passively recognize my point that humanity didn't exist during the vast majority of time in your earlier plot. Could humans survive 500 million years ago, I say NO! While this was 40 million years after the Cambrian explosion in animal life, the ecosystem was obviously very different from today. I'm not saying a miraculous time traveler would drop dead the moment the Tardis door opened. I am saying such a homo sapien time traveler would not succeed in making a home then. The basic necessities of food, water, and shelter would be questionable at best.

I don't doubt at all that higher CO2 levels will promote faster plant growth, up to a point. The paper I cited agreed with that conclusion, too but pointed out that other nutrients must also be sufficiently available. I doubted the validity of those four extracted curves from the sparse number of apparent data points above today's level of 400 ppm. (A side note: The paper those plots are from was interested in the effect on plant growth of lower than contemporary CO2 levels [about 350 ppm at the time of that study] during recent glacial periods having such low CO2 levels. For these levels there is a reasonable amount of data points. Extrapolating outside of a studies range of interest may be fine to request for a new study in that extrapolated range but it smacks of charlatanism to draw a conclusion from outside of that range.)

This increased plant growth rate with higher CO2 levels does mitigate how quickly the CO2 levels rise. This is the point of your recent citation. (The plot you chose to post is kind of useless and misleading without the rest of the article.) I do wonder if you noticed the very first sentence of this report. "It’s unequivocal that human activity is raising CO2 levels in the atmosphere." This sentence confirms instead of refutes what the OP (Lyn) originally posted.

Denial is not a river in Egypt.

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#20
In reply to #19

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/25/2018 11:42 AM

I've never disagreed that the CO2 levels were rising....but this study shows that the rate of rise has leveled off at 2 ppm annually, at that time, some 4-6 years ago....whether the rate of rise is declining at this time, or will in the near future, who can say....Plant growth is probably still accelerating, and I suspect it will continue to do so for the foreseeable future...

..."An international team of 32 authors from 24 institutions in eight countries has just published a study titled "Greening of the Earth and its Drivers" in the journal Nature Climate Change showing significant greening of a quarter to one-half of the Earth's vegetated lands using data from the NASA-MODIS and NOAA-AVHRR satellite sensors of the past 33 years. The greening represents an increase in leaves on plants and trees. Green leaves produce sugars using energy in the sunlight to mix carbon dioxide (CO2) drawn in from the air with water and nutrients pumped in from the ground. These sugars are the source of food, fiber and fuel for life on Earth. More sugars are produced when there is more CO2 in the air, and this is called CO2 fertilization.

"We were able to tie the greening largely to the fertilizing effect of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration by tasking several computer models to mimic plant growth observed in the satellite data," says co-author Prof. Ranga Myneni of the Department of Earth and Environment at Boston University, USA. Burning oil, gas, coal and wood for energy releases CO2 in to the air. The amount of CO2 in the air has been increasing since the industrial age and currently stands at a level not seen in at least half-a-million years."...

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2016-04-co2-fertilization-greening-earth.html#jCp

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#21
In reply to #20

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/25/2018 12:04 PM

....but this study shows that the rate of rise has leveled off at 2 ppm annually, at that time, some 4-6 10-14 years ago.....

ps; oh and it seems the elevated co2 levels also seem to be helping to repair the hole in the ozone level...yeah remember the last big threat to humanity? ...you don't hear much about it any more...but it's still there....

pss; I meant man's ancestors...

and enough oxygen to survive...

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#22
In reply to #20

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/25/2018 12:40 PM

Yes, the rate of rise has leveled. In other words the rising slope of CO2 has reduced. Can all of this reduction in the rate of climb in the last 4-6 years be attributed to more plant life on land and ocean? Maybe the actual study this article is referring to compared the global fossil fuel consumption to this decline but a simple search provided me this graph:

(Once again the CR4 decimation of image data has rendered an almost useless image. Clicking on the image will bring up the article and the interactive graph.)

