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Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

08/29/2019 11:15 PM

As a Radio Amateur and long-time short-wave listener, I am well aware of solar cycles that affect radio communication, weather, and unpredictable solar flares.

There is no consensus on solar cycle 25. There is a wide variation on what is predicted. Let’s start with this story from the Washington Post:

‘Scott McIntosh, a physicist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, says the latest information would suggest solar cycle 25 may actually be stronger than 24. “The present Geomagnetic data indicate a higher SC25 [solar cycle 25],” he tweeted. The decline in sunspot activity through cycle 24 was worrisome to some space weather scientists in that it suggested a return to a lengthy “solar drought,” reminiscent of the Maunder Minimum period of 1645-1715. Records show the sun was essentially spotless for this lengthy period, coinciding with the “Little Ice Age” in Europe and tickling the interest of scientists to wonder whether there is a cause-and-effect relationship between solar behavior and Earth’s climate.’

scientists-predict-new-solar-cycle-is-about-begin-that-it-will-be-stronger-than-last-one

Now another with a different “spin” is Space Weather Archive:

“We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak maximum, preceded by a long, deep minimum,” says panel co-chair Lisa Upton, a solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp… “Weak” Solar Cycle 24 produced a number of intense X-class solar flares, strong geomagnetic storms, and even a Ground Level Event (GLE) when solar energetic particles reached Earth’s surface.

spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/04/10/experts-predict-the-solar-cycle/

This link from Sky and Telescope has more solar information, but is quite dated:

“The Sun is acting weird. It typically puts on a pageant of magnetic activity every 11 years for aurora watchers and sungazers alike, but this time it overslept. When it finally woke up (a year late), it gave the weakest performance in 100 years.”

astronomy-news/the-weakest-solar-cycle-in-100-years/

This recent Electroverse link has some dire predictions:

“NASA is effectively forecasting a return to the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) but gives no mention of the brutal cold, crop loss, famine, war and powerful Volcanic eruptions associated with it…”

nasa-predicts-next-solar-cycle-will-be-lowest-in-200-years-dalton-minimum-levels

Here is a recent report that makes no predictions, but has an interesting chart:

universetoday.com/139833/are-we-witnessing-the-start-of-solar-cycle-25/

Finally, the following site has much information, but can be quite hard to read:

http://www.solarham.net/

What are your predictions of the next solar cycle and what do you base them on?

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#1

Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

08/30/2019 8:58 AM

I predict that one of these solar weather predictors will be close to what will actually happen.

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#5
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

08/30/2019 10:34 AM

Statistically, I agree, it’s like saying a broken clock says the correct time twice a day.

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#6
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

08/30/2019 11:17 AM

Yeah but you're never really sure if "now" is when the clock is right.

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#45
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

10/04/2019 11:10 AM

I was struck by this statement "tickling the interest of scientists to wonder whether there is a cause-and-effect relationship between solar behavior and Earth’s climate.’"

Is there something else that drives the temperature of the surface of Earth? .

This is like a pilot says the flaps might have some impact on the lift of a plane.....really that is so interesting!!!

Obviously solar flares are hiccups that cause disruptions on Earth but I hope that statement was a new desk trying to be clever with a science topic they know little about.

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#2

Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

08/30/2019 9:21 AM

“NASA is effectively forecasting a return to the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) but gives no mention of the brutal cold, crop loss, famine, war and powerful Volcanic eruptions associated with it…”

OK, I can see cold, crop loss, and perhaps wars, but how does the sun activity cause earthquakes and volcanos?

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#3
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

08/30/2019 9:40 AM

Extremely high energy photons that pierce the Earth's crust and promote more fission reactions in our core.

If you believe that one, I can sell you some shares on the Brooklyn Bridge toll revenue.

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#4
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

08/30/2019 10:28 AM

It didn't mention earthquakes, though they commonly go with volcanoes. You have a good point. Just because a volcano happened last time doesn't mean it will this time. But the site pointed out NASA's downplaying of the implications - maybe because they don't have much faith in their own predictions? Do you have any?

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#7
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

08/30/2019 2:42 PM

GWB traded in his hurricane machine for an earthquake machine. Which he gifted to DJT without a proper background check. DJT entered into a trade deal with Putin for a Soviet era volcano machine, hence the Russkie Eruption

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#8

Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

08/30/2019 5:17 PM

Credit to the source: (SILSO data/image, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels):

http://www.sidc.be/silso/dayssnplot

Notice that there are two very different predictions for sunspots in 2020, the lower SC predictions and the higher CM predictions. I predict that the actual sunspots will fall between those two lines.

Note that there are other solar data besides sunspots. There is the SFI index, the A, the K, X-rays, etc. (See the Solar Ham link in the OP).

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#44
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/24/2019 1:44 PM

I have further predictions for the above chart:

If the sunspot actual numbers are at or above the CM predictions then a Democrat will be the next POTUS.

If the sunspot actual numbers are at or below the SC predictions then President Trump will remain in office another 4 years.

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#46
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

10/04/2019 11:40 AM

So if the solar gopher has a sunspot to pop out of, it will be four years of political misery and if there are no sunspots for it to pop out of, then there will be four more years of political misery? I sense a common thread.

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#9

Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

08/30/2019 6:55 PM

I predict that the sun will rise tomorrow morning.

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#10
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

08/31/2019 12:25 AM

But a monster is heading this way ...

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#11
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

08/31/2019 12:50 AM

I hope you are secure there, or have gone where it is safe.