It looks to me as though the nearly a half decade ago reduction in the rate of climb in fossil fuel consumption will be part of the reduction in the CO2 rate of climb. Will this explain all of it, probably not. Will it explain most of it, only a more in depth analysis of raw data might answer this. Will increased plant growth on land and sea halt the CO2 rise regardless of fossil fuel consumption, obviously it will not stop it although it certainly can and will help. That is if we don't cut down more plants for space or allow too many large scale vegetation fires to form.

<Please, a moment of silence for those who died in the recent California and other state and country wildfires. >

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#24
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Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/25/2018 1:52 PM

...."The 2018 BP Statistical Review of World Energy that was released earlier this month showed a new all-time high for global carbon dioxide emissions in 2017, which were 426 million metric tons higher than in 2016. This was 1.6% higher than carbon dioxide emissions in 2016, and was higher than the 10-year average growth rate of 1.3%."...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/06/29/global-carbon-dioxide-emissions-set-new-record/#2903e6d843a9

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#52
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Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/28/2018 1:56 PM

During the Cambrian "explosion" CO2 levels were 4000 ppm. Those levels gave the earth more life than ever before or since.

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#12

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/24/2018 11:35 PM

To the Ineffable All,

Man made climate change is silly science, like evolutionary theory. Atmospheric CO2 is 0.0391% of the air. Atmospheric water vapor varies from 0% in the Gobi Desert to 4% over the tropical oceans. Both CO2 and H2O have about the same heat insulating property. Therefore, because CO2 is a trace gas, and insulating is a physical process, CO2 can increase by 10 fold and still not compete with water vapor. So CO2 cannot possibly be the cause of global warming.

The reason so many folks promote this rubbish is that it puts a lot of dinners on the table for them. Think of all the government grants, endowed chairs to universities and government agencies that need something to regulate.

Ratch

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#15

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/25/2018 1:18 AM

Your using CNN as your source of facts?!! THE fake news!!! Really, Lyn, you've reached a new low. You've been shown over and over again how the government has changed the data to suit their agenda. But, like the people of Galileo's time, you refuse to look.

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#18
In reply to #15

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/25/2018 10:28 AM

"you've reached a new low."

Really?

How's the weather down there where you are? I can't see down that far for the smog!

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#23
In reply to #15

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/25/2018 12:57 PM

Just curious. Do you get your "news" from Breitbart or Infowars?

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#28
In reply to #25

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/25/2018 10:33 PM

Six articles about the same report doesn't add credibility.

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#57
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Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/28/2018 4:50 PM

It only counts if you do consensus truth. If enough people believe it, then it must be true...at least to those people.

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#16

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/25/2018 3:57 AM

Looking at the effects of CO2 on human health: https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/chemical/carbondioxide.htm

we have a good buffer outdoors before we will see the effects ourselves, but hiding indoors is much worse.

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#17

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/25/2018 8:48 AM

An observation ,,,

If you post a message using media sources in supporting global warming, you get a " Good Answer "

If you post a message showing graphs, analysis and scientific research, you get an " Off Topic ".

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#42
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Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/26/2018 3:57 PM

The current score is 5 2 1.

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#43
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Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/26/2018 4:36 PM

Google: us global change research program.

Scroll to bottom, see the 13 symbols.

I chose the department of agriculture

( the 13 agencies provided data for usgca to compile their report )

On USDA, I went to : office of chief economist / blog.

See: 06/08/15. Study finds increasing wood pellet demand boosts forest growth, reduces green house gas ( reduces ? And this from an agency that contributed to a climate change report ) emissions, creates jobs.

I wonder if I went to the other 12, if I could find similar stuff.

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#26

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/25/2018 8:27 PM

I practice good stewardship of the earth, but for all the doomsday bleating across the global community, here's wondering how many of the signatories of the so-called Paris "Agreement" are abiding by its aims to mitigate their anthropogenic global warming...

/trials and fibrillations

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#27
In reply to #26

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/25/2018 10:25 PM

"I practice good stewardship of the earth"

Sure. The guilty dog barks the loudest.

The grown-ups in the room will do what they can to make up for the children.

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#29
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Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/25/2018 10:58 PM

I have never found grown-ups in the AGW bleating community, only children. The last big and obnoxious one, Mr. Obama, never acted like there was a crisis yet continued—with his wife—to enlarge their carbon footprints as long as each had access to their Government jumbo jets; total AGW hypocrisy.

/And so it goes

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#37
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Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/26/2018 11:06 AM

Why does an ad hominem attack merit any GA?

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#54
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Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/28/2018 2:52 PM

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#73
In reply to #27

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/29/2018 10:46 PM

And I suppose you think you're one of the grown ups. Have you stopped eating beef? Not likely. This is from a source you're sure to believe:

https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=7903722&page=1

grow up

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#32

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/26/2018 12:16 AM

I don't think there are any leaders of developed nations willing to purposely trash their own economy for the sake of iffy climate predictions in a distant future scenario....economic hardship takes lives just as readily as natural disasters do...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/06/climate/world-emissions-goals-far-off-course.html

Fossil fuels, carbon emissions, GDP, life expectancy, have all come hand in hand to provide the quality of life we now enjoy...

...."From 1750 to 2009, global life expectancy more than doubled, from 26 years to 69 years; global population increased 8-fold, from 760 million to 6.8 billion; and incomes increased 11-fold, from $640 to $7,300. Never before had the indicators of the success of the human species advanced as rapidly as in the past quarter millennium.

Fossil fuels are the chief energy source of modern civilization. Accordingly, global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have increased rapidly along with life expectancy and per capita income. Goklany illustrates these trends with a graph that bears a striking resemblance to a hockey stick."...

http://www.globalwarming.org/2012/12/27/the-real-hockey-stick/

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#36
In reply to #32

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/26/2018 10:37 AM

Yes! GA This is the crux of the problem.

The rewards from burning fossil fuels are immediate. The dramatic consequences from burning fossil fuels are in the future. The presently observable effects from earlier use of fossil fuels are mostly subtle and to the untrained eye easy to dismiss. Unfortunately between now and when the effects are dramatic enough to become undeniable there is a projected point in time where no amount of mitigations can prevent the dramatic consequences from occurring.

Interestingly the NY Times article shows that India and China are predicted to have lower CO2 emissions than the Paris agreement levels they pledged. It also shows that the Paris agreement levels are not expected to prevent a 2°C rise in global temperatures.

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#39
In reply to #36

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/26/2018 12:15 PM

The "dramatic consequences " are inferred by dodgy climate models, not set in stone as you seem to characterize here....In any case higher levels of CO2 are a fact of life now, and the consequences, or perhaps benefits, will play out over time, a long long time....We won't know the whole truth for several hundred years I think....if ever...

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#33

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/26/2018 4:13 AM

Both links have one problem.

They are both headlining the name "Trump".

The difference is relatively small, one is designed for a direct Trump bashing and the other one is in preparation in a even more explicit Trump bashing.

What is your point in posting?

Oh and what is your point in reading these?

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#34
In reply to #33

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/26/2018 9:18 AM

Climate change may be 'fabulous' after UN... - Business Insider

The UN report, which is based on more than 6,000 scientific references from 91 authors across 40 countries, outlines the impact of global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels The UN report warns that the world is rapidly running out of time before the planet will see catastrophic effects.

Again it's the UN report!

Administration report attributes climate change to 'human...

A new US GOVERNMENT REPORT delivers a dire warning about climate change and its devastating impacts on the health and economy of the country.Coming from the US Global Change Research Program,A new US GOVERNMENT REPORT delivers a dire warning about climate change and its devastating impacts on the health and economy of the country.

Again, it's a US GOVERNMENT REPORT!

I was hoping for more intelligent responses but,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, guess not.

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#47
In reply to #34

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/28/2018 5:47 AM

Now that is funny! You wanted intelligent responses about these articles?

What's there to say?

The catastrophic predictions are just that, predictions.

Show me one historic event in where mankind was acting before the catastrophe was to happen .