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#15
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

08/31/2019 4:06 PM

Well I've got to say I was a little worried, the forecast had the eye of the hurricane passing directly over me, and a cat 4 looking like it might be a cat 5 when it arrives is a scary thing to be sure...plus you can't really get away anywhere there's no gas, no hotel motel rooms available flights are totally booked, you are trapped and must face the storm and fight to survive as best you can...but it looks like the storm is veering off to the west, so if it holds that path everything should be fine....

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#22
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/03/2019 7:46 PM

The models used for the spaghetti charts seem to be unable to predict storms' behaviors in your neck of the woods. Accuracy seems to be limited to 24 to 48 hours.

I've noted a good number of storms in the Florida area that seem to stymie the forecasters. Once they're in the Gulf of Mexico, they seem to have a pretty good track record. Or once they're in the Atlantic from about Savannah, GA on up they are pretty good. But Florida really seems to trip them up.

Glad to hear you're just getting brushed by the outer bands.

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#12
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

08/31/2019 10:42 AM

A story on c n n . Is that fake news ?

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#14
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

08/31/2019 11:18 AM

If it's China/Nazi News it probably is.

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#13
In reply to #9

Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

08/31/2019 11:15 AM

It's great of you to go out on a limb like that. Be sure to wear some sunscreen, especially if you go out naked.

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#16
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

08/31/2019 9:09 PM

It already has!

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#17
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

08/31/2019 11:06 PM

I predict we're going to have solar cooling, but that will be offset by global warming, and everything will be as it was....er is...+-1°...

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#18

Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/01/2019 12:08 AM
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#19

Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/02/2019 7:58 AM

One thing that scientists seem to forget is that there may be Galactic weather cycle patterns as well as Solar.

The solar wind varies with sunspot activity and consequently the amount of cosmic rays reaching earth.

Cosmic rays influence cloud formation and lightning paths on Earth,and the sun's magnetic field varies,thus the number of cosmic rays reaching us also varies.

https://ktwop.com/2011/08/25/its-the-sun-stupid-svensmark-vindicated-cern-shows-cosmic-rays-do-influence-cloud-formation/

I know that it would take millions of years for one complete galactic rotation,but our relationship with the the other matter and energy in the galaxy is in a constant state of flux.

When all of the possible factors are considered,it is impossible to narrow the effects down to a few causes.

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#20
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/02/2019 8:41 AM

One of the most difficult to grasp concepts modern, quantum mechanical Physics brings to Science is the concept of a purely random process. Some things happen in quantum mechanics without an external triggering event.

Please, do not take this wrong. You are absolutely correct that some unknown or just unobserved galactic weather aspects may play a part in the sun's "weird" behavior. But an external trigger or the lack of a trigger is not necessary when observing the quantum mechanical Physics of our star's fusion conversion of mass to energy.

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#21

Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/03/2019 4:47 PM
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#23

Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/05/2019 1:17 AM

I object to the notion of "scientists (are) baffled." If scientists are baffled, then everyone else is even more baffled. Scientists may be surprised or puzzled temporarily by some as yet unknown or uninvestigated phenomenon, but that doesn't mean "baffled." On the contrary, they can probably figure out some ways to interrogate the matter. "Baffled scientists" is a silly fiction from superstitionists.

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#24
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/05/2019 1:44 PM

Perhaps flummoxed would be a better description.

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#25
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/05/2019 3:47 PM

Or perhaps not.

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#26
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/05/2019 4:33 PM

Is that because scientists know better than everyone else? Sounds elitist to me.

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#28
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/05/2019 11:58 PM

So what? Scientists may be the only bona fide elite there is. Political and religious "elites" simply do not qualify for such a term.

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#33
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/08/2019 8:53 PM

You have brought shame to the profession of the editor.

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#34
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/08/2019 9:04 PM

There is no need for name calling here. Just ignore those who you disagree with. I know it can be difficult, but try. Too many times threads get distracted by petty arguments.

Do you have any comment on any of the links I posted in post 31?

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#35
In reply to #34

Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/09/2019 2:44 PM

An editor is supposed to correct documents as requested so that the author does not come across poorly.

Instead this guy uses his dimwit title to make other feel poorly about the most menial errors. Without request or need.

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#36
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/09/2019 3:37 PM

No wonder you are posting anonymously. I too would would ashamed of such nonsense.

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#32
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/07/2019 7:06 PM

Scientists dont really know better than everyone else, they just know their thing better than everyone else.

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#37
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/09/2019 3:47 PM

Perhaps they could resort to "Astonished".

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#27
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/05/2019 4:59 PM
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#29
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/06/2019 12:04 AM

"Buffaloed" isn't any better. Your list of headlines saying "baffled" proves only that silliness is popular.

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#30

Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/06/2019 7:49 AM

Seems to me this discussion has degenerated into a war of words,syntax instead of ideas.

Too bad.Could have been an illuminating topic.

(unsubscribe)

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#31

Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/06/2019 6:32 PM
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#38
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/09/2019 4:04 PM

Not so weird. Temperature is an indicator of particle velocity and a tightly constrained low velocity particle may contain more total energy than a free-moving particle with a higher velocity, but the free moving particle would indicate a higher temperature.

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#39
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/09/2019 4:34 PM

If that were so, the scientists wouldn't have been perplexed for 70 years.

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#40
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/09/2019 5:50 PM

Maybe their brains must be too highly trained.

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#41

Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/12/2019 4:58 PM

“We see a cooling trend,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center:

https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/

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#42

Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/12/2019 5:21 PM

Anybody actually bother to look at the link on 21?

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#43
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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

09/12/2019 7:32 PM

Not everyone is on Farcebook.

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Re: Scientists Baffled by Sun's Weird Behavior

11/01/2019 11:24 PM
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