Is Naples moving away from the volcanic danger? Has New York moved one bit on the "impeding" danger of sea level rise? Any other city?

I think you knew what you will get and this is exactly what you got.

And since when do you lend that much credit to a government report?

Its all political and has no scientific merits nor any engineering ones.

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#50
In reply to #47

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/28/2018 1:31 PM

Incorrect my friend. If you remember we DID effectively mitigate and then reverse the damage that fluorocarbons where doing to the Ozone.

Granted this was a time before the oligarchy took over most governments so legislation was quickly passed, implemented, products removed from market, and companies fined for violations, and then things started to turn around. Today we are almost back to pre 1980 levels of ozone.

So Yes, we have beaten this kind of thing before, back when we were actually concerned about the future and not just how much money we could make, maintaining our comfort level, and denying responsibility while passing the damage and the cost on to our children, and our childrens children. Hardly a model of responsible adult behavior.

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#53
In reply to #50

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/28/2018 2:41 PM

Nice try but did you think a denier would accept any kind of actual data as true.

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#58
In reply to #53

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/28/2018 5:05 PM

I don't know which kind of denier you're talking about, but it doesn't matter. It's true in both cases.

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#60
In reply to #53

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/28/2018 5:10 PM

Isn't denier a scale used to measure the weight of fabric? I guess fabric works better than a tissue of lies.

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#55
In reply to #50

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/28/2018 4:19 PM
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#56
In reply to #55

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/28/2018 4:43 PM

Thanks for that SE, it does state clearly that the remediation efforts of the Montreal agreement were successful. The upper atmosphere is recovering as expected.

However, the lower atmospheric ozone later isn't. So it follows that what is effecting the lower ozone layer may not be dependent on the same mechanisms that the upper atmosphere is. Not that that should surprise anyone. (nor would it surprise me that it is auto emissions)

The simple truth is, we are still learning and doing the best we can. It's great big world and a far more complex system than we currently understand. That being the case is not an excuse for doing nothing as some would try. It is important to avoid the mistake of the captain of the Titanic. Hubris.

One of the biggest problems with deniers is their lack of scope. They nit pick and "drill down" until they find some tidbit they can cling to like a drowning man to buoy their world view for a few more years. Hence the title of the thread. To us in the human engineering field (psychology) these sort of self inflicted brain wounds is why we have jobs. LoL

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#61
In reply to #56

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/28/2018 11:06 PM

Yeah they drill down and find mistakes....

"Climate contrarian uncovers scientific error, upends major ocean warming study"

November 16, 2018 by Joshua Emerson Smith

...""Our error margins are too big now to really weigh in on the precise amount of warming that's going on in the ocean," Keeling said. "We really muffed the error margins."

A correction has been submitted to the journal Nature.

According to the most recent IPCC report, climate emissions need to be cut by 20 percent by 2030 and then zeroed out by 2075 to keep warming from exceeding 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels.

Authors of the recent study had previously claimed that emissions levels in coming decades would need to be 25 percent lower to keep warming under that 2-degree cap."...

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-11-climate-contrarian-uncovers-scientific-error.html#jCp

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#62
In reply to #61

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/28/2018 11:27 PM

So what? The author of one study out of 918,000 by this Google Scholar count admitted that they made a mistake. I have no idea how many scholarly studies from this search are measurements, theoretical extrapolations or what but one erroneous study does not invalidate all of them to anyone but a denier.

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#63
In reply to #62

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/29/2018 2:33 AM

These studies are all part of modelling software that is predicting the future based on assumptions...If you believe people can predict the future, how about feeding us some lottery number winners, or football game winners, or political office winners, or really anything at all.....let's see if you can predict your local temperature high for two weeks hence, that should be child's play compared to 50 years out....nobody can predict the future...Why isn't the greening effect mentioned in the reports? It will have an impact....was it overlooked? What does that tell you?

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#65
In reply to #63

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/29/2018 9:13 AM

You asked for a football prediction, I predict that half of the NFL teams playing this Sunday will win. As for Powerball, I predict 5 numbers will be selected between 1 and 69 and 1 red number between 1 and 26 will be selected next.

I also predict that not only will you likely not ever read any actual climate change scientific papers. I also predict that from the articles you do read about climate change you will not understand what the scholarly papers are predicting and what they are not predicting.

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#70
In reply to #65

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/29/2018 2:32 PM
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#71
In reply to #70

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/29/2018 2:42 PM

Yet still 100% true. You asked for anything and I delivered. Now, what was I saying about those who cannot admit an error?

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#72
In reply to #71

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/29/2018 4:30 PM

Claiming something is true before it has happened is just the kind of cockiness, on a much grander scale, that we are talking about here...What if one of the games is halted? What then? Will you admit you were wrong, or try to weasel out with some explanation?

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#76
In reply to #72

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/30/2018 9:56 AM

I'm beginning to think you are deliberately misunderstanding me. You are stuck in denial. There is no question about that.

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#67
In reply to #63

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/29/2018 10:09 AM

Ya Know SE, that is kinda funny. To think NASA just got lucky. That years of "modelling, and predictive analysis is not what allowed InSight to make a perfect touch down exactly where they intended it too years ago when it was launched.

Your contention is they got lucky because such mathematical analysis and predictive modeling is worthless because its all theory.

You call your self an engineer? Please inform us of the things you have designed and built so we can avoid them because by your own argument your numbers are worthless and your skills all smoke and mirrors.

Now obviously I don't believe you are an incompetent idiot so I'll have to declare shenanigans on that argument. But I did enjoy the giggle it gave me. Thanks.

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#68
In reply to #67

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/29/2018 12:08 PM

OH NO! You spelled the wrong "two", "too" in that reply. This means that everything you say and you have ever said is a deceptive lie!

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#69
In reply to #68

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/29/2018 1:11 PM

2 troo

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#64
In reply to #62

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/29/2018 5:04 AM

Says the guys who just said:

Nice try but did you think a denier would accept any kind of actual data as true.

In science the tool to dismiss a theory is to falsify the proposition, statement, theory or hypothesis, and prove it wrong. A falsification therefore becomes hard data and fact!

You might actually start reading some papers instead of just reading the press propaganda. You will be surprised how many "mistakes" the peer process tolerates and how the wording in the papers can remind you of snake oil selling.

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#66
In reply to #64

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/29/2018 10:02 AM

I do read scientific papers. That is part of my job. A majority of the technical errors are caught by peer review before publication but this process is certainly not perfect. (That's the problem with using people to review a paper.) When a paper with errors gets published and those errors are discovered a respected scholarly author publically acknowledges the error. That is precisely what this author did.

As for the wording in these papers, this is a perpetual problem with multi-cultural authors and with laymen misinterpreting the intent from the words chosen.

This error detection and writing process do not mean the system is so flawed that nothing can ever be known, quite the contrary. This is precisely how new knowledge is forged.

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#74
In reply to #66

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/29/2018 11:24 PM

"18 spectacularly wrong apocalyptic predictions made around the time of the first Earth Day in 1970, expect more this year

In the May 2000 issue of Reason Magazine, award-winning science correspondent Ronald Bailey wrote an excellent article titled “Earth Day, Then and Now” to provide some historical perspective on the 30th anniversary of Earth Day. In that article, Bailey noted that around the time of the first Earth Day, and in the years following, there was a “torrent of apocalyptic predictions” and many of those predictions were featured in his Reason article. Well, it’s now the 45th anniversary of Earth Day, and a good time to ask the question again that Bailey asked 15 years ago: How accurate were the predictions made around the time of the first Earth Day in 1970? The answer: “The prophets of doom were not simply wrong, but spectacularly wrong,” according to Bailey. Here are 18 examples of the spectacularly wrong predictions made around 1970 when the “green holy day” (aka Earth Day) started:"...

http://www.aei.org/publication/18-spectacularly-wrong-apocalyptic-predictions-made-around-the-time-of-the-first-earth-day-in-1970-expect-more-this-year-2/

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#75
In reply to #74

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/30/2018 9:55 AM

18 spectacularly wrong apocalyptic predictions made around the time of the first Earth Day in 1970, expect more this year

You really should refine these apocalyptic predictions for this coming year into two categories.

1.) apocalyptic predictions

2.) apocalyptic predictions based solely or even partially on a political agenda

I have found that topics posted like this, that are brought up are from the later category. No matter how legitimate a topic could be, one that is well referenced, with statistics, facts and empirical data, because its from the latter category, is polluted and because of that, most don't care to separate the legitimate data from the political pollution.

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#77
In reply to #74

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

12/03/2018 11:00 AM

Climate change is not an apocalyptic "Prediction."

I am going to assume you are playing devils advocate here.

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#78
In reply to #77

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

12/03/2018 12:04 PM

Actually, going by the climate cyclic history repeats itself, it is.

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#79
In reply to #78

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

12/03/2018 12:43 PM

Which is how it "appears".

But as anyone with training in scientific method knows, history only works as a guide when you remove our influence.

But we are here and we are changing numerous climate variables, most without any understanding of the consequences of those changes.

For instance, our atmospheric gases are not equal to any historic record because well, there has never been 7 billion people on the planet before. This is a unique situation that historic record can not predict or even guide.

Science, rigid for a reason.

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#59
In reply to #55

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/28/2018 5:06 PM

Contrary to what the article says, the mechanism for lower atmospheric ozone is understood, or at least were understood in 1994 when I was taking atmospheric chemistry, and we are actively suppressing formation of lower level ozone through environmental regulation. Ozone forms in the presence of ultraviolet radiation, nitrous oxide molecules and organic molecules. Currently in the United States and California have aestablished attainment areas to suppress low altitude ozone formation by internal combustion engine regulation to reduce NOx production and control of organic solvents, such as tolulene and naphthalene, to reduce the level of ozone production. This is an unintended consequence of regulations to deal with some other issue.

BTW, the French had high latitude expeditions that had ultraviolet measurements indicating a hole in the ozone layer in 1914. The ozone layer appears to have never been broken to begin with.

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#44

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/27/2018 3:58 PM

Plants may get a growth boost from higher CO2, but they are not impervious to the damage of drought, floods, storms, extreme temperatures both hot and cold.

Even in the Southeast (with far less noticeable effects than the north) there are some documented changes which are not beneficial to agriculture:

"Rainfall is among the most important climate variables for agriculture and water resource management. Since 1895, annual total rainfall in the three Southeast states shows great year-to-year variability, with rainfall increasing about 10% for all three states during the past century (Figure 4). State and regional averages of annual total rainfall mask a great deal of the variation among and even within counties and variability in timing of rainfall within each year. Southeast rainfall totals are strongly influenced by tropical storms. One notable change over the past century is an increased frequency of rainfall events of two inches or more. While these storms increase the total annual rainfall, they are less useful to agriculture than smaller rainfall events distributed evenly during the growing season."

https://climatecenter.fsu.edu/topics/climate-change

IMO the fact that someone doesn't care, has a relatively fortunate situation, and wishes only to live out his days in peace and comfort, should not prevent that person from a rational understanding of what is happening globally, and the basis for the well-founded concerns of others.

Denial is not a seasonal tide that deposits the delta of the mind with fresh nutrients for new thoughts and ideas.

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#45
In reply to #44

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/27/2018 6:53 PM

New study shows vegetation controls the future of the water cycle

April 2, 2018, Columbia University School of Engineering and Applied Science

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-04-vegetation-future.html#jCp

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#46
In reply to #45

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/27/2018 7:27 PM

There was some discussion at the SE climate link about the impact of forestation in your region. It's really interesting!! Tx for the link.

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#48

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/28/2018 12:26 PM

Read the report.

Starts out with an If and states a Then.

Stupid If..Stupid Then.

We need an If that is reasonably beyond the theological, "You must believe."

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#49
In reply to #48

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/28/2018 1:22 PM

There have been a lot of reports cited in this thread. If you are not going to identify which one then I'm not going to claim that I read it.

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#51
In reply to #49

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

11/28/2018 1:39 PM

I was referring to the original poster's subject federal report.

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#80

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

12/04/2018 7:04 AM

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#81
In reply to #80

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

12/04/2018 10:51 AM

Ok, who is Tony Heller and why should I accept anything he says as even empirical?

Just because he has 10,000 subscribers? .

I don't watch videos. I read. I usually start with the Bona vidas and then move to the body of data before reading conclusions. This way I consider the source, then whether or not the data is verifiable, and then see if the conclusions follow. That way I am not influenced by things not pertinent to the discussion.

I have to assume this was to make a point, so please by all means elaborate.

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#82
In reply to #81

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

12/04/2018 11:14 AM

Apparently, Tony Heller is not even his real name.

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#83
In reply to #81

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

12/04/2018 11:33 AM

Have you done a fact check on any of the reports?

I have.

Unfortunately the video is accurate in many respects. I say unfortunately because much time and treasure goes into the political and regulatory arena because of badly corrupted junk science. I was able to observe first hand the application of large government grants to support a research project leading to regulation change and increased individual costs based on a research program postulated with a largely unsupported "If" as the starting point.

I despair for the future generation that has been taught not to think critically and not to put in the effort to drill down and seriously review the raw data before reaching a conclusion.

We've reached the point where if you want to publish, you get reviewed by sympathetic peers. If you need a legal injunction, you find a sympathetic judge. It's to the point that "my gang is bigger than your gang, so I must be right" and everyone else follows their own pocketbook.

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#84
In reply to #83

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

12/04/2018 1:38 PM

Of course, some of the reports accurately identify errors. Cherry picking will always find outliers. Claiming errors without citing the specific errors is one of the bastions of denial. Nothing can be refuted or explained. Often an apparent error is due to nothing more than a misunderstanding of the report.

Then again, nothing can persuade a denier.

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#85
In reply to #83

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

12/05/2018 9:58 AM

Oh, I don't doubt there are Facts sprinkled in the video.

It's just one of those old Midwestern things, We don't go looking for milk from horses.

YouTube, like Fox, are chartered as entertainment. I don't expect solid science from YouTube and I don't expect actual news from Fox.

Does that mean they won't occasionally have those things on their services, not at all, it just means they are not reliable and usually it will take too long to work around the bias, specially if they are trying to hide it or deceive you.

Again, if it looks like a duck, and it quacks like a duck, and it walks like a duck....

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#86
In reply to #85

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

12/05/2018 10:58 AM

Aphorisms, as always, are cheaper by the bakers dozen.

Time to grab the bull by the horns and let the chips fall where they may. Time to knock the chip off your shoulder, I'll get the axe. A chain is no stronger than it's missing link. False is like, as in false teeth.

It's the magician waving one hand while pocketing the vanishing quarter with the other.

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#87
In reply to #86

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

12/05/2018 11:18 AM

Aphorisms, cliches, as we learned in anthropology, these things become timeless intentionally because they state a basic truth in a humorous or memorable way so that the knowledge can easily be passed from generation to generation. It was part of that, "we are responsible for the world we leave our children" thinking that seems to be lacking now days and does not bode well for the future of mankind.

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#88
In reply to #87

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

12/05/2018 2:38 PM

Aphorisms are also used to perpetuate stereotypes and broad brush generalizations, such as, Why did the chicken cross the road? To show the possum it could be done. A very degrading anti-possumist stereotype.

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#89
In reply to #88

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

12/05/2018 2:55 PM

Well ya know J, we need to pass a law to protect the rights of possums from unfair characterizations and then we need to create a government agency to enforce them.

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#90
In reply to #89

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

12/05/2018 2:58 PM

Won't happen until they allow possums to register and vote.

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#91
In reply to #90

Re: Denial is Not A River in Egypt

12/05/2018 3:07 PM

Possums got rights, too.

I miss Walt's wit.

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